INDC Forms: MAPS Experience SADC REGIONAL WORKSHOP IN PURSUANCE OF A CONSOLIDATED AND UNIFIED AFRICAN POSITION IN CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS Marta Torres 8 April 2015, Pretoria, South Africa

MAPS COLLABORATION AMONGST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Main collaboration amongst Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa Co-producing knowledge: process and research interface, change theory Development first approach Under multi-Ministerial mandates Driven by stakeholders: inclusive and multi-actor processes Made by local research and process teams With the aim to provide evidence and options to decision-makers Based on the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS) process ( , South Africa) Main collaboration amongst Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa Co-producing knowledge: process and research interface, change theory Development first approach Under multi-Ministerial mandates Driven by stakeholders: inclusive and multi-actor processes Made by local research and process teams With the aim to provide evidence and options to decision-makers Based on the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS) process ( , South Africa) Brasil Chile Colombia Peru On-going national processes

It builds on discussions initiated under the MAPS Programme in the INDC Lab (Lima,July 2014), together with subsequent research and national experiences in Peru, Chile, Colombia and South Africa. Motivation: the considerations for choosing a particular form are multiple, interdependent and context specific, and related literature is incipient. Outlines a subset of three economy-wide mitigation commitment forms: ‘Intensity targets’, ‘Deviation below a BAU specified ex ante’ and ‘Trajectories’ Authored by Marta Torres, Andrea Rudnick, Sofía Gonzales, Harald Winkler, Andrés Pirazzoli and Pía Zevallos Draft working paper, published December 2014 Available at: Paper: Thoughts on the choice of form Paper information

Paper: Thoughts on the choice of form Based on: Thoughts on the choice of form The form of the contribution should not be, by itself, a primary indicator of the level of ambition.

Paper: Thoughts on the choice of form Based on: Thoughts on the choice of form The form and the way it is communicated and visualized, is distinct from the scale of the mitigation effort.

Paper: Thoughts on the choice of form Based on: Thoughts on the choice of form Main considerations in the choice of a form Three features could be used to assess the form of contribution selected by parties: Science-driven requirements - Environmental integrity: cumulative GHG emissions, with the emissions level up to 2050 and beyond; time horizon and peaking National policy development-driven requirements - Achieving development outcomes - Endorsement of domestic constituencies Data and information requirements - Assessment of adequacy at global level - Data burden of ex-post assessments

Paper: Thoughts on the choice of form Based on: Thoughts on the choice of form Main considerations in the choice of a form Data requirements are similar among the different forms, therefore it does not greatly influence the choice of form. Differences regarding the science-based requirements can be overcome. This is mainly done by identifying the peaking year, being more explicit on the path towards the goal or annexing a longer term perspective. UFIs are relevant to ensure transparency at national and international level, serving two main purposes: assessing joint ambition level and fairness of individual contributions. We argue that UFI can easily be standardized across forms. Therefore we conclude that the main factor to inform the choice of the form is the policy development needs. It will be crucial to achieve the flexibility needed by countries in the face of the unknown, whilst ensuring environmental integrity.

Paper: Thoughts on the choice of form Based on: Thoughts on the choice of form Both the scale and the form of the contribution need to respond to the strategy of a country to domestically transition to a low carbon society. Importance of linking iNDC narrative to existing development agendas Flexibility, not ambiguity Perception, not just at international level – also at home The ‘long term’ story – even if aspirational, very important The adaptation component

The INDC mitigation package Numbers Form Narratives: domestic and international that support numbers Contributions are not only based on technical numbers but are a package that should be carefully designed, including Scope Technical dimension Political dimension Paper: Thoughts on the choice of form Not just the form and the numbers Based on: Thoughts on the choice of form

Thank you Marta Torres Gunfaus MAPS Director MAPS Programme: Energy Research Centre: E:

La colaboración regional entre los países LAC ocurre a través de: Talleres temáticos (4 talleres anuales entre el 2012 y 2015), Colaboración bilateral entre países en temas de investigación y proceso, Elaboración de papers de investigación y proceso. En materia de INDC: Taller iNDC, Lima, Julio Working paper: Thoughts on the choice of form of an INDC con autores de MAPS Internacional, Sudáfrica, Peru y Chile. Presentaciones conjuntas en sesiones ADP y otras actividades en el marco de UNFCCC. La colaboración regional ha contribuido a compartir los arreglos institucionales para la elaboración y aprobación de la INDC (e.j. Chile, Colombia y Perú tienen Comités Directivos inter ministeriales). La colaboración regional ha fomentado debates técnicos sobre los tipos de contribuciones y narrativas comunes en la región, como la competitividad y cooperacion sur-sur. Plataforma de colaboración

Curva costo abatimiento TOTAL  77 medidas de mitigación. Total reducciones de 5900 millones tCO2eq. 2.Medidas por sector = Energía: 28; Transporte:10; Procesos industriales: 8; Agricultura: 8; LULUCF: 15; Residuos: 8

Escenarios mitigación de PlanCC-Perú

USCUSS Efectos de la mitigación sobre el PIB Resultados macroeconómicos Efectos mínimos sobre el PIB en el corto plazo, que se compensan en el largo plazo Medidas mitigación tienen un VAN positive, incrementa la productividad de los factores Existen beneficios para la sociedad producto de las externalidades ambientales