Colombia en una encrucijada LATAM Energy Convention 2015 Campetrol 27 Mayo 2015 Trusted commercial intelligence Ana-Maria Lafuente

Trusted commercial intelligence 2 Agenda 1. Pronostico de reservas y producción 2. Perfil corporativo 3. Comparaciones fiscales 4. Riesgo por país

Trusted commercial intelligence 3 Sin nuevos descubrimientos, producción de líquidos declina Producción de líquidos de activos actualmente comerciales Source: Wood Mackenzie

Trusted commercial intelligence 4 Éxito en exploración es imperativo para remplazar reservas Volúmenes anuales descubiertos vs. producción cumulativa anual Source: Wood Mackenzie

Trusted commercial intelligence 5 Panorama corporativo es fragmentado, dominado por dos compañías clave Reservas comerciales remanentes por compañía Source: Wood Mackenzie

Trusted commercial intelligence 6 Reducciones de capex por compañías en Colombia mas que el promedio global 2015 vs 2014 cambios globalmente en capex (%) E&D upstream Source: Wood Mackenzie

Trusted commercial intelligence 7 Términos fiscales onshore Colombia comparados a sus pares Medidas financieras ilustrativas de un campo estándar en tierra de 20 mmbbl Source: Wood Mackenzie

Trusted commercial intelligence 8 Comparación de términos fiscales con posibilidades de México Medidas financieras ilustrativas de un campo estándar en tierra de 5 mmbbl

Trusted commercial intelligence 9 Actores grandes en Colombia tienen recursos sin comercializar Compañías con mayores áreas en Colombia (por interés) Source: Wood Mackenzie

Trusted commercial intelligence 10 Alto interés, altas expectativas offshore

Trusted commercial intelligence 11 Terminos fiscals deepwater Colombia deepwater son competitivos con sus pares Medidas financieras ilustrativas de un campo estándar deepwater de 200 mmbbl Source: Wood Mackenzie

Trusted commercial intelligence 12 Asset Risk Index (ARI) – Colombia adelante de todos Source: Wood Mackenzie Esperamos mejoramiento en toda la región a través del periodo evaluado

Trusted commercial intelligence 13 Contacts Ana-Maria Lafuente (Houston) T E Wood Mackenzie Analyst – Latin America E Americas Asia Pacific Europe Wood Mackenzie Client Helpdesk

Trusted commercial intelligence 14 Disclaimer  This report has been prepared for Campetrol by Wood Mackenzie Limited. The report is intended solely for the benefit of Campetrol and its contents and conclusions are confidential and may not be disclosed to any other persons or companies without Wood Mackenzie’s prior written permission.  The information upon which this report is based comes from our own experience, knowledge and databases. The opinions expressed in this report are those of Wood Mackenzie. They have been arrived at following careful consideration and enquiry but we do not guarantee their fairness, completeness or accuracy. The opinions, as of this date, are subject to change. We do not accept any liability for your reliance upon them. Strictly Private & Confidential

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