Cuba y el Clima del Futuro

Presentación del tema: "Cuba y el Clima del Futuro"— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 Cuba y el Clima del Futuro

2 ¿Cuál es el problema? Existen nuevas y fuertes evidencias de que la mayor parte del calentamiento observado en los últimos 50 años es atribuible a las actividades humanas

3 ¿Cuál es el problema? Las actividades humanas han incrementado las concentraciones de los Gases de Efecto Invernadero en la Atmósfera. Como resultado, el Efecto Invernadero natural se intensifica, alterando el balance radiativo del Planeta. Por todo esto, el CLIMA VA A CAMBIAR.

4 CAMBIO DE TEMPERATURA °C
REPERCUSIONES Incremento de la Temperatura del Aire (1.5 y 6.0 °C) CAMBIO DE TEMPERATURA °C Año

5 Incremento del nivel del mar (cm)
REPERCUSIONES Incremento del Nivel del Mar ( cm) Incremento del nivel del mar (cm) Año

6 REPERCUSIONES Cambios espaciales y temporales en los patrones de precipitación. Mayor intensidad y frecuencia de algunos eventos climáticos extremos

7 ¿Qué hacer frente al cambio climático?
MITIGACION: Se relaciona con el origen del Problema. Reducir las emisiones y las concentraciones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero ADAPTACION: Reducir los impactos adversos y sacar provecho de los impactos positivos. Se asume que aunque haya MITIGACION, los impactos son inevitables.

8 El Concepto de Adaptación
Ajuste de los sistemas naturales y humanos a un ambiente cambiado o nuevo. La Adaptación al Cambio Climático se refiere al ajuste de los sistemas en respuesta a los estímulos climáticos actuales o esperados. Este ajuste intenta reducir los daños y sacar provecho de los beneficios.

9 El Concepto de Adaptación
Se pueden distinguir varios tipos de adaptación: Anticipada o reactiva Pública o individual Autónoma o planificada

10 Los países pobres son los más vulnerables ¿Por qué?
Menos tecnología Menor capacidad financiera Menor capacidad institucional Menos conocimientos y educación La adaptación requiere también de Voluntad Política

11 Impactos potenciales del Cambio Climático en Cuba
Resultados de las investigaciones y evaluaciones en varios sectores económicos y sociales Recursos Hídricos Agricultura Asentamientos humanos Salud Humana

12 FORZAMIENTO RADIATIVO temp, lluvia, nivel del mar.
El clima futuro en Cuba EMISIONES Crecimiento poblacional, modelos económicos modelos de ciclo de vida y de química atmosférica Propiedades de gases modelos climáticos Modelos de impactos CONCENTRACIONES CO2, metano, etc. Retroalimentaciones FORZAMIENTO RADIATIVO Retroalimentaciones CAMBIO CLIMATICO temp, lluvia, nivel del mar. The prediction of climate change is complicated by the fact that, once climate change starts, there will be consequences (feedbacks) in the climate system which can act to either enhance or reduce the warming. For example, as the atmosphere warms it will be able to “hold” more water vapour. Water vapour itself is a very powerful greenhouse gas, so this will act as a positive feedback and enhance the warming. Similarly, when sea ice begins to melt, some of the solar radiation which would otherwise be reflected from the sea ice is absorbed by the ocean, and heats it further; another positive feedback. On the other hand when carbon dioxide concentrations increase in the atmosphere then it acts to speed up the growth of plants and trees (the fertilisation effect) which in turn absorb more of the carbon dioxide; this acts as a negative feedback. There are many of these feedbacks, both positive and negative, many of which we do not fully understand. This lack of understanding is the main cause of the uncertainty in climate predictions; this applies in particular to changes in clouds which we will return to later. IMPACTOS

13 El clima futuro en Cuba ESCENARIOS DE CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
Representación consistente del clima futuro, obtenida utilizando principios y métodos científicos, que es utilizada para obtener las respuestas de los sistemas medio ambientales y sociales ante el cambio climático. NO SON PRONÓSTICOS The prediction of climate change is complicated by the fact that, once climate change starts, there will be consequences (feedbacks) in the climate system which can act to either enhance or reduce the warming. For example, as the atmosphere warms it will be able to “hold” more water vapour. Water vapour itself is a very powerful greenhouse gas, so this will act as a positive feedback and enhance the warming. Similarly, when sea ice begins to melt, some of the solar radiation which would otherwise be reflected from the sea ice is absorbed by the ocean, and heats it further; another positive feedback. On the other hand when carbon dioxide concentrations increase in the atmosphere then it acts to speed up the growth of plants and trees (the fertilisation effect) which in turn absorb more of the carbon dioxide; this acts as a negative feedback. There are many of these feedbacks, both positive and negative, many of which we do not fully understand. This lack of understanding is the main cause of the uncertainty in climate predictions; this applies in particular to changes in clouds which we will return to later.

14 El clima futuro en Cuba ESCENARIOS DE CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
Deben reflejar las incertidumbres Diferentes perfiles de emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero Diferentes resultados de los modelos climáticos Diferentes respuestas del sistema climático The prediction of climate change is complicated by the fact that, once climate change starts, there will be consequences (feedbacks) in the climate system which can act to either enhance or reduce the warming. For example, as the atmosphere warms it will be able to “hold” more water vapour. Water vapour itself is a very powerful greenhouse gas, so this will act as a positive feedback and enhance the warming. Similarly, when sea ice begins to melt, some of the solar radiation which would otherwise be reflected from the sea ice is absorbed by the ocean, and heats it further; another positive feedback. On the other hand when carbon dioxide concentrations increase in the atmosphere then it acts to speed up the growth of plants and trees (the fertilisation effect) which in turn absorb more of the carbon dioxide; this acts as a negative feedback. There are many of these feedbacks, both positive and negative, many of which we do not fully understand. This lack of understanding is the main cause of the uncertainty in climate predictions; this applies in particular to changes in clouds which we will return to later.

15 concentración CO2 (ppm)
DIFERENTES EMISIONES Concentraciones de CO2 para tres escenarios de emisiones 750 Tendencia actual 650 Emisiones constantes a nivel de 1990 550 concentración CO2 (ppm) 450 50% de las emisiones de 1990 350 The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion. Pre-industrial 250 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Años

16 DIFERENTES RESULTADOS DE LOS MODELOS CLIMÁTICOS
The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

17 INCERTIDUMBRE TOTAL The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

18 CLIMA FUTURO DE CUBA Temperatura
The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

19 CLIMA FUTURO DE CUBA Precipitación
The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

20 CLIMA FUTURO DE CUBA Nivel del Mar
The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

21 CLIMA FUTURO DE CUBA Incremento de la temperatura (entre 1.6 y 2.5 °C para el 2100) Mayor incremento de la temperatura en el verano mayor que en el invierno. Comportamiento incierto de las precipitaciones Aumento de la evaporación debido a aumento de temperatura favorecerá la aridez Aumento del nivel del mar The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

22 IMPACTOS EN LOS RECURSOS HÍDRICOS
Reducción importante del potencial hídrico del País (superficial y subterráneo) Mayor reducción de los recursos hídricos en verano (período más lluvioso) Mayor intrusión marina en las aguas subterráneas Reducción de la calidad del recurso The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

23 IMPACTOS EN LA AGRICULTURA
Los impactos dependen de la ocurrencia o no del Efecto de Fertilización por CO2 Si no se produce el efecto de fertilización los rendimientos agrícolas potenciales disminuirían Si se produce el efecto de fertilización, los rendimientos aumentarían, pero en algunos cultivos las reducciones se mantendrían. Reducción de la biomasa producida por los pastizales, aun con el efecto de fertilización. The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

24 IMPACTOS EN LA AGRICULTURA
Se evaluaron: Rendimientos agrícolas de varios cultivos (frijol común, arroz, papa, caña de azúcar y otros) Bosques y plantaciones forestales Plagas y enfermedades de los cultivos The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

25 IMPACTOS EN LA AGRICULTURA
Los bosques cubanos estarían sometidos a condiciones de aridez, las cuales afectarían su desarrollo futuro. El incremento del nivel del mar impactaría negativamente a los manglares y otras formaciones boscosas. Modificación en el comportamiento de algunas plagas y enfermedades de los cultivos. The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

26 IMPACTOS EN LA AGRICULTURA
Los bosques cubanos estarían sometidos a condiciones de aridez, las cuales afectarían su desarrollo futuro. El incremento del nivel del mar impactaría negativamente a los manglares y otras formaciones boscosas. Modificación en el comportamiento de algunas plagas y enfermedades de los cultivos. The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

27 IMPACTOS EN LA SALUD HUMANA
Enfermedades consideradas: Infecciones respiratorias agudas Asma Bronquial Hepatitis Viral Enfermedad Meningocócica Varicela Enfermedades Diarreicas Agudas The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

28 IMPACTOS EN LA SALUD HUMANA
Se producirá un incremento en la afectación de todas las enfermedades excepto el Asma Bronquial. La evaluación del impacto económico de tal incremento indica una posible duplicación de los costos relacionados con la atención médica The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

29 OPCIONES DE ADAPTACIÓN
RECURSOS HÍDRICOS Modificaciones en el diseño y forma de explotación de los pozos Establecimiento de medidas reguladoras para garantizar el ahorro y uso eficiente del agua. Introducción de tecnologías orientadas al uso eficiente del agua Cambio de los patrones de consumo del recurso hídrico Construcción de obras hidráulicas The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

30 OPCIONES DE ADAPTACIÓN
AGRICULTURA Regionalización de los cultivos Selección e introducción de variedades agrícolas (biotecnología) Perfeccionar la disciplina tecnológica Perfeccionamiento del Sistema de Vigilancia de la Sanidad Vegetal Reforzamiento del programa de reforestación Aprovechamiento de los recursos forestales en peligro The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

31 OPCIONES DE ADAPTACIÓN
SALUD HUMANA Continuar fortaleciendo el sistema de atención primaria Continuar perfeccionando el sistema de vigilancia epidemiológica Continuar fortaleciendo y desarrollando los programas de vacunación, principalmente a los grupos de alto riesgo Continuar mejorando las condiciones higiénico sanitarias en los asentamientos humanos The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

32 OPCIONES DE ADAPTACIÓN
ESTRATEGIA DE ADAPTACIÓN Uso racional y protección de los recursos hídricos Perfeccionamiento de la agricultura y conservación de los recursos forestales Perfeccionamiento del sistema de salud pública The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.

33 OPCIONES DE ADAPTACIÓN
ESTRATEGIA DE ADAPTACIÓN Incrementar la capacitación de la población en temas relacionados al clima y la variabilidad climática Potenciar el desarrollo del sistema de vigilancia y predicción del tiempo y el clima Perfeccionar los planes actuales de preparación y respuesta a los impactos adversos del tiempo y el clima. The long effective life time of carbon dioxide means that its concentration in the atmosphere is very slow to respond to an reduction in emissions. This figure shows the concentration of carbon dioxide in parts per million from 1990 to the end of the next century. The red line shows the best prediction of carbon dioxide concentrations due to a 'business as usual' scenario of emissions (IPCC IS95a). Concentration roughly doubles over the next 100 years. If we were able to limit global emissions at constant 1990 levels (blue line) carbon dioxide would still go on rising substantially. And even if emissions were cut in half overnight, and continued at that level for 100 years, then carbon dioxide concentrations would still actually creep up. Only by a reduction of something like 60-70% in carbon dioxide emissions would we be able to guarantee no further increase in the concentrations in the atmosphere. That is not the same thing as calling for a cut of 60-70%; it is simply pointing out that the physics of the carbon cycle leads to that conclusion.