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Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Rafael Popper – PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation.

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Presentación del tema: "Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Rafael Popper – PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Rafael Popper – PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research, University of Manchester Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies

2 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Guides & Handbooks The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (2008) Practical Guide to Research Infrastructure Foresight (2007) Global Foresight Outlook (2007) The Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (translated into EU languages) UNIDO Technology Foresight Training Manual

3 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Process A The EUFORIA case

4 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Work plan

5 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Process B The SCOPE case

6 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Methodology Scanning & Desk studies (national reports sub-contracted) Validation of desk studies (May-June 2005) Drivers & trends (May-June 2005) Scenarios (June-July 2005) Validation & Prioritisation (August-September 2005) Recommendations (December 2005 – January 2006)

7 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Process C The iKnow case

8 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Example of Work Plan / Logic Chart

9 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Workplan The iKnow case

10 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) A Foresight Process… Example of Work Plan / Timeline

11 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) A Foresight Process… Example of Work Plan / Logic Chart Knowledge Generation

12 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) A Foresight Process… Example of Work Packages (tasks & deliverables) Work package number5Start date or starting event:10 Work package titleWild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys (at national and regional levels in four countries) Activity TypeRTD Participant number Person-months per participant: Objectives To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted interviews. To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ). To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions. Description of work Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels. Task5.1: Survey preparation: In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself. Task 5.2: Sampling and identification of respondents: A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes: (i) higher education institutions (HEI); (ii) public sector research performers other than HEI; (iii) research funding organisations; (iv) governmental bodies; (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations; (vi) commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees; (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees; (viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below). Task 5.3: Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, based): As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means are not sufficient. Task 5.4: Country and cross-country analysis: Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports. Task 5.5: Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools Deliverables D5.1: Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery: month 15 D5.2: Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery: month 15 D5.3: Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery: month 15 D5.4: Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery: month 15 D5.5: Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery: month 15 D5.6: Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery: month 16 D5.7: Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery: month 17 Tasks DeliverablesObjectives

13 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Building a Research Process (RP) Diamond 9 methods8 methods7 methods 8 methods vs. 6 methods ?

14 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) The Foresight Process Quite often foresight is understood as a process with various complementary phases. 1.Pre-Foresight 2.Recruitment 3.Generation 4.Action 5.Renewal Miles (2002), Popper (2008)

15 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) The Foresight Process (R. Popper, 2008) Pre-Foresight Rationales Sponsor(s) Objectives Orientation Resources - Core team * - Time - Money - Infrastructure - Cultural - Political Approaches Time horizon Methodology Workplan - Activities - Tasks - Deliverables Scope - Context - Coverage Recruitment Project team * - skills Partners Sub-contractors Steering Group Experts - Thematic - Sectoral - Regional - National - International Champions - Thematic - … Panels Methodologists Facilitators Rapporteurs Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures Step 4: shaping the future through strategic planning Step 5: evaluating Generation Existing knowledge is amalgamated, analysed and synthesised Tacit knowledge is codified New knowledge is generated (such as the elucidation of emerging issues, creation of new visions and images of the future, etc.) Action Advising - Strategies - Policy Options - Recommendations - … Transforming - Networking - Policy-making - Decision-making - … KNOWLEDGE Renewal Learning - Process - Products Evaluation - Impacts - Efficiency - Appropriateness Dissemination - Shared Visions - Foresight Culture - …

16 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Objectives and Rationales To map existing strengths/weaknesses and explore complementarities/overlaps of the networking centres/organisations To identify future S&T and socio-economic opportunities and threats that should be addressed To illustrate the unsustainability of the old management and business models and to demonstrate the need for international collaboration or cluster formation To function as a forum for involvement and participation of stakeholders in different countries To build a strong vision that the participants of the network/cluster can sign up to To strengthen the strategic capacity of managers of the national centres, as well as national policy makers Recruitment Generation Action Renewal

17 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Selection criteria (if applicable!) Futures Require looking ahead at least 10 years, in areas where the outcomes are uncertain. This typically occurs where the future direction of change is rapid, current trends are uncertain or different trends may converge; S&T Have science and technology as the main drivers of change or are capable of impacting substantially on future scenarios; Value-added: Impact Have outcomes that can be influenced, to an extent that is significant for one or more of the economy, society and the environment; Value added: Existing work Are not covered by work carried on elsewhere. However, they must build from areas of active research; Networks Require an inter-disciplinary approach to the science, and bring together groups from academia, business and government. They must not be capable of resolution by a single group; and Buy-in Command the support of the groups most likely to be able to influence the future and be owned by a lead government department. Recruitment Generation Action Renewal

18 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Expected outcomes An efficiently functioning network/cluster of upgraded facilities, better placed to: respond to emerging scientific developments and growing multi-disciplinarity meet the demands for new and diverse services ensure better access to unique equipment and data bases attract young researchers, and improve harvesting and exploitation of existing knowledge. Action Renewal Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation

19 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Sponsors The exercise is promoted by national agencies (e.g. SENA, Colciencias, etc.). In addition, the international sponsors could be considered (e.g. CAB, CAF, etc.). Project team The exercise is organised and managed by a mix of strategic planners from SENA and an national/international consultancy specialising in 3D and Foresight. Duration Given the complicated nature of the issues and institutional landscape, the exercise has 18-month duration. Time horizon 7, 10, 15 years (dependent on the issue under consideration, e.g. platforms, markets). Action Renewal Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation

20 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Recruitment Participation Its distributed nature – which is required for local knowledge and embeddedness – has the need for: regular face-to-face meetings and special attention to be paid to communication processes. Steering group In addition, a national/regional steering group is built of: facility/company directors and national policy makers …together with several small national working parties of: leading scientists and trainers research managers. Pre-Foresight Generation Action Renewal

21 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Panels / Working groups National working groups are set up around each of the existing centres – in order to: collect and process national data make sense of foresight results in a localised context. There is a great deal of overlap in membership between all of these groups to ensure communication, while the working language of the transnational groups is English. Experts / Members Members are drawn mostly from: research centres, national ministries, and other interested stakeholders, including: business representatives and branch associations. Action Renewal Recruitment Pre-Foresight Generation

22 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Recruitment Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting Pre-Foresight Generation Action Renewal

23 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Stage The exercise begins with an extensive programme of deskwork involving: the preparation of future outlooks on several of the sub-fields that constitute the area, the mapping of existing strengths and weaknesses, the exploration of complementarities and overlaps across the current national centres, and an international benchmarking exercise How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting Recruitment Pre-Foresight Generation Action Renewal

24 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Stage Starting a little later but also working in parallel, a survey is carried out with scientists, industrialists, and public policy makers in order to: capture the likely S&T needs of user communities (the application sector) identify key technologies Following this, national and international working groups brainstorm around the emerging results of the exercise with the purpose of: generating topic statements for an (inter)national online Delphi How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting Recruitment Pre-Foresight Generation Action Renewal

25 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Stage Delphi is a means of consulting more widely around issues of uncertainty and likely importance. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Statement 1 Statement 2 Statement 3 Statement n Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting Recruitment Pre-Foresight Generation Action Renewal

26 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Stage Delphi is also used as a prioritisation tool, for example, identifying IST application areas contributing to EU goals How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting TOP 5 AREAS Education and learning Social welfare/ public services Government Work organisation Cultural diversity Recruitment Pre-Foresight Generation Action Renewal

27 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Stage Drawing upon the results of earlier steps, the project team draft several scenarios that portray the regions scientific and industrial profiles in different worlds, depending upon: the level of collaboration between stakeholders, and the governance and renewal of the national centres. These are used to: illustrate to a wide audience the unsustainability of business as usual, and demonstrate the need for (inter)national collaboration How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting Recruitment Pre-Foresight Generation Action Renewal

28 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Stage The d esk-scenarios are used in a scenario workshop to: generate a strong future vision (in the form of asuccess scenario) that the national ministries, national centres, and national communities can sign up to, and lead to the proposal of concrete recommendations for moving forward through a backcasting exercise How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting Recruitment Pre-Foresight Generation Action Renewal

29 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) How could foresight network/cluster facilities? However, t he elaboration of the success scenario on the future network/cluster requires the development of actions under several important topics, such as: a)design of common research agendas for applied and advanced research; b)opportunities for acquiring and sharing equipment, knowledge and skills; c)new access schemes to national centres resources; d)new collaboration modes and diversification of services; e)increase in multidisciplinarity of research fields; f)gaining pan-European significance; g)optimisation of knowledge exploitation and innovation processes; h)communication across the network of facilities; and i)design of the infrastructure of the networked facility or cluster (for example, centralized with sub-nodes, virtual, etc.), determined by its function. Recruitment Pre-Foresight Generation Action Renewal

30 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Once (a) the results have been generated and (b) recommendations articulated, the national and international structures put in place are transformed into implementation bodies. In this phase, an important challenge is: to attract the necessary funding – from national governments and the EC – to carry through the recommendations. But with clear plans based upon extensive research and consultation, it is much easier to convince funding bodies of the merits of the network. Product benefits Foresight has created a codified output that is useful for follow-up action Process benefits Foresight has also provided a forum for the involvement and participation of stakeholders in different countries. The strategic dialogue space afforded by foresight has aided communication, understanding and collaboration across geographical and organisational boundaries that would otherwise have been difficult to bridge. Pre-Foresight Generation Action Recruitment Renewal

31 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Since the network/cluster could become a large facility even with pan-European significance, regular strategic thinking exercises should be conducted for: the identification of major breakthroughs in related fields that might require adjustments of the network/clusters vision. This could be done by: launching successive rounds of foresight establishing a permanent horizon scanning unit organising regular monitoring, evaluation and knowledge dissemination forums Etc. Action Renewal Pre-Foresight Generation Recruitment

32 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) …to methods you dont know you dont know… …to methods you think you dont know… A Foresight Process… Selecting methods Most Foresight methods are NOT different from those used in other disciplines. Foresighters use to borrow and adapt methods from management, planning and social sciences. The uniqueness of foresight methods is the combination of: futures thinking; networking; and policy-making. From methods you think you know... There are plenty of methods that can be used in Foresight Processes…

33 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) There are, of course, many other methods that can be used… 33 methods classified by Type of Technique QualitativeQuantitativeSemi-quantitative Methods providing meaning to events and perceptions. Such interpretations tend to be based on subjectivity or creativity often difficult to corroborate (e.g. brainstorming, interviews) Methods measuring variables and apply statistical analyses, using or generating (hopefully) reliable and valid data (e.g. economic indicators) Methods which apply mathematical principles to quantify subjectivity, rational judgements and viewpoints of experts and commentators (i.e. weighting opinions) 1.Backcasting 2.Brainstorming 3.Citizens panels 4.Conferences/workshops 5.Essays /Scenario writing 6.Expert panels 7.Genius forecasting 8.Interviews 9.Literature review 10.Morphological analysis 11.Relevance trees /logic charts 12.Role play / Acting 13.Scanning 14.Scenario /Scenario workshops 15.Science fictioning (SF) 16.Simulation gaming 17.Surveys 18.SWOT analysis 19.Weak signals /Wildcards 20.Benchmarking 21.Bibliometrics 22.Indicators / time series analysis 23.Modelling 24.Patent analysis 25.Trend extrapolation / impact analysis 26.Cross-impact / structural analysis 27.Delphi 28.Key / Critical technologies 29.Multi-criteria analysis 30.Polling / Voting 31.Quantitative scenarios / SMIC 32.Roadmapping 33.Stakeholder analysis Source: R. Popper (2008)

34 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) The Foresight Diamond (methods by type of knowledge source) Strongly influenced by imagination Strongly influenced by experiences and knowledge sharing Strongly influenced by discussions and knowledge exchange Strongly influenced by facts & data FLACSO 2008 Focus on Scenarios

35 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Building a Research Process (RP) Diamond 9 methods8 methods7 methods 8 methods vs. 6 methods ?

36 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Scanning Delphi Wild Cards Citizen panel Expert panel SWOT Methodology X (Forward) SWOTWild cards Citizen Panel Expert PanelDelphi Methodology X (Forward) Evidence + Broad Expertise + Wild Creativity + Interaction + Local Expertise + Strategic Creativity Detailed analysis of main issues around a particular sector/theme of study (sub-contracted). Large-scale exploratory study assessing the likeliness of occurrence and possible impacts of main issues highlighted by the scanning activity. Workshop-type activity aimed at identifying possible events which may challenge the occurrence of highly probable situations. Conference-type activity aimed at identifying major public concerns on critical issues. Reduced group of key stakeholders looking at future implications of main findings. Internal activity (possibly desk-work) aimed at synthesising outcomes in terms of current strengths and weaknesses as well as future opportunities and threats.

37 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) SWOT Expert panels Citizen panels Wild Cards Delphi Scanning SWOT Expert Panels Delphi Wild cardsCitizen Panels Scanning Methodology X (Backward) Methodology X (Backward) Strategic Creativity + Local Expertise + Interaction + Wild Creativity + Broad Expertise + Evidence Large-scale activity (e.g. workshop) aimed at identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats related to a sector / theme / technology / etc. Groups of experts looking at future implications of SWOT findings and clustering main issues into broader dimensions, such as social, technological, economic, etc. Regional task forces contextualising main issues and evaluating public acceptance. Large-scale normative study aimed at formulating policy recommendations. Internal activity aimed at identifying the success or failure of similar policy recommendations being implemented in comparable contexts, and better informing decision-making. internal activity aimed at identifying disruptive events and situations.

38 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) SCOPE 2015 Scenarios for Research and technology development cooperation with Europe EU-LA COOPERATION

39 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Project context and objectives Scenarios of future science and technology developments in developing countries 2015 Project supported by DG Research Directorate K-2 Science and Technology Foresight Objectives –To produce scenarios for the year 2015 focused on contextualised S&T developments in selected regions of developing countries; –To analyse the consequences of the scenarios for Europe and European RTD policy; –To use the above to provide advice to the European Union in the field for RTD policies in relation to developing countries.

40 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Regions and selected countries RegionCountries Sub-Saharan AfricaBotswana Ghana Kenya Nigeria Senegal Latin AmericaArgentina Chile Colombia Venezuela Commonwealth of Independent States Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Ukraine Maghreb and Mashreq(Egypt) Jordan Morocco Tunisia

41 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Regional Cooperation SCOPE 2015 LA countries (Argentina, Colombia, Chile and Venezuela) prepared a common scenario for the future cooperation on Foresight activities under the framework of LARA (Latin American Research Area) 2015

42 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Thematic Areas for Latin America 1.Biotechnology on agro, health and clothing – e.g. genomic, proteomic 2.ICT – software, services, applications, cultural and artistic content, Communication, Informatics Microelectronics, bioinformatics 3.Natural resources and environmental sciences – e.g. environmental certification of agro-processes, Biodiversity 4.Health 5.Agro-science and agriculture - Food engineering and technology, Food security 6.Energy and gas, nuclear technology 7.Material Sciences - metals, polymers, nanotechnology 8.Natural products – leather, textiles and wood 9.Aquaculture and fishing 10.Space technology 11.Clean technologies – for bio-products and bio-processes 12.Mining 13.Transport 14.Fine chemistry 15.Process engineering 16.Electronics 1.Health 2.Food, agro & biotechnology 3.ICT 4.Nanotech. 5.Energy 6.Environment 7.Transport 8.Socio-economic 9.Security and space EU Priority Themes

43 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Socio-economic Themes for LA –Regional and territorial integration problems –Internal exclusion problems learning from EU experiences with NMS –Social inclusion –Social innovation –Economy & sociology of technological change –Work and employment –Entrepreneurship

44 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Cooperation Drivers 1. GOVERNANCE AND GLOBALI-SATION 2. EDUCATION AND HUMAN RESOURCES 3. SUSTAINABILITY 4. GLOBALISATION, ECO. & IND. LANSCAPE 5. REGIONAL INTEGRATION 6. RTDI EFFORTS PUBLIC & PRIV. SECTOR 7. PRIVATE SEC. & THE LOCAL TECH. CAP. 8. RTDI AND REGIONAL NEEDS 9. DONOR STRATEGY 10. LINKS WITH RTD COOPERATION

45 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Forms of cooperation Strengthening the SMEs –especially building capacities (creativity, innovation, design) of human resources Technological transfer Building research capabilities –mobility programmes –Building capabilities of primary education educators Recognising labs and certificates of the countries Creating a joint observatory for S&T and funds Creating markets and investments

46 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Actions that needs to be taken 1.Targeting societys needs 2.Reaching society 3.Mapping and exploiting regional needs and commonalities 4.Strengthening the SMEs 5.Technological transfer 6.Recognising labs and certificates of the countries 7.Creating a joint observatory for S&T and funds 8.Creating markets and investments 9.Creating content and information in Spanish to build Web- based knowledge pool

47 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) ESCENARIOS 2020 Cooperación en Prospectiva Euro-latina Octubre 23, 2008 Flacso – Ciudad de México ESCENARIOS 2020 Cooperación en Prospectiva Euro-latina Octubre 23, 2008 Flacso – Ciudad de México

48 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Agenda 12:30 Construcción de grupos y dinámica del seminario-taller (5 minutos) 12:35 Ejes para la construcción de escenarios de articulación y cooperación entre la UE y ALC (10 minutos) 12:45 Primera Parte: –Elaboración de Escenarios de éxito (60 minutos) –Priorización y pertinencia de factores retardadores y aceleradores del cambio (30 minutos) –Diseño de Indicadores de logro y estrategias (45 minutos). 16:30 Segunda parte: –Presentación de resultados en plenaria

49 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) ROLES Each group should appoint a chair and a rapporteur. Either or both of these people may be responsible for writing notes onto whiteboards and flip charts, etc. Chairs role: to keep the break-out groups to their task; to ensure that all participants have a say and that people are not being excluded due to other peoples forcefulness or superior status, to defuse conflicts. Rapporteurs role: to keep notes on the process and decisions, and be prepared to report these back to the workshop. Please make brief presentations – 5 minutes at the absolute maximum. Discussion at this point should be mainly a matter of clarification and points of information. Everybodys role: Remember that you are being asked to participate as an individual, not a representative of an organisation. Please talk on the basis of your views, your knowledge. One ground-rule of Foresight work is that remarks are not attributed to individuals, and people should be free to express their views (and argue about each others views, in the spirit of constructive dialogue!). Of course, due attribution and thanks should be provided (unless requested otherwise) for work carried out, data provided, statistical analysis, etc.

50 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Instrucciones –1. Cada grupo elaborará un escenario de éxito dentro de la situación establecida. En cada uno de ellos deberá indicar: a)(15 min) actores b)(15 min) mecanismos de cooperación y organización c)(15 min) temas y focos de trabajo d)(15 min) factores direccionadores del escenario (LA; EU; EU-LA) e)(15 min) implicaciones y grandes preguntas. –2. Luego cada grupo deberá generar estrategias para el desarrollo de una serie de factores claves en la gestión de la cooperación: limitantes (frenos) y aceleradores del cambio (motores). Las estrategias deberán disminuir la influencia de los factores limitantes y potenciar la influencia de los factores aceleradores. Los grupos podrán escoger factores pertinentes al caso mexicano dentro de la lista suministrada a modo de ejemplo, o podrán incluir sus propios factores.

51 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Tipo de Cooperación amplia: Entrenamiento y capacidades; asesoría y apoyo Investigación conjunta y construcción de plataformas Tipo de Cooperación focalizada: Entrenamiento y capacidades; asesoría y apoyo Integración Informal Integración Formal Grado de Integración ESCENARIOS FLACSO-EULAKS

52 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Sustainable Partnership Knowledge Transfer Type of Cooperation Joint Research LA funded EU funded EU-LA funded Training / Capacities Basic Intermediate Advanced Post-graduate Advice / Support Process Design Methodology support Process Management Shared Platforms Knowledge base Infrastructures Instruments

53 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) informal Formal Type of Integration Uniones temporales Eventos científicos Puntuales u ocasio- nales, contactos Personales Creación de fondos, Programas de Formación avanzada, Movilidad, programas y proyectos de investigación Convenios y Contratos Desarrollo de instituciones Servicios de asesoría y consultoría

54 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Tipo de Cooperación amplia: Transferencia de conocimiento; asesoría y apoyo Investigación conjunta y construcción de plataformas Tipo de Cooperación focalizada: Transferencia de conocimiento; asesoría y apoyo Integración Informal Integración Formal Grado de Integración ESCENARIOS FLACSO-EULAKS

55 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) 1. Taller de Desarrollo de los escenarios (15 minutos para cada factor) 1. a) Actores principales (públicos, privados, académicos, sociales) Mexicanos Nivel nacional Nivel regional Nivel sectorial Internacionales 1. b) Mecanismos de cooperación prospectiva (y porqué) Asesoría y apoyo Entrenamiento y desarrollo de capacidades Investigación conjunta Desarrollo de plataformas de aprendizaje

56 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) 1. Factores para los escenarios 1. c) Temas y focos Contenido Mecanismos de selección de los temas y focos 1. d) Factores direccionadores (drivers) Latinos (e.g. FLACSO) Europeos (e.g. FP8) Euro-Latinos (e.g. EULAKS)

57 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) 1. Factores para los escenarios 1. e) Implicaciones y grandes preguntas Política Pública Desarrollo académico Desarrollo socioeconómico Desarrollo territorial

58 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Oportunidades de Cooperación Convocatoria Comisión Europea FP7 Activity 8.3. Major trends in society and their implications –Area Societal trends and lifestyles - SSH Social platform on research for families and family policies – EUR 1.5M (support action) Activity 8.4. Europe in the world –Area Interactions and interdependences between world regions and their implications - SSH Geopolitics and the role of Europe in a changing world – EUR 3M (coordinating action) Convocatorias con fondos latinoamericanos Actividades

59 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Coordination and support actions (coordinating actions) At least 3 independent legal entities, each of which is established in a MS or AC, and no two of which are established in the same MS or AC. Coordination and support actions (support actions) At least 1 legal entity Reglas de juego de la Comisión Europea Reglas de juego desde la cooperación latinoamericana

60 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) 2. Taller de Estrategias de Cooperación Los grupos seleccionarán tres factores aceleradores y tres factores retardadores del cambio, según su pertinencia y relevancia en el escenario (30 minutos). Los grupos discutirán la lista suministrada de factores. Podrán añadir factores por consenso si lo consideran necesario (15 minutos) Cada participante dentro del grupo tendrá derecho a 3 votos para elegir los factores aceleradores y retardadores. La votación se realizará individualmente, luego se consolidarán los resultados de acuerdo con el número de votos y se construye un consenso. (15 minutos) Una vez seleccionados los factores aceleradores y retardadores, los grupos construirán los indicadores de logro y las estrategias para cada factor (1 hora)

61 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Factores retardadores del cambio Comunicación. Necesidad de presupuesto para traducción, sobrecarga la coordinación y debilita la interacción. Demandas presupuestarias emergentes. El proyecto tomó un auge demasiado elevado en relación al proyecto original, requiriendo un mayor presupuesto para su ejecución. La asimetría de condiciones institucionales y capacidades de los miembros dificultan la asimilación de contenidos y la fluidez de los procesos organizativos. La inexperiencia de algunas instituciones, coordinadores y miembros de la red en la gestión de redes de conocimiento de amplia escala multicultural y en la gestión de las pasantitas). La falta de referentes comunes para la gestión de redes de conocimiento multiculturales y complejas. Muchas dificultades podrían anticiparse y resolverse fácilmente si se contara con información previa de como se pueden poner en marcha redes complejas. Disparidad en mecanismos de control de las instituciones y desconocimiento de los mismos. El costo de vida de Europa afecta los recursos para las movilidades provenientes de América Latina. La escasez de tiempo de los coordinadores locales debido a sus compromisos institucionales dificulta la óptima atención a los pasantes. Apoyo Institucional. Usualmente las instituciones participantes cargan al personal con numerosas actividades que disminuyen el tiempo disponible para las actividades de la red. Falta de Incentivos. El tiempo de dedicación de la coordinación no es compensado con el porcentaje asignado. Problemas de visa de AL-UE, especialmente movilidades desde Perú. Se requirieron 4 meses para activar la movilidad Perú España; negada visa de Perú a Hungría; al menos 2 meses para lograr una visa ocasiona dificultades de permiso otorgado por la institución para la realización del tránsito. Perfil Idóneo y Competencias Claves. Dificultades personales de concursantes seleccionados (que implicaron la selección de un nuevo candidato y, por ende, un nuevo plan de trabajo), fueron las principales causas del corrimiento del plan de movilidades.

62 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Factores aceleradores del cambio Gestión especializada de la red. La conformación de un Comité Científico y de Gestión de apoyo a la articulación de actividades de la Red. Visión compartida de futuro. Identidad de los Coordinadores de la Red con la misión a ser alcanzada, así como la necesidad de involucrar a otros actores y promover la cultura del pensamiento a largo plazo como estrategia de desarrollo social. Compromiso. Dedicación de los miembros de la Red y los Coordinadores. Dinamismo y desarrollo de puentes. Liderazgo institucional y acceso a contactos claves. Respaldo y credibilidad. Apoyo de organizaciones que confían en la seriedad de las academias involucradas. Elevada curva de experiencia. La experiencia internacional de instituciones líderes en la organización de procesos colaborativos complejos facilito la orientación del proceso. Aprovechamiento de la diversidad. La variedad de contextos culturales introduce riqueza de contenidos, metodologías, percepciones y formas de ver las situaciones. Enfoque en el aprendizaje colectivo. El enfoque de la red orientado al desarrollo de capacidades motiva a las personas e instituciones a asumir comportamientos proactivos. Las personas y las instituciones perciben beneficios tangibles a corto, mediano y largo plazo. Contacto cercano preexistente. Grado de Confianza y Conocimiento previo entre los miembros facilita el establecimiento de contactos. Integración social. El tiempo dedicado a las actividades sociales facilito el establecimiento de lazos personales entre los miembros, lo cual a su vez contribuyo a la gestión de las soluciones de dificultades. Visibilidad. El desarrollo de actividades con resultados visibles promueve la cooperación y maximiza las oportunidades colectivas. Aprovechamiento de dinámicas emergentes. Durante el transcurso de las actividades de la red surgen oportunidades no previstas que pueden conducir a resultados de alto impacto y prolongan la vida de la red.

63 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) EstrategiaIndicadores de LogroFactor crítico de éxito ESCENARIOS DE ÉXITO: CAMINO AL FUTURO DESEADO

64 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) EstrategiaIndicadores de LogroFactor crítico de éxito ESCENARIOS DE ÉXITO: CAMINO AL FUTURO DESEADO Reconocimiento Valor Agregado Número de idiomas en las que se traducen de las publicaciones de la red Número de artículos en revistas indexadas Número de invitaciones y participaciones en eventos centrales de prospectiva Número de solicitudes de ingreso Número de vinculaciones con organismos relevantes (CYT, internacionales, etc) Resaltar logros en revistas, reportes, publicaciones Movilizar network personales y ofertar productos atractivos y de alta calidad Priorizar ingreso de nuevos miembros en términos de prestigio y trabajo en el campo

65 Foresight: processes, practices and methodologiesR. Popper (2008) Many thanks


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