1 Cybernetics and Systems Theory: Challenges, Opportunities & Examples for Advancing Social Theory 5th Biennial International Congress on the Philosophical, Epistemological and Methodological Implications of Complexity Theory Havana, Cuba, January Steven E. Wallis, Ph.D. Director, Foundation for the Advancement of Social Theory Fellow, Institute for Social Innovation, Fielding Graduate University

2 World Problems need a Revolution in Social Theory War Poverty Crime Ignorance Uncertainty Revolutions in social theory will generate revolutions in practice of the same scope as revolutions in agriculture, industry, electricity, & computers. Los problemas mundiales necesitan una revolución en la teoría social

3 In all these chapters, we strive for a challenge – a revolution in theory… …Of course, Thomas Kuhn… Described importance of paradigm Revolution A revolution based on empirical analysis Problem: Did not define “how much change” is revolutionary. Did not define revolution in terms of theory Descrito importancia de paradigma Revolución Una revolución basada en el análisis empírico Problema: no se define un "cambio de cuánto" es revolucionaria. No define la revolución en términos de la teoría

4 This is a “new logic” Based on complexity theory. We are quantifying the ratio of emergence / co- causality in a body of theory. Measuring Theory for Paradigm Revolution Se trata de un “nuevo logica” Basado en la teoría de la complejidad. Estamos cuantificando la proporción de emergencia / co- causalidad en un cuerpo de teoría.

5 This Analysis Cuantifica emergencia mediante la identificación de la RELACIÓN entre el número total de ideas, y las ideas que son emergentes. ¿Cuál es la relación entre la estructura de la teoría y la revolución de paradigma de Kuhn? Quantifies Emergence by identifying the RATIO between the total number of ideas, and the ideas that are emergent. What is the relationship between the structure of theory and Kuhnian paradigm revolution?

6 For Example… Plutarch’s Theory 100 CE Magnet Pushes Air Pushes Iron Exhalations Rubbing Pushes Small Objects Amber Exhalations Pushes Air Ratio of Robustness = 0.14 (one emergent idea divided by seven total ideas) Linear logic  One emergent idea

7 Gilbert 1600 CE Robustness of 0.21 (three emergent aspects divided by 14 total aspects) Better – but mostly linear emergent ideas

8 Coulomb 1785 CE Robustness of 1.0 (three emergent aspects divided by three total aspects) CHARGEFORCE DISTANCE Note: co- causality of the logic Revolution! Kuhn says this theory is of the paradigmatic revolution. Thus, it may also be said that a robustness of 1.0 is a revolutionary version of theory.

9 Ratio of Emergent Ideas in a Theory (also relates to effectiveness in application) Revolution! Proporción de las ideas emergentes en una teoría

10 Change in Aspects over Time Number of Emergent Ideas Total Ideas in Each Theory

11 Effectiveness of Some Theories Benchmark: Encuesta Marca: More Revolution Less Revolution Institutional Theory – 0.31 Peak Performance Theory – 0.17 Organizational Learning Theory – 0.16 Structure of Ethics – 0.25 Integral Theory – 0.10 Social Entrepreneurship Theory – 0.13 Complex Adaptive Systems Theory – 0.63 Complexity Theory – 0.56

12 The bird of science cannot fly with one wing. We need empirical analysis AND robust theory. El pájaro de la ciencia no puede volar con un ala. Es necesario el análisis empírico Y la teoría robusta.

13 We need to measure the Robustness / Emergence of theory to make better theory and achieve paradigm revolution. The potential benefits to humanity are very large (socially, psychologically, economically). Tenemos que medir la robustez / surgimiento de la teoría para hacer mejor la teoría de la revolución y lograr el paradigma. Los beneficios potenciales para la humanidad son muy grandes (social, psicológica, económica). Using emergent / robust theory will provide advantages to researcher, organizations, and nations. Usando emergentes / sólidos que la teoría proporcionará ventajas a los investigadores, organizaciones y naciones.

14 Muchas Gracias Steven E. Wallis, Ph.D. Director, FAST Fellow, Institute for Social Innovation, Fielding Graduate University Fielding Graduate University is a 501 c (3) non-profit university of higher learning.