E NERGÍA EN EL M UNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera Foro de la Ingeniería – 23 de Julio de 2008.

Presentación del tema: "E NERGÍA EN EL M UNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera Foro de la Ingeniería – 23 de Julio de 2008."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 E NERGÍA EN EL M UNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera Foro de la Ingeniería – 23 de Julio de 2008

2

3 1. ENERGY IN THE WORLD

4 W ORLD P RIMARY E NERGY D EMAND BY S ECTOR Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2007

5 W ORLD P RIMARY E NERGY C ONSUMPTION 2007 Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008

6 E NERGY G ROWTH annual growth Oil 2.0 % Natural Gas 3.1 % Coal 5.7 % Nuclear 0.4 % Hydro 3.1 % TOTAL3.3% Last 5 years:

7 2. O IL

8 W ORLD O IL P RICES A ND P RODUCTION Source: Oil Market Report IEA - Platts 90s2001200220032004200520062007May-08 [USD/bbl] WTI20.725.926.231.141.556.666.072.2125.4 [MMbbl/d] % 2007 OPEC31.329.931.934.436.036.335.9 43.2% FSU 8.6 9.410.311.211.612.2 12.8 15.4% Rest of the World35.235.635.635.534.934.634.5 41.4% TOTAL75.174.977.881.182.583.1 83.2100%

9 U PSTREAM I NVESTMENTS 20042006 [B USD] Rest of the World100.0162.0 China 12.6 21.5

10 A THABASCA O IL S ANDS & O RINOCO F AJA THE OIL FACTORY Process: Mining: deforestation, elimination of non-bitumen soil, mining, transport to the mill (3 tonnes of mineral are needed for every barrel produced) crushing and filtering, “primary refining” to obtain bitumen, transport of the by-products to the place of origin, transport of the bitumen mixed with a solvent to an ad hoc refinery which transforms the bitumen into synthetic oil, then sold to normal refineries around the world. Steam Injection: drilling a dual well with two horizontal conduits, sourcing water and then natural gas to produce steam and inject it into the well through one of the horizontal conduits, producing hot bitumen through the other conduit and repeating the double refinery process in the same way as in the Mining process. Investment: 15 USD billion to produce 100 000 bbl/d

11 W ORLD P EAK O IL Source: The Future of Oil, Maurice Dusseault

12 B IO- F UELS Ex-Refinery Cost [USD/liter]Bio-FuelB-F equivalent OilOil Bio-diesel – soybean oil1.461.620.94 Bio-ethanol – corn0.751.130.94 Bio-ethanol – sugar 0.460.680.94 ALL seed oil production => 7% of diesel oil demand ALL sugar and corn production => 20% of gasoline demand May-08

13 W ORLD O IL D EMAND Source: Oil Market Report IEA - Platts 90s2001200220032004200520062007 [USD/bbl] WTI20.725.926.231.141.556.666.072.2 [MMbbl/d] WORLD DEMAND75.174.977.881.182.583.183.2 “The problem with oil is that demand is too young and supply is too old”. Matthew Simmons

14 R ETAIL P RICES Source: EIA-DOE, ANP, Argentine Energy Secretariat and own research – May-08 GASOLINEDIESEL OIL [USD/liter] US0.911.03 Germany2.151.99 China0.80-- India1.200.90 Brazil1.461.10 Argentina 0.810.60

15 W ORLD P RIMARY E NERGY C ONSUMPTION 2007 Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008

16 E LECTRICITY WTI= 125 U$S/bbl Source: Own research INVESTMENT FUEL COSTO&MTOTAL [USD/kW][USD/MWh][USD/unit] [USD/MWh][USD/MWh][USD/MWh] Natural Gas -CC 80013.1 12 USD/MMbtu 85.2 4 102 Coal -ST2,00038.5 140 USD/ tn 51.1 6 96 Fuel Oil – ST1,50027.1 632 USD/tn 141.9 7176 Diesel Oil – CC 80013.1 1 205 USD/tn 191.0 5209 Nuclear3,50070.8 140 USD/kg 4.9 8 84 Hydro3,000105.1- - 7 112 Wind2,00095.9- - 6 102 Solar6,000402.3- -14416

17 E LECTRICITY Source: Own research Paper MMM 20071Q-2008[USD/MWh] Natural Gas -CC72102 Coal -ST 6996 Fuel Oil – ST104176 Diesel Oil – CC119209 Nuclear 6684 Hydro 94112 Wind 88102 Solar416416 THRESHOLD80100 Investment + Fuel Cost + O&M

18 3. NATURAL GAS

19 N ATURAL G AS P RICES Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008 given in Natural Gas Week - Bloomberg 90s2001200220032004200520062007May-08 [USD/MMbtu] HENRY HUB2.24.13.35.65.98.86.87.011.3

20 N ATURAL G AS R ESERVES AND P RODUCTION Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008 PRODUCTIONRESERVESR/P [TCF][TCF][years] Russia21.51,577 74 US19.3 211 11 Iran 4.0 982246 Qatar2.1 904428 Others56.92,589 45 TOTAL103.86,26360

21 N ATURAL G AS P RODUCTION Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2007 - 2008 2001200220032004200520062007 [TCF] Russia19.219.620.420.821.121.621.5 US19.618.919.118.518.118.519.3 Iran 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.84.0 Qatar 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.82.1 Others45.647.048.851.353.855.757.0 TOTAL87.789.192.395.298.2101.4103.8 Annual average growth 2002-20073%

22 N ATURAL G AS P ROFILE Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008 2007 [TCF] Own consumption (via gas pipeline) 75.873% Exports via gas pipeline 19.419% Exports via LNG 8.0 8% TOTAL103.2100%

23 N ATURAL G AS R ESERVES North America South & Central America Europe & Eurasia Middle East Asia Pacific Africa 273 TCF 515 TCF 511 TCF 281 TCF 2,098 TCF 2,585 TCF Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008

24 L NG I NVESTMENTS MM USDUSD/MMbtu Liquefaction2,2002.2 Transport* (ships)600 – 1,000 0.8 - 1.1 Regasification8000.7 TOTAL3,600 – 4,0003.7 – 4.0 Depending on distance Sep-07

25 4. COAL

26 C OAL R ESERVES AND P RODUCTION Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008 PRODUCTIONRESERVESR/P [MMtn][MMtn][years] China2,537114,500 45 US1,039242,721234 India 478 56,498118 Australia 394 76,600194 Russia 314157,010500 South Africa 269 48,000178 Others1,365152,159112 TOTAL6,396847,488133 “Coal is the best of fuels, coal is the worst of fuels” Kenneth Deffeyes

27 C OAL vs. N ATURAL G AS G ENERATION C OSTS NATURAL GASCOALCOAL CCSTIGCC Investment [USD/kW]8002,000 3,000 Fuel Cost12 USD/MMbtu140 USD/tn 140 USD/tn Generation Cost [USD/MWh]10296112 Emissions [CO2 tn/MWh]0.4320.8940.350 Source: Own Research – EIA-DOE

28 E MISSIONS Source: EIA-DOE CO2 tn/MWh SOURCE Coal 0.894 Oil 0.659 Natural Gas 0.432 Nuclear - Wind - Hydro-

29 5. NUCLEAR

30 U RANIUM R ESOURCES AND P RODUCTION Source: World Nuclear Association PRODUCTIONRESOURCES [TU/year][TU] Canada 9,862 444,000 Australia 7,5931,143,000 Kazakhstan 5,279 816,000 Niger 3,434 225,000 Russia 3,400 172,000 Others10,0871,943,000 TOTAL 39,6554,743,000 R/P [years]120

31 U RANIUM P RICES Source: Trade Tech – www.uranium.info 2001200220032004200520062007Mar-08 [USD/kg] Price U3O8 2022254164110200157

32 N UCLEAR R EACTORS Source: World Nuclear Association REACTORS Mar-08GENERATION 07 NoCAPACITY [MWe][billion kWh] US104 99,049806.6 France 59 63,473420.1 Japan 55 47,577267.0 Russia 31 21,743148.0 Germany 17 20,339133.2 China 11 8,58759.3 Others162111,221773.8 TOTAL439371,9892,608 UTILIZATION FACTOR80%

33 W IND P OWER Source: Global Wind Energy Council 20062007 [MW] Germany20,62222,247 Spain11,61515,145 US11,60316,818 India6,2708,000 Denmark 3,1363,125 China2,6046,050 Others 18,38322,738 TOTAL 74,23394,123

34 6. ARGENTINA

35 E NERGY C ONSUMPTION 2007 Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat - BP Statistical Review of World 2008 ARGENTINA WORLD

36 A RGENTINE E NERGY C ONSUMPTION Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat 200120022003200420052006 MMToe65.463.068.371.471.777.9

37 E LECTRICITY G ENERATION 2007 Source: Cammesa- EIA DOE – IEA – World Nuclear Association ARGENTINA WORLD

38 A RGENTINE E LECTRICITY C ONSUMPTION Source: Cammesa 2001200220032004200520062007 GWh 86,01581,34886,44293,28698,160104,627108,482

39 A RGENTINE O IL P RODUCTION & C ONSUMPTION Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat

40 A RGENTINE N ATURAL G AS P RODUCTION & C ONSUMPTION Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat – IAPG - Enargas

41 7. CONCLUSIONES Energía en el mundo La era de la escasez MMM- Septiembre 07

42 C ONCLUSIONES Preámbulo “Se avecinan tiempos de escasez y de precios cada vez más altos. Nuestro estilo de vida está cambiando y va a seguir cambiando. Será un cambio ordenado si los responsables en el orden mundial reaccionan a tiempo. Será un cambio caótico si, como hasta ahora, los hechos llevan la delantera y las decisiones se toman cuando ya es demasiado tarde.” La Tecnología “Muchos analistas confían en que los proyectos de investigación y desarrollo en curso aportarán nuevas y maravillosas fuentes que solucionen nuestros problemas energéticos y, también, ambientales. “El ser humano tiene una enorme creatividad, pronto surgirá la tecnología adecuada”, escuchamos con frecuencia. Mi opinión es que, posiblemente, habrá novedades, pero nada nos evitará entrar de lleno en la crisis que se avecina.”

43 C ONCLUSIONES P x Q. Oferta y Demanda “En la ecuación energética de P, precio, y Q, cantidad, ambas tan importantes para nuestra vida en general, la única variable que debería interesarle a partir de ahora a los países y a las sociedades en general es “asegurar Q”. A cualquier precio, porque la energía más cara es la que no se tiene.” ¿Quién se hace cargo? “Desde el tablero de las decisiones energéticas, los tiempos se cuentan en lustros o décadas. Cuando llega el dolor es tarde porque ya no hay tratamiento posible. Se requieren verdaderos estadistas a escala mundial para corregir el rumbo a tiempo, principalmente porque ninguna de las soluciones posibles tiene “aceptación pública” inmediata.”

44 E NERGÍA EN EL M UNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera Foro de la Ingeniería – 23 de Julio de 2008