Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Parte del Global Business Outlook Un esfuerzo conjunto entre Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas y CFO magazine.

Presentación del tema: "Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Parte del Global Business Outlook Un esfuerzo conjunto entre Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas y CFO magazine."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Parte del Global Business Outlook Un esfuerzo conjunto entre Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas y CFO magazine Perspectivas de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 1

2 Mayores preocupaciones para CFO’s en Latinoamérica Perspectivas de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 2 1.Inestabilidad económica 2.Política gubernamental 3.Riesgo de divisas 4.Inflación 5.Productividad laboral 6.Baja demanda de productos/servicios 7.Legislación en Impuestos Corporativos 8.Acceso a capital 9.Requisitos de regulaciones 10.Costo de capital

3 Perspectivas de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Índice de Optimismo en Negocios Perspectiva Global PaÍs/Región Respuestas de Marzo 2015 3 Notas: Información presentada refleja la media de un país o región en una escala de 0-100 Índice de Optimismo de País Índice de Optimismo de sus Compañías Sus compañías El optimismo de CFO’s con respecto a sus países permanece bajo, sin embargo el optimismo de sus compañías es alto.

4 Expectativa de Incremento de Precios en Productos Nota: Información presentada refleja la media de un país o región Perspectivas de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 4 Precio de Productos Las expectativas inflacionarias de Latinoamérica son las segundas más altas a nivel global, solo detrás de África. Expectativa en Latinomérica, sin cambio  CFO’s en Latinoamérica anticipan un crecimiento de precios por productos y servicios de 2.4% en los próximos 12 meses.  CFOs en Europa, Asia, y EEUU esperan bajos niveles de inflación o deflación. Expectativa de inflación es más alta en Brasil  De los países participantes, Brasil muestra la expectativa más alta en inflación.  En Chile, los precios incrementarán muy poco. Perspectiva GlobalPerspectiva de Marzo 2015

5 Expectativa de Crecimiento en Ventas Ventas Nota: Información presentada refleja la media de un país o región Perspectivas de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 5 CFO’s en Latinoamérica creen que los niveles de ventas incrementarán 5%, un nivel similar al del resto del mundo. Ventas al alza en Latinoamérica  El crecimiento en ventas en Latinoamérica estaba estimado en un 9% durante el trimestre pasado.  Crecimiento en ventas será menor que en Africa, pero superior a otras regiones. Compañías Chilenas anticipan mayor crecimiento  Entre los países participantes, el crecimiento en Chile es el mayor seguido de Perú y Ecuador. Perspectiva GlobalPerspectiva de Marzo 2015

6 Inversión de Capital Perspectivas de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 6 Expectativa de Crecimiento en Inversión de Capital Nota: Información presentada refleja la media de un país o región La inversión de capital en Lationamérica tiene una expectativa de crecimiento del 1.6% en los próximos 12 meses. Planes de Inversión de capital permanecen en niveles bajos.  La inversion de capital en Latinoamérica se proyectá en un 2%, debajo de la misma en otras regiones. Niveles de Inversión varían en Latinoamérica  Altos niveles en Chile, serán contrarestados con bajas en inversion en Brasil y Perú.  Europa y Asia tienen los niveles más altos de inversión global. Perspectiva GlobalPerspectiva de Marzo 2015

7 Perspectivas de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 7 Expectativa de Cambios en Utilidades Nota: Información presentada refleja la media del valor públido de una compañía en un país o región Utilidades Las expectativas de crecimiento en utilidades en Latinoamérica cambiaron drásticamente con respecto al trimestre pasado. Crecimiento en utilidades cayó al 3.1% este trimestre.  En Latinoamérica esto representa una baja de aproximademente 8% con respecto al trimestre anterior.  El crecimiento en utilidades bajará en Europa, mientras que permanecerá igual en EEUU y Asia. Menor crecimiento en utilidades en países participantes de Latinoamérica  Chile y Perú anticipan crecimiento.  En Brasil la expectativa es negativa. Perspectiva GlobalPerspectiva de Marzo 2015

8 # Empleados tiempo completo Perspectivas de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 8 Incremento moderado de Trabajadores a Tiempo Completo Notas: Información presentada refleja la media de un país o región #FT=Número de empleados tiempo completo CFO’s en Latinoamérica no anticipan incrementos de la fuerza laboral local. Crecimiento de empleo moderado en Latinoamérica  A pesar de que en Latinoamérica no hay planes de expander la fuerza laboral, la situación es peor en Europa.  África anticipa un alto crecimiento laboral. Tasa de empleo a la baja en Latinoamérica  Brasil, Perú y Chile esperan reducciones en el ámbito laboral.  Empleo crecerá marginalmente en México. Perspectiva GlobalPerspectiva de Marzo 2015

9 Tendencias Globales Salarios y Beneficios Perspectivas Marzo 2015 Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 9 Expectativas en Ingresos Salariales Nota: La información presentada refleja los promedios de regiones o países Se proyecta un incremento del 6.5% para salarios y beneficios en Latinoamérica, un incremento ligeramente menor al de África. Acelerado crecimiento salarial en economías emergentes  Latinoamérica, Asia, y África anticipan que los salarios incrementaran mas de 5%, una cifra superior a la de expectativa de inflación durante el mismo periodo en dichas regiones  En EEUU y Europa se anticipa que salarios incrementarán 3% Ingresos salariales incrementarán sustancialmente en Brasil  En línea con las expectativas inflacionarias del mercado, las compañías en Brasil prevén incrementos salariales del 7.6% durante 2015  En Perú, Chile y México la expectativa es de incrementos salariales

10 Fusiones y Adquisiciones Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 10 Las perspectivas de Fusiones y Adquisiciones en Latinoamérica están alineadas con el resto de las regiones. Aproximadamente un 13% de los CFOs esperan realizar una adquisición durante el próximo año. Globalmente, mas de un 25% de las compañías esperan adquirir activos de otras firmas.  La actividad en Fusiones y Adquisiciones es comparativamente menor en Latinoamérica, con tan solo cerca del 10% de las firmas esperando realizar una adquisición. La actividad de Fusiones y Adquisiciones será mayor en Europa y Asia.  Las firmas Europeas demuestran mayor interés en realizar adquisiciones a nivel internacional. Entre las firmas Latinoamericanas encuestadas, los CFOs en Perú son quienes demuestran mayor interés en realizar adquisiciones a nivel internacional.

11 ¿Dónde ocurrirán las adquisiciones transfronterizas? Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 11 Las adquisisciones internacionales desde Latinoamérica se enfocarán principalmente en compañías con operaciones en América del Norte y en menor medida en compañías operando dentro de la región o en Europa. Las adquisiciones Latinoamericanas serán mayoritariamente en América del Norte y dentro de la región, desestimando Asia:  Los CFOs Latinoamericanos expresan poco interés en adquirir firmas Asiáticas, focalizandose en la región  Firmas Estadounidenses y Canadienses representan la región con mayor interés en adquirir firmas Latinoamericanas  La mayoría de las regiones concentran sus adquisiciones internacionales en firmas dentro de su propio continente

12 Composición de la Junta Directiva alrededor del mundo 12 ¿Cuál es la composición objetivo (actual) de hombres, mujeres y minorías en su junta directiva? Estados UnidosEuropa Asia Latinoamérica Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015

13 Retorno sobre Activos (ROA) 13 El crecimiento de las ganancias varía por país en Latinoamérica Los márgenes operativas tienen una expectativa al alza en todas las regiones, en relación al año 2014  Los CFOs en Latinoamérica esperan, en su mayorìa, una mejora moderada del ROA, especialmente en Perú y Chile

14 Duke/FGV CFO Survet en prensa Latinoamericana Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 14 La perspectiva de negocios en Latinoamérica es frecuentemente reportada en la prensa

15 Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 15 Duke/FGV CFO Survet en prensa Latinoamericana The Latin American Business Outlook is frequently reported in the press

16 Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Parte del Global Business Outlook Un esfuerzo conjunto entre Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas y CFO magazine Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 16

17 OLD SLIDES 17 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

18 From December 2014 18 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

19 Important Qualities of Board Directors Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 19 Industry and C-level managing experience are expected qualities of board directors  In addition to industry experience and as a C-level manager, companies like directors who are outside- the-box thinkers.  People skills are also sought after. What are the most important qualities for members of your board of directors? (Choose 3)

20 Composition of the Board of Directors Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 20 Only 6.8% of Latin American firms have specific goals or guidelines for the mix of men/women/minorities on the board.  Many boards fall short of their gender and minority targets. What is the target (current) composition of your board for men, women and minorities?

21 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Percentage of Millennial Employees 21 To the best of your knowledge, approximately what percentage of your company's employees are “Millennials” (under the age of 35)? Asia has the highest percentage of Millennial workers, followed by Latin America.  In Asia, around 44% of the workforce are Millennials, followed by 41.8% in Latin America.  US and Europe have the lowest level of Millennial workers, fewer than 30%.  Chile has the lowest proportion of Millennial workers within L.A.

22 Advantages of Employing Millennials Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 22 Millennials are valued for their technological and creative abilities  Employing Millennials can save firm costs in terms of salary.  Few firms consider Millennials to be more efficient workers. What are the primary advantages of employing Millennials under age 35?

23 Challenges Related to Employing Millennials Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 23 Firms consider Millennials to be less loyal to the company and more interested in individual professional development than in the company  Millennials require more management oversight and demand changes in corporate culture  Around 10% of firms concerned about the Me-first attitude of Millennials. What are the primary challenges related to employing Millennials (under age 35)?

24 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Make Changes to Retain or Recruit Millennials 24 Has your company made any changes in an effort to retain or recruit Millennials (under age 35)? Asia and Latin America have implemented the most changes to recruit or retain Millennials.  More than 60% of Asian and Latin CFOs say they have made changes in an effort to retain or recruit Millennials, consistent with the fact that Millennials are a larger proportion of workforce in these regions.  US, African, and European firms are less accommodating to Millennials.

25 Changes Made to Retain or Recruit Millennials Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 25 Firms redefine work hours and implement social responsibility policies for Millennials.  Firms redefine work hours to be more flexible, implement social responsibility policy and redefine company culture to retain and recruit Millennials.  Firms also implement new training and mentoring programs for Millennials. Has your company made any of the following changes in an effort to retain or recruit Millennials (under age 35)? Among firms that have made changes:

26 From September 2014 26 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

27 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Percentage of Workforce Earning Minimum Wage 27 Approximately what percentage of your primary workforce currently earns minimum wage? Asia has the highest percentage of workers earning minimum wage, followed by Africa.  Asia has more than 37% of the workforce earning minimum wage, followed by Africa’s 15.1%  About 8% of Latin America workers earn minimum wage, similar to the US and Europe.  Brazil has the lowest proportion of workers earning minimum wage.

28 Effect of Increasing Minimum Wage Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 28 Increasing the minimum wage would have multiple, offsetting effects  Firms would shift away from labor towards machines and pass the higher wages along to consumers in the form of higher product prices.  Higher wages would also increase worker productivity and employee turnover For your primary workforce, what would be the effect on your firm if the required minimum wage per hour were to increase by 40%? Would your company...

29 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Labor-Reducing Capital Investments 29 Has your company made or are you planning to make capital investments aimed at reducing the amount of labor needed at your company? Latin America has the highest intention to switch to labor-saving technologies  55% of the Latin CFOs say they have made or plan to make capital investment aimed at reducing the amount of labor needed, in effect shifting from labor towards robots  African CFOs have the least intention to switch to labor-saving technologies, perhaps reflecting low African wages. Protective labor laws reduce labor-saving techniques in Europe.

30 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Political Contributions 30 Does your company make political contributions? (Reported data are for firms located in countries that allow corporate political contributions) Most firms in emerging economies do not make political contributions  More than 50% of the European firms make political contributions, according to the survey respondents.  Latin American firms has the lowest rate of making political contributions.

31 Reasons for Making Political Contributions Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 31 What are the most important reasons that your company makes political contributions?

32 Managing Corporate Tax Exposure Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 32 Companies overwhelmingly agree that managing corporate tax exposure is important  Taxes affect business strategies and where to locate operations Do you Agree or Disagree the following statements about managing your company's corporate tax exposure.

33 From June 2014 33 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

34 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Intention to Deploy Cash Reserves 34 Is it likely that your firm will begin to deploy its cash reserves during the next 12 months? Most firms in emerging economies expect to use their cash reserves in the coming year  Due to good long-run investment opportunities, 72% of Latin American firms will deploy cash reserves  Only about half of US and European companies will spend out of cash reserves in the coming year

35 If deploying cash reserves, on what? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 35 72% of Latin American firms plan to spend their cash reserves in the next 12 months. Among these firms …  More than half will use the cash for business spending and investment, one-fourth to make acquisitions  Nearly 40% will use excess cash to pay down debt.  More than one-fourth need cash to cover operating losses or purchase raw materials

36 If not deploying cash, why not? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 36 28% of Latin American firms are NOT planning to spend cash reserves. Among these firms …  Nearly 30% say they lack excess cash to spend; another 30% say they have alternative sources of funds  Nearly 30% also indicate that they need to hold their cash reserve in case a liquidity need arises

37 Explicit Target for Cash 37 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 As your firm decides how much cash to hold, do you have an explicit "target" or "range" for the amount of cash and marketable securities to hold? About half of LA and Asian firms indicate that they maintain a specific target for how much cash to hold  Though not shown on this graph, if cash drifts below the target, they quickly try to increase cash holdings  If cash accumulates above the cash target, most LA firms move only slowly to decrease cash holdings

38 38 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Russian Business Connections in Latin America Has your company reduced your Russian-related activity? Though not shown on this graph, Latin American businesses are the least exposed to Russia in the world  Left: Among surveyed firms, none indicated they have pulled out of Russia, only a few evaluating  Right: Few Latin American firms indicate that severe sanctions on Russia would harm their prospects What would the impact be on your country's economy if severe financial sanctions were imposed (including restrictions in intra- bank transactions through the SWIFT system) on Russia as a result of activity in Ukraine?

39 Labor Unrest 39 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Do you expect labor unrest (e.g,. strikes, work stoppages) to affect your country's economy over the next 12 months? Three-fourths of Latin American firms expect labor unrest during the next 12 months  LA concerns about labor unrest are by far the highest in the world; few US firms share this concern  Though not shown on this graph, Brazil (85%) has the highest concern about labor unrest of any surveyed country in the world

40 What is the cause of labor unrest? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 40 General problems associated with slowing economic growth are the biggest cause of labor unrest in LA  Wage pressures, in part due to high inflation, are the second biggest cause of unrest.  Working conditions are not a major concern in LA. Though not on the graph, poor working conditions lead to labor unrest in China. If you expect labor unrest (e.g,. strikes, work stoppages) to affect your country's economy over the next 12 month, the unrest is driven by?

41 From Mar 2014 41 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

42 Merger and Acquisition Activity Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 42 As a region, Latin American M&A potential activity trails that of the US, Europe & Asia. About 23% of Latam CFOs expect their firms to make an acquisition in the next year World-wide, slightly more than one-fourth of companies expect to acquire assets of another firm  M&A activity is comparatively lower in Latin America, especially in Peru where only 16% of firms expect to acquire. M&A activity will be highest in Europe and lowest in AFrica.  European firms are the most likely to plan an international acquisition. Among surveyed Latam firms, CFOs in Chile are the most likely to make a cross-border acquisition.

43 Where will cross-border acquisitions occur? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 43 International acquisitions in Latin America will target companies operating in another Latam country, followed by North American targets. Latam acquisitions mostly regional, overlooking Asia:  Latin American CFOS express very little if any interest in acquiring Asian firms, focusing instead on the Americas  The U.S./Canada is the region most likely to plan to acquire a Latin American target.  Most regions focus their international acquisitions on firms in their own continent

44 Effects of Tighter U.S. FED Monetary Policy Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 44 What effect, if any, has the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's plan to taper its quantitative easing program had on your company's optimism about its business prospects for 2014? Emerging economics are more wary of U.S. monetary tightening than are U.S. companies  Only 1-in-5 U.S. companies expects direct negative effects from the FED tightening monetary policy  More CFOs in emerging regions are wary of FED tightening, probably because higher U.S. interest rates may lead to either higher emerging economy interest rates and/or depreciated emerging country currencies

45 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Effects of Uncertain Economic Conditions 45 Does Uncertainty about Economic Conditions Affect Your Business Planning? Growing uncertainty about economic conditions slows hiring and spending plans  Because Latin American CFOs have grown more uncertain about economic prospects, many are adopting a “wait and see” attitude in their own business plans  More than half of Latam companies have reduced hiring and spending plans due to economic uncertainty

46 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Effects of Uncertainty About Government Policies 46 Does Uncertainty about Government Economic Policies Affect Your Business Planning? Growing uncertainty about government policies reduces hiring and business spending  Because Latin American CFOs have grown more uncertain about future government policies, many are adopting a “wait and see” attitude in their hiring and capital spending plans  Though not shown in this graph, concerns about government policies are acute in Chile and Brazil

47 Corporate Culture Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 47 In both Latin America and in the U.S., customer-orientation and integrity are two primary aspects of corporate culture More similarities than differences in Corporate Culture  Still, Latin American CFOs put somewhat more emphasis on results (near-term and strategic) and somewhat less emphasis on customer orientation and integrity.

48 Planned Changes to Corporate Culture Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 48 Latin American CFOs plan to put more emphasis on strategic (long-term) results  Nearly 30% of Latam companies indicate that they will increase strategic focus, while nearly 25% say more focus on customer orientation  Though not shown in the graph, most Latam CFOs say that it is very important for their employees to understand the corporate culture. What is the primary focus of changes in corporate culture among Latin American firms?

49 Real Estate Bubbles? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 49 Approximately 50% of Latin American CFOs believe there is a real-estate bubble in the region compared to 70% in Asia, and 90% in China Real Estate Bubbles are significant concerns in Latin America and Asia  More than half of CFOs in Brazil and Peru indicate that they believe there is a real estate bubble in their home countries. A bursting bubble like what occurred in the U.S. in 2008-2010 could slow economic growth  An astounding 90% of Chinese CFOs believe China has a real estate bubble, and (though not shown in the graph) 30% think the Chinese bubble will burst in 2014