Economista Jefe y Director Adjunto Centro de Desarrollo OCDE COHERENCIA DE POLITICAS PARA EL DESARROLLO : ¿Qué sabemos? ¿Qué podemos hacer? Javier Santiso Economista Jefe y Director Adjunto Centro de Desarrollo OCDE Madrid  Julio de 2006

Coherencia de políticas - el caso de las enfermeras de Malawi - Ayuda británica al sector salud de Malawi La fuga de talentos de Malawi “There are more nurses from Malawi in Manchester, UK, than in Malawi…” These African health care workers had been lured North by work permits targeted at health-care workers, in short supply in many OECD countries. Last year Malawi trained 80 nurses but in the same period 100 nurses left to work in the UK. It is not hard to see why the Malawi nurse is attracted to migrate to more wealthy countries since a fully qualified nurse only makes about 50 euros per month in Malawi. However, it must be borne in mind that Malawi is among the poorest countries in the world with poor health indicators, for example an adult HIV incidence rate of 14 percent, and is among the places in the world with the greatest need for health-care workers. Why is this a question for policy coherence? At the same time as nurses are being snatched from Malawi by the health sector in the UK, the UK development-assistance policy channel sizeable resources into the Malawian health-care sector. UK provided $120 million in aid overall to Malawi in 2004; UK also committed £100 million over 6 years starting in 2005. From a purely theoretical standpoint, the UK could conceivably have recruited fewer Malawian nurses but at the same time reduced health-related aid to Malawi and UK and Malawian societies might have been “better off,” or at least no worse off: the UK public would have fewer nurses, but more resources (from its aid savings) with which to address the problem, while the Malawian public would have more nurses, though less aid. The UK is of course not the only country in the OECD to benefit from health worker migrants. However, it is the only country, so far, to develop ethical guidelines governing the international recruitment of health-care workers. The ethical guidelines restrict recruitment from over 150 developing countries, and since December last year, this code also covers recruitment to the private health enterprises. Fuente: OCDE, 2005 Fuente: OCDE, 2000

La importancia de la coherencia de políticas 1 La importancia de la coherencia de políticas 2 El concepto de coherencia de políticas 3 Flujos, interacciones, impactos (a) Comercio y ayuda (b) Comercio y migración (c) Remesas y desarrollo Our presentation is organised in four parts…

La importancia de la coherencia de políticas ¿Por qué hablamos de coherencia? El costo de incoherencia se incrementa, por tres razones: La legitimidad política aumenta la presión por una arquitectura global más transparente e inclusiva. La globalización y la liberalización aumentan los beneficios potenciales de la interdependencia y la integración. Nuevos orígenes del riesgo, asuntos (la seguridad, el ambiente, las enfermedades, la migración) que requieren respuestas coherentes. Basically we are talking about policy coherence today because the need for different ministries – development cooperation, finance, trade, defence, etc. – to talk to each other is more apparent than in the past, and yet they are still not talking to each other sufficiently. Why is this need more apparent now? [READ list from the slide]

La importancia de la coherencia de políticas 1 La importancia de la coherencia de políticas 2 El concepto de coherencia de políticas 3 Flujos, interacciones, impactos (a) Comercio y ayuda (b) Comercio y migración (c) Remesas y desarrollo Our presentation is organised in four parts…

El concepto de coherencia de políticas AID: Growth and poverty reduction INVESTMENT: Expands Productive Capabilities MIGRATION: Enhances Income Opportunities TRADE: Expands Consumption Possibilities AID POLICY… --- … promotes infrastructure and human-capital investment, reduces investment costs … capacity building, market integration in home country … promotes trade capacity building in LDCs and demand for rich- country goods and services FOREIGN INVESTMENT POLICY… … raises human and physical capital stock in LDC; promotes local enterprise development … expands employment opportunities in LDCs … enhances linkages to foreign markets; creates business networks; increases export capacity; upgrades quality standards MIGRATION POLICY… … induces remittances, lowers unemployment, can contribute to skill formation, productivity increases … encourages brain circulation and technology transfers; expands savings …encourages trading opportunities and networks TRADE POLICY… … promotes growth … enhances market access …increases wages At the top of each column, the explicit objective of each policy vector is given: thus, the objective of aid policy, according to the Millennium Development Goals, is to promote poverty reduction in developing countries. Across the rows, the Figure lists impacts of one policy on the objectives of another: thus, aid spending might, in addition to reducing poverty, promote the objectives of foreign-investment policy if aid finances physical and human capital accumulation that attracts foreign direct investment to an aid-receiving country. Note that for development practitioners, the effects listed in the first column are the most pressing: that is, how do non-aid policies affect the objectives of development-assistance policy?

El concepto de coherencia de políticas Pre-existing structural and institutional characteristics, cultural practices Policy decisions and use of instruments 4 major policy areas Aid Trade Migration Investment Developing country policies Capacity building Economic management Structural policies Governance culture Social policies Developing country OECD countries Behavioural responses by households and firms Impact Poverty Growth Inequality Governance, etc. Research on policy coherence must identify the transmission mechanisms from relevant policy vectors of rich countries and assess their effects – direct and indirect - on developing economies (e.g., individual, households, firms, social groups and government). Such effects may vary significantly from one country to another, reflecting differences in existing structural and institutional characteristics and policies of developing countries. Availability of both micro and macro data is essential to identify the transmission mechanisms and understand how different policy vectors of rich countries may interact on development in a specific country context. The impact of policies might be analysed in terms of economic growth, poverty reduction, effects on absolute and relative inequality, and governance. Fuente: OCDE Centro de Desarrollo, 2006.

La importancia de la coherencia de políticas 1 La importancia de la coherencia de políticas 2 El concepto de coherencia de políticas 3 Flujos, interacciones, impactos (a) Comercio y ayuda (b) Comercio y migración (c) Remesas y desarrollo Our presentation is organised in four parts…

Flujos, interacciones, impactos This figure depicts concentration curves, which represent the distribution of a given variable among a population. The population in this case is the population of aid-receiving countries, ranked along the horizontal axis according to income per capita. Thus an x-y pair of coordinates on one of these curves shows that the poorest x percent of the developing world’s population receives y percent of the variable in question. If the poorest 25 percent of the developing world received 25 percent of FDI flows to the developing world, the concentration curve would be a 45° line. The further a curve sags beneath the 45° line, the more regressive is the distribution of that variable; for ODA (in blue), the curve lies above the 45° line, indicating a progressive or pro-poor distribution of aid. The grey line is PPP GDP – the Lorenz curve. Exports to the OECD, FDI from the OECD, and migrants living in the OECD, however, are all regressive. – more regressively distributed than income. In sum… [next slide] Fuente: Centro de Desarrollo OCDE (2006)

Flujos, interacciones, impactos Lo que nos dicen los datos: La ayuda al desarrollo se concentra en los países más pobres. La inversión extranjera directa, sin embargo, se concentra en países relativamente ricos y emergentes. Las ganancias por exportaciones a la OCDE fluyen igualmente a los países más prósperos y emergentes. Los emigrantes que viven en la OCDE vienen principalmente de países relativamente ricos y emergentes. The concentration curves tell us that… [READ the slide]

La importancia de la coherencia de políticas 1 La importancia de la coherencia de políticas 2 El concepto de coherencia de políticas 3 Flujos, interacciones, impactos (a) Comercio y ayuda (b) Comercio y migración (c) Remesas y desarrollo Our presentation is organised in four parts…

Comercio y ayuda: incoherencia Casos famosos de incoherencia: Subvenciones estadounidenses a sus productores de algodón, 2002: $3.9 mil millones; AOD de E.E.U.U. a todos los países del África subsahariana, 2002: $2.3 mil millones. Pérdidas sufridas por exportadores de países en desarrollo por el Acuerdo Multifibras ($50 mil millones/año en los 1990s) + ayuda al desarrollo CAD ($50 mil millones/año en los 1990s). Four West African cotton-producing countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali) have worked tirelessly to draw international attention to the incoherence of trade-distorting subsidies to cotton producers in the OECD, valued at $3.9 billion in the US in 2002, according to Oxfam. This amount largely exceeds US official development assistance (ODA) to all of sub-Saharan Africa in the same year ($2.3 billion); US ODA to the four West African countries in question was $90 million in 2002. In the textiles and cotton cases, OECD countries devoted considerable resources to enhancing integration of developing countries into the global economy; simultaneously, OECD countries committed equal or larger resources to throwing obstacles in the path of those same developing countries' attempts to benefit from economic integration.

Ayuda y comercio: ¿sustitutos? Comercio y ayuda Ayuda y comercio: ¿sustitutos? ¿Deberían los países de la OCDE reducir aún más las distorsiones comerciales, especialmente en agricultura, o simplemente aumentar la ayuda? AYUDA: La ayuda facilita directamente recursos adicionales para inversiones; el acceso al mercado sólo indirectamente. COMERCIO: si el acceso al mercado permite a exportadores de los países menos desarrollados ser más eficientes al ‘aprender haciendo’, los beneficios dinámicos del acceso al mercado podrían ser mayores que los de la ayuda. What is more valuable to a developing country, a dollar of aid, or a dollar of market access (which might be granted by reducing tariffs or other barriers to trade)? The classic answer is “aid”, because it represents a direct transfer of investable resources, while market access transfers resources only indirectly – via export revenues. But it may be that the answer is “trade”, especially if there are dynamic effects upon productivity, as exporting firms in the developing country learn to be more productive over time.

La importancia de la coherencia de políticas 1 La importancia de la coherencia de políticas 2 El concepto de coherencia de políticas 3 Flujos, interacciones, impactos (a) Comercio y ayuda (b) Comercio y migración (c) Remesas y desarrollo Our presentation is organised in four parts…

Sustitutos: el ejemplo clásico Comercio y migración Sustitutos: el ejemplo clásico La liberalización global del comercio, a largo plazo, lleva a los países pobres a especializarse en sectores que utilizan a los trabajadores no cualificados relativamente intensivamente. Con una tasa de empleo y/o sueldos más altos, menos trabajadores no cualificados emigrarían. PERO el “largo plazo” puede durar muchas décadas (35 años, según Brücker (2005)). Trade theory suggests that providing developing countries with greater opportunities for exporting their goods might reduce out-migration pressures. Indeed, at the time of ratification of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) treaty, the US President suggested Mexicans who would otherwise migrate to the US would instead stay at home and work in new export industries. How does this work? [READ slide]

Comercio y migración Complementos: con mayor integración tanto los flujos de bienes como los de personas aumentan Inmigrantes Mexicanos a los EEUU (residentes permanentes) Comercio entre los EEUU y México These two graphs show that after the NAFTA agreement came into force in 1994, not only trade has increased between Mexico and the US, but also the number of immigrants from Mexico to the US. This is an example of complementarity between trade and migration flows. Unfortunately there exist no good data on the number of illegal immigrants from Mexico to the US and, therefore the numbers in the graph are most probably highly under-estimated. Fuente: Departamento de Comercio, EEUU, 2006. Fuente: US Homeland Security, 2006.

La importancia de la coherencia de políticas 1 La importancia de la coherencia de políticas 2 El concepto de coherencia de políticas 3 Flujos, interacciones, impactos (a) Comercio y ayuda (b) Comercio y migración (c) Remesas y desarrollo Our presentation is organised in four parts…

Las remesas han crecido más que los flujos de ayuda y de IED... Remesas y desarrollo Las remesas han crecido más que los flujos de ayuda y de IED... En términos absolutos… …como en porcentaje del PIB

Remesas y desarrollo Los flujos de remesas son particularmente importantes hacia países de renta baja… Miles de Millones de Dólares 21.7 21.3 18.1 12.7 11.6 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.4 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3 2.8 5 10 15 20 25 India China México Francia Filipinas España Bélgica Alemania Reino Unido Marruecos Serbia Pakistán Brasil Bangladesh Egipto, Rep. Árabe Portugal Vietnam Colombia Estados Unidos Nigeria Fracción del PIB 31.1 27.1 25.8 24.8 22.5 20.4 17.4 17.2 16.2 15.5 13.5 13.2 12.4 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.3 10 5 15 20 25 30 35 Tonga Moldavia Lesotho Haití Bosnia y Herzegovina Jordania Jamaica Serbia y Montenegro EI Salvador Honduras Filipinas Rep. Dominicana Líbano Samoa Tayikistán Nicaragua Albania Nepal Kiribati Yemen, Rep. Fuente: Basado en OCDE y Banco Mundial, 2006.

La cuestión central : ¿Cómo explotar la bonanza de las remesas? Remesas y desarrollo La cuestión central : ¿Cómo explotar la bonanza de las remesas? Usos de remesas en México en 2004 % del total 78.0 7.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 Bienes de Consumo Educación Ahorro Otros Inversión Hogares Fuente: Centro de Desarrollo de la OCDE basado en IADB/FOMIN y Pew Hispanic Center, 2005.

Remesas y desarrollo Estos flujos tienen impactos importantes en la clasificación del endeudamiento de un país Fuente: Centro de Desarrollo OCDE basado en datos de 2003, Banco Mundial, 2005.

Remesas y desarrollo Las remesas pueden permitir una mayor solvencia y facilitar el acceso al crédito… Clasificación de Endeudamiento según remesas 100 200 300 400 500 Argentina Perú Brasil Colombia Ecuador Chile Venezuela México Deuda como %de exportaciones Deuda/Exportaciones Deuda/(Exportaciones + Remesas -3.9% -9.3% -5.5% -17.2% -24.5% -3.4% -3.5% -7.6% Fuente: Centro de Desarrollo, OCDE, 2006. Basado sobre: “Economic Implications of Remittances and Migration”, Banco Mundial, 2006.

Remesas y desarrollo …que a su vez podría tener un efecto positivo sobre la evaluación de la deuda soberana Determinantes de la Evaluación de Deuda Soberana Mejoras potenciales de la evaluación de la deuda soberana por remesas AAA Evaluación S&P (Mayo 2006) AA A+ A+ A S&P Potencial con Remesas A- BBB+ BBB BBB BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB BB BB BB BB- BB- B+ B B B- CCC+ CCC+ CCC- C México Colombia Venezuela Ecuador Chile Brasil Perú Argentina Fuente: Centro de Desarrollo, OCDE, 2006. Basado en: Rowland, P. “Determinants of Spread, Credit Ratings and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Follow-Up Study Using Pooled Data Analysis”. Banco de la República de Colombia, 2005.

Para obtener más información: www.oecd.org/dev

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