UNFPAS View on Population: an Economic Analysis. Alejandro Cid Universidad de Montevideo Agosto 2003 – 2a. Versión Mayo 2007

* State of World Population (2002) * Visión Malthusiana: Crecimiento de la población daña desarrollo económico

¿Interesa? * Recursos destinados a control de la población: US$ mill *Costo de oportunidad *Costos indirectos: buscadores de renta. *Desvío de atención

Julian Simon – Univ. of Maryland

n Iwo Jima Memorial: Here before us lie the bodies of comrades and friends. Men who until yesterday or last week laughed with us, joked with us, trained with us… Some where in this plot of ground there may lie the man who could have discovered the cure for cancer…

n Have I gone crazy? Each one could be Mozart or a Michelangelo or an Einstein, or simply a joy to his or her family and community, and a person who will enjoy life.

Debilidades de Malthusianos: 1.- Datos estadísticos 2.- Causalidad y correlación 3.- Recursos fijos 4.- Subestima capital humano 5.- Envejecimiento de la población 6.- Problema Planificación (Información atomizada y Public Choice: maximizadores de votos, benef… )

Conclusión: * No fuerte evidencia, ni empírica ni teórica, que sustente posición Malthusiana * Hay evidencia que sugiere lo contrario

Malthus y Neomalthusianos 1.- Persp. desarrollista 2.- Persp. redistribucionista 3.- Persp. recusos limitados 4.- Persp. socio-biológica 5.- Persp. personas como fuente de inestabilidad (Furedi, Kelley, 2003)

Críticas a las profecías de Matlhus y Neomalthusianos 1. Datos estadísticos: * Revolución verde (alimentos, calorías y proteínas per cápita) * Mortalidad Infantil cayó 50% * Desnutrición cayó 25% * Alfabetización, educación primaria y secundaria. (Banco Mundial; FAO; HCPS; HRIA)

This figure underestimates the extent of the improvement in world food supply. Because it shows food production, it does not take into account the increase in the amount of food that actually reaches consumers due to lower losses over the year as a result of improvements in transportation and storage.

2. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc * Etiopía International Food Policy Research Institute * Civil War and Development (Banco Mundial, 2003) * Degradación calidad de la tierra (Pender, 2003)

3. Malthusianos subestiman capital humano * Nueva persona = Nuevo estómago * 1968: Hardin, Tragedy of the Commons (Ostrom, 1999)

The main fuel speed to the worlds progress is our stock of knowledge, and the brake is our lack of imagination Julian Simon

The ultimate resource is people – skilled, spirited, hopeful people – who will exert their wills and imaginations for their own benefit as well as in a spirit if faith and social concern. Julian Simon.

Corto plazo, nuevo niño: - Más gasto - Menor atención y capital para hermanos - Más ruido para vecinos - Menos trabajo cuando entra al mercado laboral

Largo plazo, nuevo niño: - Producirá bienes y servicios; - Pagará impuestos y aportes a seguridad social y seguros de salud; - Contribuirá con ideas, sangre nueva y recursos; - Hará esfuerzos para cuidar y mejorar medio ambiente Julian Simon

¿Efecto final de un niño más o un inmigrante más? Depende de las preferencias (más vacas per cápita hoy o más niños hoy), de la tasa de descuento (consumir un dólar hoy frente a consumir más de un dólar mañana). Travel now, pay later vs. Pay now, benefit from the child later

Una inversión: The most of the costs of children are paid by their parents rather than by the community, whereas the community gets the lions share of the benefits later on. Thus, investment in children improve the social economics of children. Julian Simon

4. Ceteris Paribus * Dotación fija de: alimentos, dinero, capital, servicios públicos… ( ¿y el largo plazo?)

A higher price represents an opportunity that leads inventors and businesspeople to seek new ways to satisfy the shortages. A few succeed, and the final result is that we end up better off than if the original shoratge problems had never arisen. Julian Simon.

Forecast Raw Materials? It depends on: a) the rate of movement from richer to poorer ores and mining locations; b) the continued development of technology (which is increasing).

We view natural resources as we view the operation of a single copper mine: dig some ore, and less is left. But we constantly create new mines and replenish the inventory of copper: -by discovering; -by recycling; -by technology; -by new commercial demands -by improved efficency of copper use

Shun like the plague any investments in mutual funds that deal in commodities. They are sure losers in the long run Julian Simon

The various data suggest the anti- intuitive conclusion that, even as we use coal and oil and iron and other natural resources, they are becoming less scarce (market prices deflacted by CPI or by IMS reflect it)

There is one resource that has shown a trend of increasing scarcity rather than increasing abundace: human beings: the wages and salaries have been going up all over the world, in poor countries as well as in rich countries, throughout preceding decades and centuries Julian Simon

5. Población envejeciéndose * Reducción de t. de fertilidad + aumento de esperanza de vida. * Sistemas de pensiones * Servicios sociales y salud * Presupuestos fiscales

*Ageing, Optimal National Saving and Future Living Standards in Australia. - Ross S Guest and Ian M McDonald The Economic Record 2001 *Ageing and the Challenges of New Technologies: Can OECD Social and Healthcare Systems Provide for the Future? Stephane Jacobzone The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance 2003 *Population Ageing In New Zealand: Implications for Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving - Ross Guest, John Bryant and Grant Scobie New Zealand Treasury 2003

* Modelling the Effect of Population Ageing on Government Social Expenditures - John Bryant New Zealand Treasury 2003 *The Brazilian pension system: recent reforms and challenges ahead - Marcos Bonturi OECD Economics Department 2002 *Coping with population ageing in Hungary Andrew Burns and Jaromir Cekota OECD Economics Department 2002

Conclusiones: 1. No fuerte evidencia, ni empírica ni teórica, que sustente posición Malthusiana 2. Hay evidencia que sugiere lo contrario

Para posterior análisis: * Si serias dudas, ¿por qué continuan asignando recursos a control de la población?

Es tiempo de reconocer que el problema del desarrollo, la pobreza y la contaminación, es consecuencia de factores políticos y económicos, no de la población. (Aguirre, 2000)