ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS: San Luis Potosí – Bledos – Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways Santín Martínez Gabriela Segura Herrera Eduardo 18 th ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL EMME/2 USERS’ CONFERENCE Mexico City, October 2004

ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways TOLL ROAD CHARACTERISTICS  Length: 76 km  Speed: 100 km/hr  Section: 12 m Villa de Arriaga Bledos La Pila

ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways CARS MAIN OD PAIRS CARS MAIN OD PAIRS Origin – Destination Pairs Daily Trips weekday Percentage Urban Zone SLP Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Colima, Nayarit % Guanajuato, Michoacán 55417% Villa de Arriaga 3059% Industrial Zone SLP Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Colima, Nayarit 1685% Guanajuato, Michoacán 923% States Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Colima, Nayarit, Norte de Tamaulipas 873%

ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways CARSTRIP PURPOSE CARS TRIP PURPOSE

ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFIC MODELS AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFIC MODELS Trip Generation Population and employment Trip Distribution Fratar Model, two – dimensional balance Modal Choice Trip Assignment Logit Model with travel time and toll User equilibrium and multiclass

ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways VALUE OF TIME VALUE OF TIME WeekendWeekday

ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways TRAFFICASSIGNMENT TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT

ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways TRAFFIC FORECAST TRAFFIC FORECAST Average Annual Daily Traffic ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2, Year Vehicles CarsBuses Single Frame TrucksTwo Unit Trucks

ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways AADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED AADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED Cars Buses Single Frame Trucks Two Unit Trucks -36.3% -8.2% 9.2%5.2% -43.8% 14.1% 56.4% 82.1% -68.4% -57.3% -45.7% -53.5% 93.7% 85.0% 84.5% 84.3% ,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1, Year Vehicles Observed Cars Estimated Cars Year Vehicles Observed Buses Estimated Buses Year Vehicles S.F.T. Observed S.F.T. Estimated Year Vehicles T.U.T. Observed T.U.T. Estimated

ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways VEHICLE COMPOSITION ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED MEDIUM SCENARY VEHICLE COMPOSITION ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED MEDIUM SCENARY

ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways Tránsito Observado vs. Estimado AADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED AADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED SLP-La Pila-Arriaga SLP-Cerritos-Río Verde ,000 1,050 1, Year AADT Observed Cars Estimated Cars ,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1, Year AADT Observed Cars Estimated Cars