Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina – LA 29 Universidad.

Presentación del tema: "Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina – LA 29 Universidad."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina – LA 29 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto Fac.de Agr. y Vet.- Agrometeorología | Fac. Ciencias Económicas - Dpto.Economía Session III: Observed Climate Variability Agriculture,Water and Climate Variability Cecilia Conde, Carlos Gay, Marta Vinocur, Roberto Seiler, Francisco Estrada First Latin American and the Caribbean Regional Workshop of AIACC Projects 27-30 May, 2003, San José –Costa Rica

2 Agriculture, Water and Climate Variability Premise: Variability is critical to both agricultural impacts and adaptation Goal: To study relationship between climate variability and agricultural production and yields (national and regional level) Activities: Trend analysis (climate and production) Identify climate variables (indices) critical to production Identify areas of high drought risk Describe coping ranges of selected crops from the regions Data: Soybeans, sunflower, wheat, maize, peanut (Argentina) Sorghum, safflower, coffee, maize (Mexico) Streamflow and dam levels (Mexico)

3 Coffee production, climate and socioeconomic conditions. Veracruz Production 1969 – 1998 P (State) = - k1*minimum salary -k2* summer temperature + C R2 = 0.69

4 Production 1969 – 1998 P (State) = - k1*Farm Gate Price – k2 * Log (pcp(jja) –k3*Log (tmp(jja) +C R2 = 0.58 Coffee production, climate and socioeconomic conditions (cont)

5 Drought Flood Drought Crop Losses due to extreme climate events (Tamaulipas)

6 Marcos Juárez (MJ) County (Córdoba) Maize Yields (1961-1999)

7 Río Cuarto (RC) County (Córdoba) Maize Yields (1961-1999)

8 Río Cuarto (RC) County - Maize Yields (1961-1999) Jones et al., NCSP workshop2000 Coping Ranges

9 Marcos Juárez (MJ) County - Maize Yields (1961-1999)

10 1990 1980 2000 82 92 84 86 88 94 96 98 Sequía (mar -mayo 82) Sequía Brasil Calor, frio, lluvias dañosos (nov-dic 86) Helada severa (dic 89) Sequía (otoño 90) Ola de calor (mayo 95) Lluvias fuertes (mayo 97), huracán Paulina (oct), helada (dic) Sequía (mayo-jun 98), Heladas (oct 99) Sequía (abr. 00) Desaparación del sistema de cuotas Re-estructuración de INMECAFE Buscan alternativas Crisis, rescate, nueva política Problemas en comercialización, incrementos en costos de producción enfoque en cantidad, no calidad Sector social no maneja bien beneficios. Problemas de calidad. Venta de terrenos. Emigración. Escazes en mano de obra. Problemas financieros. Precios se desrumban. Emigración. Costos se incrementan La broca Caída en precios Caída en los precios Solidaridad, Art. 27 Repunte

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