CONGRESO NACIONAL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE OCTUBRE DE 2011 Los mercados de Carbono
Situación actual en los mercados de carbono ¿Diez años (y mas..) de mercados de carbono y con cuales resultados? Post 2012:¿Hacia el fin de la era de los mercados regulados? Incertidumbre con el futuro de Kioto ¿Nuevos mecanismos y nuevos mercados? Transición del MDL ¿Con cuales recursos?
2010: el mercado se estabiliza (in billion US$)
Mercado Global dominado por EU ETS
Mercado CDM se devalua a la mitad CDM activity declined markedly reduced compliance needs due to slow economic recovery uncertainty re: post-2012 rules less origination activity as buyers seek predictable credits and less projects competition with AAUs and secondary CERs Following lower demand by EU ETS Segmentation due to qualitative restrictions (ban of CERs from industrial gases) Risk allocation reflects buyers’ market Catalytic role of CDM & JI disappears without post-2012 clarity CDM value (US$ billion -12% -59% -46%
6 Situación de los mercados y propuestas de comercio de emisiones Operating Likely (?)Considering © OECD/IEA ConsideringUnder preparationOperating
7 4 pillars as spelled out by High-level Advisory Group on Climate Financing (AGF): Public sources (Budget of developed countries) Development bank instruments Carbon markets Private capital Send price signal directing capital flows to less carbon-intensive options Lower cost of meeting emission reduction targets through trading Catalyze low-carbon growth in developing countries > transactions of offsets (essentially private flows) > public funds through auctions / transaction taxes > crowd in private capital in support of $100 billion target Mercados de carbono en el contexto de la financiación del cambio climático $100 bn per annum by 2020 Compares to historic ~$10 bn p.a. of international climate finance Cancun Agreements, mobilize long- term finance to address needs of developing countries