La Gran Transformación basada en Tecnologías Verdes

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1 La Gran Transformación basada en Tecnologías Verdes
Rob Vos Naciones Unidas Buenos Aires 31 agosto 2011 La economia mundial enfrenta mucha incertidumbre. El riesgo de otra recesion en los paises avanzados es alto y esto pueda perjudicar al crecimiento en los paises en desarrollo, incluyendo a Argentina y America Latina. Para que no entremos de nuevo en recesion, con gente perdiendo sus trabajos y cayendo en condiciones de pobreza hay que contrarrestar los factores conduciendo a otro bajon economico. Pero podemos volver a lo mismo. Es posible seguir el rumbo de las decadas o, si quiere, los siglos pasados, que han dado una mejora sin precedente para el bienestar de la humanidad? La respuesta es un retundo NO! No es por que no hay que seguir caminos para combatir la pobreza y mejorar las condiciones de vida. Es por que hemos llegado a los limites ecologicos de la nuestra naturaleza, del sobrevivir en la tierra. Con este mensaje podemos decir que vivimos en el mejor y peor de los tiempos. A pesar de los senales de una nueva recesion iminente, el mundo no ha sido tan prospero como es ahora. Al mismo tiempo, hay mas inseguridad economica, mas divisiones sociales, y, sobre todo, la salud ecologica de la planeta nunca ha parecido tan fragil como ahora. El informe cuyos alcances quiero presentar ahora trata de buscar respuestas a como podemos garantizar un nivel de bienestar decente para una poblacion mundial creciente y revertir las presiones que ponen en peligro la sostenibilidad y estabilidad del medio ambiente. En particular el informe enfoque a las opciones de cambios tecnologicos para lograr estos dos objetivos a la vez.

2 Mensajes centrales El crecimiento de la población y el bienestar ha sido a costa de la degradación del medio ambiente El status quo no es una opción: es necesario encontrar una nueva ruta en el desarrollo para erradicar la pobreza y proteger el medio ambiente Un cambio tecnológico radical es necesario de manera urgente para el desarrollo sostenible: Cambio tecnológico drástico sobre todo en energía, agricultura y reducción de desastres y adaptación al cambio climático Hay muchas tecnologías disponibles; el reto es mejorarlas y adaptarlas El tiempo es muy corto: 30 a 40 años para la transformación tecnológica Los gobiernos tienen un papel central Acelerar el cambio con mayor cooperación internacional y financiamiento The key messages of the report are: Over the past two centuries, exponential population growth and enormous improvements in human welfare have come at the lasting cost of degradation of our natural environment. Continuation along previous trodden economic growth pathways will further exacerbate the pressures exerted on the world’s resources and natural environment, which would approach limits where livelihoods were no longer sustainable. Business as usual is thus not an option. This is why there is an urgent need to find new development pathways to end poverty and avert the catastrophic impacts of climate change and environmental degradation. A major technological overhaul as far-reaching as that of the first industrial revolution is the only way to promote economic progress that can lift millions out of poverty while ensuring environmental limits are not exceeded. The World Economic and Social Survey 2011 analyses the options and challenges associated with the shift to more efficient and renewable energy technologies, agricultural technologies that can guarantee sustainable food security, and technology required to adapt to climate change and reduce risks to human populations from natural hazards. Many of the technologies needed for a green economy are already available. The main challenge is how to further improve and adapt these technologies to local needs, so they can be diffused widely. In order to overcome poverty and avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change, this technological revolution will have to be completed in the next 30 to 40 years, compared to 70 years average required in past transformations. Because the old, dirty technologies are still cheaper in most instances than green technologies, Governments will have to play a leading role in making the transition. Innovation policies for sustainable development should be an integral part of national development strategies; the Survey calls for the greening of every country’s National Innovation System. Besides reshaping national development efforts, a sustained increase and reform in international cooperation and finance is needed. 2 2

3 El status quo no es opción
El crecimiento exponencial de la población, el ingreso, uso de energía, desperdicio y contaminantes (incluidos GEI) Ha causado degradación severa del medio ambiente Deforestación y perdida de biodiversidad Depredación y contaminación del agua Consumo de energía proveniente de fósiles que causan calentamiento global de la tierra El crecimiento económico actual no es sostenible bajo ningún escenario Incluso sin crecimiento, la degradación del medio ambiente continuaría Pero el crecimiento es necesario para reducir la pobreza de millones de personas Con la tecnología y métodos de producción actuales proveer un nivel de vida decente para todos no es sostenible Aumento en la demanda de comida y energía se tiene que satisfacer con tecnología sostenible Over the next three to four decades, a global technological overhaul is needed to protect the environment, promote growth and reduce poverty. Why? Since the first industrial revolution, growth of population, income, energy, waste and pollution (including greenhouse gas emissions) have increased exponentially, threatening to surpass Earth’s capacity limits (figures 1-4). About half of the earth’s forests are gone and biodiversity is lost. Groundwater resources are being depleted and contaminated. Fossil fuel burning has destabilized the climate by global warming. Continuation along past economic growth paths would exacerbate environmental pressures with catastrophic consequences. Thus, business as usual is not an option. Even without growth, environmental degradation would still continue because of existing production and consumption patterns. But we cannot stop the engines of growth, because much progress is still needed for people in developing countries to reach a decent living standard. There are 1.4 billion who still live in conditions of abject poverty. And, another two billion people will have been added to the world’s population by mid-century. To avert destitution, these populations will have to have access to modern energy and sufficient food, and be protected against natural hazards. About 40 per cent of humanity still rely on traditional biomass. About 1.4 billion people continue to live without access to electricity Pollution from inefficient stoves causes about 1.5 million premature deaths per year, more than from malaria, tuberculosis or HIV. Global food production will need to double by But agriculture and forestry contribute one-third of greenhouse gas emissions. Natural disasters has increased fivefold since the 1970s. Therefore, we cannot provide the poor access to modern living using today’s technologies and production methods. It will only increase environmental pressures, making livelihoods around the world unsustainable.

4 ‘‘Economía Ecológica’’ como nuevo paradigma?
Nuevo patrón de desarrollo es necesario para erradicar la pobreza con protección del medio ambiente Economía Ecológica (EE): Nuevo paradigma de desarrollo No hay definición única Crecimiento económico, progreso social y protección del medio ambiente Consistente con el concepto de ‘‘Desarrollo Sostenible’’ Los beneficios de invertir en EE son mayores que el costo de no hacerlo Mejoramiento tecnológico drástico es necesario sobre todo en: Generación y uso de energía Producción de alimentos Manejo de desastres naturales y adaptación al cambio climático This is why there is an urgent need for a technological and economic overhaul. New development pathways have to be found that will ensure environmental sustainability and reverse ecological destruction, while providing a decent livelihood for all of human kind, now and in the future. The “green economy” has been promoted as the key concept for a new development paradigm that can preserve the earth’s ecosystem along new economic growth pathways, while contributing to poverty reduction. There is no unique definition of the green economy, however, there is broad agreement on the basic idea underpinning it, namely, that enhancing economic growth, social progress and environmental stewardship can be complementary strategic objectives and that possible trade-offs among them can be overcome. In this sense, the ‘green economy’ concept is fully consistent with that of ‘sustainable development’, which perceives the economic, social and environmental dimensions as the three pillars of development. Further, the green economy concept is based on the conviction that the benefits of investing in environmental sustainability outweigh the cost of not doing so, as much as it outweighs the cost of having to protect ecosystems from the damages caused by a “non-green” (brown) economy. The transition to a green economy requires an overhaul of how we generate and use our energy, produce our food, and protect against disasters, in particular, because continuing to use existing technologies to provide welfare to an increasing world population is likely to make the Earth burst at its seams. This is a long introduction to the World Economic and Social Survey 2011 which we are launching today. The title of the report is “The Great Green Technological Transformation”. From what I just said, I hope it has become clear why we need a fundamental technological transformation. Let me now also indicate some directions how such a transformation could be achieved and whether that is feasible. 4 4

5 Una revolución tecnológica es necesaria…
Mucha de la tecnología necesaria para la economía ecológica ya esta disponible Reto principal: Mejorar tecnología Adaptarla a las necesidades locales Aumentar su uso para reducir costos Proveer incentivos y mecanismos para facilitar su difusión El tiempo es corto: 30 a 40 años para la transformación tecnológica Quiere o no quiere: los gobiernos tienen un papel central: Promoviendo R&D en la difusión de tecnología ecológica Financiamiento de largo plazo para infraestructura y producción How? Many of the technologies needed for a green economy are already available. A range of options are available for generating renewable energy (wind, solar power, biocombustibles, etc.), technologies for carbon capture and more efficient energy use, techniques to replace non-biodegradable resources, sustainable farming and forestry techniques. Existing technologies can also make coast lines and infrastructure less prone to natural disasters. The main challenges to jump-starting the shift to a green economy lie in how to further improve these techniques, adapt them to specific local and sectoral needs, scale up the applications so as to bring down significantly their costs, and provide incentives and mechanisms that will facilitate their diffusion and knowledge-sharing. Time will be a major constraint. We do not have much time to achieve this technological revolution given the threat of climate change and other ecological degradation. We probably only have three or four decades to make the transformation. This is very little time indeed: for instance, previous major energy transitions took no less than 70 to 100 years to achieve (figure 6). The Survey acknowledges that it will be difficult, but possible nonetheless. Because the old, ‘‘brown’’ technologies are still cheaper in most instances than green technologies, Governments will have to assume a leading role in making the transition. Governments will have to play a key role in promoting further research on and development of green technologies and their diffusion; as well as providing support and incentives for large-scale long-term financing for improving, adjusting and replacing much existing infrastructure and other invested capital. 5 5

6 Eficiencia en energía Tecnología tradicional ‘sucia’ genera el 90% de la energía y el 60% de las emisiones de CO2 Varios intentos para promover la generación de energía verde, pero insuficientes de-carbonizar el sistema de generación de energía hacia 2050 Papel activo de los gobiernos en la transformación hacia energía verde Promover un portafolio amplio de opciones de energía verde Políticas consistentes en las cadenas de producción y consumo Mejoramiento drástico en la eficiencia de las tecnologías aplicadas de uso de energía  implica cambio prioridades en políticas energéticas actuales Límites para acelerar la adopción de tecnología renovable Asegurar experimentación extensa y periodos de descubrimiento Necesitamos límites en el consumo de energía (de tal vez de 70 GJ por persona) A comprehensive global energy transition is urgently needed to avert a major planetary catastrophe. The scaling up of existing green technologies and creation of new technologies are needed to improve energy efficiency, require fewer resources and minimize pollution. At present, 90 per cent of energy is generated through brown technologies that use fossil fuels which are responsible for about 60 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions. Reducing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions will require drastic changes in consumption patterns, transportation systems, residential and building infrastructure, and water and sanitation systems. Many countries are already making efforts to foster a greener energy supply system, including by investing in energy innovation and through feed- in tariffs, other price measures, regulatory measures and efficiency standards. But this is far from sufficient. The pace of technological change is nowhere near that needed to reach the goal of full decarbonization of the global energy system by Existing efforts are not enough for a global solution. Governments will need to play an even more active and stimulating role to accelerate the green energy transformation. The Survey stresses that this can only be done if policies push for a broad portfolio of green energy solutions. Policies also must be consistent along the entire production and consumption chains and a much stronger push is needed to improve the energy efficiency of end-use technologies, such as those for automobiles, computers, heating, production equipment, and so on. This can take us a long way. The Survey warns however that with our current knowledge, there are limits to the degree to which renewable technologies can be scaled up. Therefore, there is need to ensure sufficient space for experimentation and discovery. In addition, it may be necessary to complement emission reduction targets with caps on primary energy consumption. It estimates that an energy consumption cap of 70 gigajoules per person per year would be consistent with emission reduction targets. It would mean the average European would need to cut energy consumption by half from present levels, while citizens from developing countries still have ample space to increase energy consumption. 6 6

7 Producción agrícola Agricultura y explotación de bosques contribuyen 30% a la emisión de GEI, asi como erosión de la tierra; agotamiento y contaminación de aguas; perdida de biodiversidad Cerca de mil millones de personas padecen desnutrición y la producción de alimentos tendrá que duplicarse en 2050 Agricultura deberá ser mas sostenible y productiva para lograr la seguridad alimentaria “Revolución Verde” de s aumentó la producción de alimentos, pero tuvo consecuencias negativas para el medio ambiente Se requiere una verdadera revolución verde en agricultura Existen tecnologías sostenibles, pero necesitan mejorar, adaptarse, acelerar su adopción, servicios de apoyo e I&D Modern agriculture, which underpins global food security, currently contributes about 14 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, and the land-use and water management related thereto are not sustainable in many parts of the world. Deforestation is contributing an estimated 17 per cent of global emissions, while causing the loss of habitat, species and biodiversity in general. However, inasmuch as nearly 1 billion people are undernourished, and global food production would need to double by mid-century to feed a forecasted future population of 9 billion. Thus, agricultural production must become environmentally sustainable yet substantially more productive, which will only be possible through an overhaul of existing production systems, technologies and infrastructure. Agriculture already went through a “green” technological revolution in the 1960s and 1970s. It gave an enormous push to growth of food production (figure 6). But it was far from “green”. It introduced production methods that have led to accelerated land degradation, water pollution, deforestation and increased greenhouse gas emissions. Now a truly green revolution in agriculture is needed. Large shifts in agricultural technologies are required, using farming techniques that require less water wastage and chemicals and pesticides that cause land degradation. Those farm technologies exist, but they must be improved and adapted to a wide variety of local conditions. Their deployment needs to be scaled up and made affordable to farmers worldwide, but especially to smallholders in developing countries to increase productivity and reduce poverty. Economies of scale in sustainable food production will have to be promoted through adequate support services, not only in the form of access to sustainable farming techniques, but also through adequate distribution networks and transportation, sustainable irrigation and water management systems, education and extension services, and access to credits and land. These policies must be bolstered by continued research and international support. This will have vast implications for land use and agriculture. 7 7

8 Producción agrícola en Argentina
Los temas centrales en Argentina son la contaminación y pérdida de tierra agrícola por erosión, salinización y deforestación Que se ha hecho para contrarestar? Cambio tecnológico hacia cultivos GM (17 mln de hectáreas) Aumentan tolerancia a herbicidas y resistencia a insectos Resultados: Beneficios económicos: mayor rentabilidad para productores (incluyendo pequeños propietarios), generación directa e indirecta de empleo y aumento de las exportaciones. Medio ambiente: reducción uso de herbicidas tóxicos (soja) pero… aumento monocultivo con pérdida de biodiversidad y mayor riesgo de extensión a ecosistemas frágiles Los temas centrales en Argentina son la contaminación y pérdida de tierra agrícola por erosión, salinización y deforestación Que se ha hecho para contrarrestar? Cambio tecnologico: De 1996 a la fecha Argentina se convirtió en el segundo productor de cultivos genéticamente modificados (GM) con 17 millones de has. solo detrás de Estados Unidos GM para aumentar tolerancia a herbicidas y resistencia a insectos Para 2005 los GM ya representaban el 90% del área cultivada de soja, 70% de maíz y 60% de algodón, incluidos pequeños propietarios (ver NOTA) Beneficios económicos: aumentó la rentabilidad de los productores, generación directa e indirecta de empleo y aumento de las exportaciones. Medio ambiente: redujo el uso de herbicidas tóxicos (soja) pero… alimenta el monocultivo (pérdida de biodiversidad), riesgo de extensión a ecosistemas frágiles, pérdida de nutrientes… NOTA: Pequeños productores o agricultura familiar: trabajan directamente en la explotación y no emplea trabajadores asalariados permanentes PP son dos tercios del total de explotaciones agrícolas (218,868); 13.5% del área cultivada total y 19.2% del valor de la producción (censo 2002). El valor de la producción por ha es mayor entre los PP que en cualquier otra explotación Tipo 1 – mas capitalizado (21%). Tipo 2 – viven de la explotación pero no avanzan (27%). Tipo 3 – tienen que complementar sus ingresos con otras actividades (52%). Alrededor del 40% de la PP son pobres 53% del empleo agropecuario se origina en los PP: 53% en el Tipo 3; 26% en el Tipo 2; 22% en el Tipo 1. Plan Nacional de Seguridad Alimentaria reconoce la agricultura familiar (o PP) como eje de la seguridad alimentaria en Argentina 8 8

9 Implicaciones para políticas
Política de precios: Internalización el costo de recuperar los nutrientes de la tierra por la extensión de monocultivos (soja) con fertilizantes que compensen la pérdida Política tecnológica: Promover la rotación de cultivos (soja y maíz) Mayor investigación y desarrollo con recursos públicos en GM de segunda generación y tecnología sostenible Política de precios: Internalización el costo de recuperar los nutrientes de la tierra por la extensión de monocultivos (soja) con fertilizantes que compensen la pérdida Política tecnológica: Promover la rotación de cultivos (soja y maíz) Mayor investigación y desarrollo con recursos públicos en GM de segunda generación y tecnología sostenible Políticas agraria y macro: Diversificación de cultivos y aumento en el valor agregado para reducir dependencia y vulnerabilidad macro 9 9

10 Implicaciones para políticas (cont.)
Políticas agraria y macro: Diversificación de cultivos y aumento en el valor agregado para reducir dependencia y vulnerabilidad macro Mayor apoyo para pequeños propietarios: tienen la ventaja de utilizar mejor adaptación de tecnologías sostenibles y preservar la biodiversidad Mejorar la capacidad productiva de los PP requiere difusión de tecnología sostenible Mejorar acceso a servicios complementarios (crédito, seguros, insumos, infraestructura, etc.) Políticas agraria y macro: Diversificación de cultivos y aumento en el valor agregado para reducir dependencia y vulnerabilidad macro Mayor apoyo para pequeños propietarios: tienen la ventaja de utilizar mejor adaptación de tecnologías sostenibles y preservar la biodiversidad Mejorar la capacidad productiva de los PP requiere difusión de tecnología sostenible Mejorar acceso a servicios complementarios (crédito, seguros, insumos, infraestructura, etc.) 10 10

11 Reducción de desastres naturales y adaptación al cambio climático
Incidencia de desastres naturales ha aumentado 5-veces desde 1970s, en parte atribuido al cambio climático Aumenta la probabilidad de que eventos climáticos extremos se conviertan en desastres humanos, especialmente en países en desarrollo Reducir el riesgo de desastres naturales y la adaptación al cambio climático requiere cambio tecnológico y social Mayor inversión en tecnología tiene que ser parte de las estrategias nacionales de desarrollo Cambio de diseño y en algunos casos reconstrucción de asentamientos humanos e infraestructura Mejor uso de la tierra y manejo del agua Importancia del conocimiento local y la participación Esfuerzos apoyados por cooperación regional y global The incidence of natural disasters has increased fivefold since the 1970s. This increase can, with a fair degree of certainty, be attributed in part to climate change induced by human activity. Deforestation, degradation of natural coastal protection and poor infrastructure have increased the likelihood that weather shocks will turn into human disasters, especially in the least developed countries (figure 7). Reducing disaster risk and adapting to climate change will require significant technological and social change. While disaster responses are typically event driven, investment and technology decisions related to disaster reduction and adaptation to climate change should become part of national development strategies. Reducing disaster risk will involve changes in the design of settlements and infrastructure, as well as better land-use and water management in vulnerable areas. Affordable technological innovation, drawing on local knowledge, is needed to adapt disaster-resilient infrastructure, housing and natural coastal protection to ground conditions, with vulnerable social groups fully taking part in decision-making processes. Because natural events do not respect political boundaries, national efforts must be supported by regional and global cooperation. 11 11

12 Sistemas Nacionales de Innovación para el Desarrollo Sostenible
Fortalecer las capacidades nacionales para elegir, absorber y promover tecnologías para el desarrollo sostenible Políticas de educación para hacer conciencia, proveer capacitación y desarrollo de nuevas tecnologías Coordinar la re-orientación de sectores específicos en los sistemas de innovación hacia el uso de tecnologías sostenibles Asegurar consistencia entre la tecnología sostenible y las políticas industriales Strong technology policies for sustainable development need to go hand in hand with active industrial and educational policies, and form an integral part of national development strategies. The Survey calls for the greening of every country’s National Innovation System, as a framework for accelerating the green technological transformation. A key responsibility of an effective G-NIS is building domestic capacity to choose, absorb and promote the technologies that are most conducive to enhancing dynamic sustainable development. The greening of national innovation systems not only requires strong technology policies but also strong education policies to provide greater awareness for sustainable development, to train farmers, engineers and other technicians to handle green technologies and to support scientists develop and improve new technologies. It means educational priorities will have to stretch beyond primary education, with a particular emphasis on vocational training and scientific research. The G-NIS would also serve both to coordinate the reorientation of sector-specific innovation systems for agriculture, energy, construction, manufacturing and transport, among other sectors, towards a focus on green technologies and to ensure consistency among green technology, industrial and demand-side policies. 12 12

13 Transferencia de tecnología y cooperación internacional
Profundizar y reformar la cooperación internacional y la ayuda financiera para hacer efectiva la transformación tecnológica verde Río 1992 y Río+20: investir en tecnología verde puede estimular el crecimiento económico Crear un régimen publico global para la difusión de tecnologías verdes El régimen multilateral de derechos de propiedad intelectual tiene que modificarse para fortalecer la difusión y adaptación de tecnología verde El régimen multilateral de comercio tiene que otorgar mayor espacio a las políticas industriales y de desarrollo de los países en desarrollo Strengthened international cooperation and significant adjustments in multilateral trade and financing mechanisms will be needed, if developing countries are to effect the necessary technological transformation without compromising their aspirations regarding growth and poverty reduction. In Rio in 1992, the international community came to an agreement that humankind does not have to trade off the goal of protecting the natural environment against that of overcoming poverty. There is no need to compromise on this agreement today. Investing in green technologies can stimulate growth and development. The more widespread the use of new, green technologies, the more cost reduction can be achieved in their usage. The Survey proposes to build a global public technology sharing regime and networks of international technology research and application centres. Because it is important to rapidly spread green technology globally, a greater variety of multilateral intellectual property right modalities will have to be used than presently arranged for under WTO, to harness the explosion of patenting of green technologies toward faster and broader diffusion (figure 8). Multilateral trading rules should also grant greater flexibility to developing countries in their conduct of industrial policies. The proposed reshaping of national development efforts and strengthened international commitment in the areas of technological development and cooperation, external assistance, investment finance and trade rules will require stronger mechanisms of global governance and coordination. 13 13

14 Financiamiento de la transición tecnológica verde
El financiamiento sigue siendo una limitante central En los próximos 40 años: Se necesitan $1.9 billones al año de inversión en tecnologías verdes De los cuales: aprox. $1 billón en los países en desarrollo La transferencia de recursos para la tecnología verde va a requerir reformas nacionales e internacionales movilización de recursos nacionales va a ser clave pero, complementar con sustanciales transferencias financieras internacionales  Con implicaciones para reforma del sistema global de reservas Financing remains a key constraint to all of this. Inadequate financing is consistently mentioned by businesses and governments as the greatest obstacle to their rapid adaptation of clean technologies (figure 9). Over the next 40 years, an additional $1.9 trillion per year is estimated to be needed for incremental investments in green technologies. One half ($1 trillion) of the required investments would need to take place in developing countries. This will have major implications for the rebalancing of the global economy. Enhanced domestic resource mobilization should be key to financing the additional investment effort. But given domestic resources in developing countries, an important share of the additional investments will have to be financed by international resource transfers. This would imply reversing current trends where developing countries make significant net financial resource transfers to developed countries. Reforms of the international payments and reserve system that would stem global market volatility and reduce the need for reserve accumulation by developing countries could liberate substantial resources for financing in green investments. External financing currently available for green technology investments in developing countries is far from sufficient to meet the challenge. The Global Environment Facility and climate change trust funds disbursed no more than $20 billion per year in the last two years. Pledges in the Copenhagen Accord of $100 billion per year by 2020 in transfers to developing countries are a step in the right direction, but are still insufficient and have yet to be realized (figure 10). 14 14

15 http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/index.html/ Nuevo: Sigue y discute:
@UNDevelopPolicy Development Policy and Analysis Division of UN- DESA All of these issues will also be central for the Rio+20 Conference next year. The World Economic and Social Survey suggests a number of possible solutions of how to achieve the “great green technological transformation”. We must consider these seriously, if we are serious about achieving sustainable development and averting catastrophic damage to the Earth’s natural environment. There is little time left, so we must come together and agree to joint action at Rio+20.

16 Crecimiento exponencial de la población
mundial, Figure 1 Growth of the world population, per capita income, energy and resource use, waste and the production of pollutants (including greenhouse gas emissions) have all increased exponentially since the first industrial revolution. A depiction of these increases assumes the shape of a hockey stick (figures 1-4). The related increase in the level of human activity is threatening to surpass the limits of the Earth’s capacity as a source and sink. Back

17 Crecimiento del ingreso per capita
mundial, Figure 2 Back

18 Aumento en el consumo de energía desde la
primera revolución industrial , Figure 3 Back

19 Aumento exponencial en la emisión de gases
de efecto invernadero, Figure 4 Back

20 Todos escenarios apuntan a aumento temperatura mundial con entre 2 y 5 oC: mayor que el limite aceptable Figure 4 Back

21 Dos transiciones de gran escala en el sistema global de energía, 1850-2008
Figure 5 While climate change scenarios indicate that the transition would need to be achieved within the next four decades, history and present developments suggest that this would be virtually impossible: Previous major energy transitions took from 70 to 100 years (figure 5). Since 1975, energy systems have stabilized around the use of fossil fuels with no visible shift in the direction of a new transition towards renewable and cleaner primary energy sources, despite national and international efforts to accelerate technological change in energy generation in response to the oil crises of the 1970s and increasing concerns about global warming. Far more drastic improvements in energy efficiency and an accelerated shift to sustainable energy will thus be required if catastrophic damage through climate change is to be averted. Back

22 Crecimiento divergente en la productividad de
cereales por región, Figure 6 In large parts of the world, food systems were shaped to a considerable extent by the so-called green revolution of the 1960s and 1970s, which pushed agricultural yields as much through intensive use of irrigation water and environmentally harmful chemical fertilizers and pesticides, as the introduction of new seed varieties (figure 6). Back

23 Número de personas afectadas por
desastres, por país, Figure 7 Developing regions bear the brunt of the adverse impacts of natural hazards. Multiple vulnerabilities associated with lower levels of development and inadequate resources hinder poor countries from building up more rapidly resilient infrastructure and knowledge capacities for disaster risk reduction. The human cost measured in terms of both the loss of human lives and the number of persons affected by disasters is significantly higher in developing countries. The average number of persons killed per 100,000 inhabitants is five times higher in developing than in developed regions, while the number of people adversely affected (injured, homeless) is twenty times higher than in developed regions, albeit with regional differences. The number of affected people is highest in developing Asia, although large parts of Africa and Latin America also show high degrees of impact (figure 7). Back

24 Aumento en las tecnologías de mitigación
al cambio climático, Figure 8 Patenting is very aggressive in various areas of green technology. There has been a rapid increase in international patenting activity specifically in climate change mitigation technologies, compared with other technologies (figure 9). The intense interest in green technologies and the growing competition among major economies (which include some developing countries such as India and China) suggests that it would be foolhardy to presume that the relatively benign impact of the TRIPS on countries with strong industrial policies would be benign in the case of green technology. Back

25 Barreras económicas y de mercado para la transferencia de tecnología
Figure 9 To facilitate the introduction of the new green technologies, investment rates in developing countries will have to be stepped up considerably. Inadequate financing has been consistently identified by developing countries as the greatest obstacle to their rapid adoption of clean technologies (as reported in technology needs assessments – see figure 10). Back