Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Parte del Global Business Outlook Un esfuerzo conjunto entre Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas and CFO.

Presentación del tema: "Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Parte del Global Business Outlook Un esfuerzo conjunto entre Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas and CFO."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Parte del Global Business Outlook Un esfuerzo conjunto entre Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas and CFO magazine 1 Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015

2 2 1.Inestabilidad Económica 2.Riesgo de divisas 3.Política gubernamental 4.Baja demanda de productos/servicios 5.Código tributario corporativo 6.Inflación 7.Costo de capital 8.Requisitos de regulaciones 9.Acceso a capital 10.Productividad laboral Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015 Mayores preocupaciones para CFO’s en Latinoamérica

3 Índice de optimismo de negocios Perspectiva Global País / Región Perspectiva de Sep 2015 3 Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015 Índice de optimismo de País Índice de optimismo de sus compañías Sus Compañías El optimismo de CFO´s es moderado en Mexico y Peru, Brazil y Chile se mantienen pesimistas Notas: Información presentada refleja la media de un país o región en una escala de 0-100

4 4 Precio de Productos Las expectativas inflacionarias en Latinoamérica son relavitamente altas en promedio, lideradas por Brasil Perspectiva GlobalPerspectiva de Sep 2015 Expectativa en Latinoamérica, sin cambio  CFO´s en Latinoamérica anticipan un incremento significativo de precios, en gran medida debido a la alta inflación en Brasil  CFO´s en Europa, Asia, y EEUU esperan bajos niveles de inflación o deflación Expectativa de inflación es más alta en Brasil  De los paises participantes, Brasil muestra la expectativa mas alta en inflación  En Perú y Ecuador la expectativa de incrementos de precios es mas lenta en comparación con la región Expectativa de incremento de precio de productos Notas: Información presentada refleja la media de un país o región Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015

5 Perspectiva Global Ventas 5 CFO´s en Brasil creen que los niveles de ventas incrementarán mas de 10%, mientras que CFO´s en el resto de la región esperan un crecimiento igual o menor a 6% Ventas al alza en Latinoamérica  Las expectativas de ventas aumentaron respecto a la expectativa de crecimiento de ventas de 3.9% en el trimestre anterior  Crecimiento en ventas en Asia será el mas lento Ecuador y Mexico esperan crecimiento acelerado  Entre los países participantes, el crecimiento en Brasil será el mayor, seguido de Mexico  Neto de inflación, el crecimiento de ventas en Brasil será modesto  Ecuador espera caída de ventas durante el próximo año Perspectiva de Sep 2015 Expectativa de crecimiento en ventas Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015 Notas: Información presentada refleja la media de un país o región

6 Perspectiva Global Inversión de Capital 6 La inversión de capital en Latinoamérica se mantiene en línea con los trimestres anteriores, principalmente debido a las tendencias en Brasil y Chile Planes de inversión de capital permanecen en niveles bajos  La inversión de capital en Latinoamérica se mantendrá constante  La inversión de capital se mantiene fuerte en EEUU y Europa Niveles de Inversión varían en Latinoamérica  La inversión de capital aumentará positivamente en Perú y Mexico  Se anticipa una caída de la inversión en Brasil y Chile Perspectiva de Sep 2015 Expectativa de crecimiento en inversión de capital Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015 Notas: Información presentada refleja la media de un país o región

7 Perspectiva Global 7 Utilidades Las expectativas de crecimiento de utilidades en Latinoamérica se ubican en niveles bajos Crecimiento de utilidades cayó a cifras negativas este trimestre  El crecimiento en Latinoamérica aumentó a 2.9% este trimestre  El crecimiento de utilidades será acelerado en África, mientras que en Asia se mantendrá constante Menor crecimiento en utilidades en paises participantes de Latinoamérica  Brasil, Mexico and Perú anticipan crecimiento  Las utilidades en Brasil no crecerán al mismo ritmo que la inflación  Las expectativas en Chile y Ecuador son negativas Perspectiva de Sep 2015 Expectativa de cambios en utilidades Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015 Notas: Información presentada refleja la media de un país o región

8 Perspectiva Global 8 Crecimiento nulo en Latinoamérica  CFO´s en Latinoamérica no esperan crecimiento de la fuerza laboral en el próximo año  EEUU, Europa y África esperan crecimiento positivo Crecimiento de empleo varía en Latinoamérica  Brasil, Perú y Chile esperan reducciones en el ámbito laboral  Empleo crecerá moderadamente en Mexico, a una tasa esperada de 2.7% Perspectiva de Sep 2015 Perspectivas de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2015 Notas: Información presentada refleja la media de un país o región #FT=Número de empleados tiempo completo # Empleados tiempo completo Incremento moderado de trabajadores a tiempo completo CFO’s en Latinoamérica no anticipan incrementos de la fuerza laboral local este año

9 Perspectiva Global Salarios y Beneficios 9 Acelerado crecimiento salarial en economías emergentes  Asia, y África anticipan que los salarios incrementaran mas de 5%, una cifra superior a la de expectativa de inflación durante el mismo periodo en dichas regiones  En EEUU y Europa se anticipa que salarios incrementarán 3% Crecimiento de salario en términos reales es negativo en Brasil  Ante una inflación de 9.6% y con una expectativa de incrementos salariales de 7.3%, habrá un deterioro del poder de compra en Brasil. Chile espera una situación similar  En Peru y Mexico la expectativa es de incrementos salariales Perspectiva de Sep 2015 Ingresos salariales incrementaran Salarios y beneficios están proyectados a incrementar 5.5% en Latinoamérica Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015 Notas: Información presentada refleja la media de un país o región

10 Dificultad para ocupar posiciones clave 10 Los motivos varían en diferentes países de la región Las firmas en Mexico encuentran el mayor grado de dificultad para sustituir sus altos mandos, mientras que en Brasil encuentran la menor dificultad Que tan difícil es para tu firma ocupar los puestos disponibles en altos mandos? Grado de dificultad en términos porcentuales Varias firmas en Latinoamérica tienen dificultad para sustituir los altos mandos Europa encuentra mayor facilidad, mientras que en economías emergentes como Asia y África se encuentran dificultades Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015

11 Actividades en M&A 11 Las actividades de M&A en LATAM se encuentran por debajo de EEUU, Europa, Asia y África. Aproximadamente el 17.7% de los CFOs de LATAM esperan que sus empresas realicen una adquisición en el próximo año. En todo el mundo, poco más de una cuarta parte de las empresas esperan adquirir activos de otra empresa  M&A es comparativamente más bajo en América Latina que en otras regiones del mundo, especialmente en Perú donde sólo el 14.3 % de las empresas esperan realizar una adquisición. En Asia se verán el mayor número de actividades de M&A mientras que en LATAM se verá la menor cantidad de adquisiciones. Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015

12 Razones para hacer Adquisiciones 12 ¿Por qué su empresa esta adquiriendo nueva(s) compañía(s)? (Elija 3) Empresas latinoamericanas están adquiriendo empresas principalmente a mejorar su posición en la industria y por consolidación de la misma  Sinergias de ventas y costos impulsan adquisiciones.  El valor de las empresas objetivo anima a las empresas realizar nuevas adquisiciones Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015 Posición de la Industria Sinergias de Ingresos Valuación Atractiva Sinergias de Costos Diversificación Geográfica Consolidación de la Industria

13 Gestión de riesgos por región 13 ¿Cree usted que las empresas en su industria se han vuelto complacientes con respecto a la amenaza o los posibles efectos negativos del futuro económico (por ejemplo, de una recesión o crisis)? Porcentaje de respuestas afirmativas 40% de las empresas latinoamericanas son complacientes con la gestión de riesgos  África es la región menos complaciente  Casi la mitad de las empresas Asiáticas son complacientes con la gestión de riesgos, la mas alta a nivel mundial Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015

14 Gestión de riesgos en Latinoamérica 14 El nivel de complacencia con respecto a la gestión de riesgo varia dentro de Latinoamérica  Perú es el país mas complaciente (48%) seguido por Chile y Brasil  Pocas empresas en Uruguay son complacientes con la gestión de riesgo a la baja ¿Cree usted que las empresas en su industria se han vuelto complacientes con respecto a la amenaza o los posibles efectos negativos del futuro económico (por ejemplo, de una recesión o crisis)? Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015 Porcentaje de respuestas afirmativas

15 Perspectiva sobre el mercado de valores por región 15 Yo creo que el mercado de valores en mi país está (sobrevaluado o subvaluado): Porcentaje de sobrevaluado / subvaluado Latinoamérica es la única región del mundo en donde los CFOs piensan que el marcado de valores esta subvaluado  Solamente el 6% de las empresas en EEUU piensan que el mercado de valores esta subvaluado, el menor en el mundo  La mayoría de los CFOs de África piensan que su mercado de valores esta sobrevaluado Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015

16 Perspectiva sobre el mercado de valores en Latinoamérica 16 Yo creo que el mercado de valores en mi país está (sobrevaluado o subvaluado): Muchos CFOs de Latinoamérica creen que el mercado de valores esta subvaluado  Brasil es la región con la mayor proporción de empresas que creen que su mercado de valores esta subvaluado (78%)  Los CFOs de Chile y Uruguay creen que sus mercados de valores están sobrevaluados Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015 Porcentaje de sobrevaluado / subvaluado

17 Retorno sobre Activos (ROA) 17 El crecimiento de las ganancias varía por país en Latinoamérica Los márgenes operativos tienen una expectativa de crecimiento en todas las regiones con relación a las ganancias del 2014  Los CFO en Latinoamérica esperan una menor mejora del ROA comparado con el resto del mundo; Chile espera el peor retorno de activos. Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015

18 Duke CFO Survey en la prensa Latinoamericana 18 La perspectiva de negocios en Latinoamérica es frecuentemente reportada en la prensa Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015

19 19 Duke CFO Survey en la prensa Latinoamericana La perspectiva de negocios en Latinoamérica es frecuentemente reportada en la prensa Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015

20 Perspectivas de Negocio en Latinoamérica Parte del Global Business Outlook Un esfuerzo conjunto entre Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas and CFO magazine 20 Perspectiva de Negocios en Latinoamérica Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015

21 OLD SLIDES 21 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

22 From December 2014 22 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

23 Important Qualities of Board Directors 23 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Industry and C-level managing experience are expected qualities of board directors  In addition to industry experience and as a C-level manager, companies like directors who are outside- the-box thinkers.  People skills are also sought after. What are the most important qualities for members of your board of directors? (Choose 3)

24 Composition of the Board of Directors 24 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Only 6.8% of Latin American firms have specific goals or guidelines for the mix of men/women/minorities on the board.  Many boards fall short of their gender and minority targets. What is the target (current) composition of your board for men, women and minorities?

25 25 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Percentage of Millennial Employees To the best of your knowledge, approximately what percentage of your company's employees are “Millennials” (under the age of 35)? Asia has the highest percentage of Millennial workers, followed by Latin America.  In Asia, around 44% of the workforce are Millennials, followed by 41.8% in Latin America.  US and Europe have the lowest level of Millennial workers, fewer than 30%.  Chile has the lowest proportion of Millennial workers within L.A.

26 Advantages of Employing Millennials 26 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Millennials are valued for their technological and creative abilities  Employing Millennials can save firm costs in terms of salary.  Few firms consider Millennials to be more efficient workers. What are the primary advantages of employing Millennials under age 35?

27 Challenges Related to Employing Millennials 27 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Firms consider Millennials to be less loyal to the company and more interested in individual professional development than in the company  Millennials require more management oversight and demand changes in corporate culture  Around 10% of firms concerned about the Me-first attitude of Millennials. What are the primary challenges related to employing Millennials (under age 35)?

28 28 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Make Changes to Retain or Recruit Millennials Has your company made any changes in an effort to retain or recruit Millennials (under age 35)? Asia and Latin America have implemented the most changes to recruit or retain Millennials.  More than 60% of Asian and Latin CFOs say they have made changes in an effort to retain or recruit Millennials, consistent with the fact that Millennials are a larger proportion of workforce in these regions.  US, African, and European firms are less accommodating to Millennials.

29 Changes Made to Retain or Recruit Millennials 29 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Firms redefine work hours and implement social responsibility policies for Millennials.  Firms redefine work hours to be more flexible, implement social responsibility policy and redefine company culture to retain and recruit Millennials.  Firms also implement new training and mentoring programs for Millennials. Has your company made any of the following changes in an effort to retain or recruit Millennials (under age 35)? Among firms that have made changes:

30 From September 2014 30 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

31 31 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Percentage of Workforce Earning Minimum Wage Approximately what percentage of your primary workforce currently earns minimum wage? Asia has the highest percentage of workers earning minimum wage, followed by Africa.  Asia has more than 37% of the workforce earning minimum wage, followed by Africa’s 15.1%  About 8% of Latin America workers earn minimum wage, similar to the US and Europe.  Brazil has the lowest proportion of workers earning minimum wage.

32 Effect of Increasing Minimum Wage 32 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Increasing the minimum wage would have multiple, offsetting effects  Firms would shift away from labor towards machines and pass the higher wages along to consumers in the form of higher product prices.  Higher wages would also increase worker productivity and employee turnover For your primary workforce, what would be the effect on your firm if the required minimum wage per hour were to increase by 40%? Would your company...

33 33 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Labor-Reducing Capital Investments Has your company made or are you planning to make capital investments aimed at reducing the amount of labor needed at your company? Latin America has the highest intention to switch to labor-saving technologies  55% of the Latin CFOs say they have made or plan to make capital investment aimed at reducing the amount of labor needed, in effect shifting from labor towards robots  African CFOs have the least intention to switch to labor-saving technologies, perhaps reflecting low African wages. Protective labor laws reduce labor-saving techniques in Europe.

34 34 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Political Contributions Does your company make political contributions? (Reported data are for firms located in countries that allow corporate political contributions) Most firms in emerging economies do not make political contributions  More than 50% of the European firms make political contributions, according to the survey respondents.  Latin American firms has the lowest rate of making political contributions.

35 Reasons for Making Political Contributions 35 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 What are the most important reasons that your company makes political contributions?

36 Managing Corporate Tax Exposure 36 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Companies overwhelmingly agree that managing corporate tax exposure is important  Taxes affect business strategies and where to locate operations Do you Agree or Disagree the following statements about managing your company's corporate tax exposure.

37 From June 2014 37 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

38 38 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Intention to Deploy Cash Reserves Is it likely that your firm will begin to deploy its cash reserves during the next 12 months? Most firms in emerging economies expect to use their cash reserves in the coming year  Due to good long-run investment opportunities, 72% of Latin American firms will deploy cash reserves  Only about half of US and European companies will spend out of cash reserves in the coming year

39 If deploying cash reserves, on what? 39 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 72% of Latin American firms plan to spend their cash reserves in the next 12 months. Among these firms …  More than half will use the cash for business spending and investment, one-fourth to make acquisitions  Nearly 40% will use excess cash to pay down debt.  More than one-fourth need cash to cover operating losses or purchase raw materials

40 If not deploying cash, why not? 40 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 28% of Latin American firms are NOT planning to spend cash reserves. Among these firms …  Nearly 30% say they lack excess cash to spend; another 30% say they have alternative sources of funds  Nearly 30% also indicate that they need to hold their cash reserve in case a liquidity need arises

41 Explicit Target for Cash 41 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 As your firm decides how much cash to hold, do you have an explicit "target" or "range" for the amount of cash and marketable securities to hold? About half of LA and Asian firms indicate that they maintain a specific target for how much cash to hold  Though not shown on this graph, if cash drifts below the target, they quickly try to increase cash holdings  If cash accumulates above the cash target, most LA firms move only slowly to decrease cash holdings

42 Russian Business Connections in Latin America 42 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Has your company reduced your Russian-related activity? Though not shown on this graph, Latin American businesses are the least exposed to Russia in the world  Left: Among surveyed firms, none indicated they have pulled out of Russia, only a few evaluating  Right: Few Latin American firms indicate that severe sanctions on Russia would harm their prospects What would the impact be on your country's economy if severe financial sanctions were imposed (including restrictions in intra- bank transactions through the SWIFT system) on Russia as a result of activity in Ukraine?

43 Labor Unrest 43 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Do you expect labor unrest (e.g,. strikes, work stoppages) to affect your country's economy over the next 12 months? Three-fourths of Latin American firms expect labor unrest during the next 12 months  LA concerns about labor unrest are by far the highest in the world; few US firms share this concern  Though not shown on this graph, Brazil (85%) has the highest concern about labor unrest of any surveyed country in the world

44 What is the cause of labor unrest? 44 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 General problems associated with slowing economic growth are the biggest cause of labor unrest in LA  Wage pressures, in part due to high inflation, are the second biggest cause of unrest.  Working conditions are not a major concern in LA. Though not on the graph, poor working conditions lead to labor unrest in China. If you expect labor unrest (e.g,. strikes, work stoppages) to affect your country's economy over the next 12 month, the unrest is driven by?

45 From Mar 2014 45 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

46 Merger and Acquisition Activity 46 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 As a region, Latin American M&A potential activity trails that of the US, Europe & Asia. About 23% of Latam CFOs expect their firms to make an acquisition in the next year World-wide, slightly more than one-fourth of companies expect to acquire assets of another firm  M&A activity is comparatively lower in Latin America, especially in Peru where only 16% of firms expect to acquire. M&A activity will be highest in Europe and lowest in AFrica.  European firms are the most likely to plan an international acquisition. Among surveyed Latam firms, CFOs in Chile are the most likely to make a cross-border acquisition.

47 Where will cross-border acquisitions occur? 47 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 International acquisitions in Latin America will target companies operating in another Latam country, followed by North American targets. Latam acquisitions mostly regional, overlooking Asia:  Latin American CFOS express very little if any interest in acquiring Asian firms, focusing instead on the Americas  The U.S./Canada is the region most likely to plan to acquire a Latin American target.  Most regions focus their international acquisitions on firms in their own continent

48 Effects of Tighter U.S. FED Monetary Policy 48 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 What effect, if any, has the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's plan to taper its quantitative easing program had on your company's optimism about its business prospects for 2014? Emerging economics are more wary of U.S. monetary tightening than are U.S. companies  Only 1-in-5 U.S. companies expects direct negative effects from the FED tightening monetary policy  More CFOs in emerging regions are wary of FED tightening, probably because higher U.S. interest rates may lead to either higher emerging economy interest rates and/or depreciated emerging country currencies

49 49 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Effects of Uncertain Economic Conditions Does Uncertainty about Economic Conditions Affect Your Business Planning? Growing uncertainty about economic conditions slows hiring and spending plans  Because Latin American CFOs have grown more uncertain about economic prospects, many are adopting a “wait and see” attitude in their own business plans  More than half of Latam companies have reduced hiring and spending plans due to economic uncertainty

50 50 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Effects of Uncertainty About Government Policies Does Uncertainty about Government Economic Policies Affect Your Business Planning? Growing uncertainty about government policies reduces hiring and business spending  Because Latin American CFOs have grown more uncertain about future government policies, many are adopting a “wait and see” attitude in their hiring and capital spending plans  Though not shown in this graph, concerns about government policies are acute in Chile and Brazil

51 Corporate Culture 51 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 In both Latin America and in the U.S., customer-orientation and integrity are two primary aspects of corporate culture More similarities than differences in Corporate Culture  Still, Latin American CFOs put somewhat more emphasis on results (near-term and strategic) and somewhat less emphasis on customer orientation and integrity.

52 Planned Changes to Corporate Culture 52 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Latin American CFOs plan to put more emphasis on strategic (long-term) results  Nearly 30% of Latam companies indicate that they will increase strategic focus, while nearly 25% say more focus on customer orientation  Though not shown in the graph, most Latam CFOs say that it is very important for their employees to understand the corporate culture. What is the primary focus of changes in corporate culture among Latin American firms?

53 Real Estate Bubbles? 53 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Mar 2015 Approximately 50% of Latin American CFOs believe there is a real-estate bubble in the region compared to 70% in Asia, and 90% in China Real Estate Bubbles are significant concerns in Latin America and Asia  More than half of CFOs in Brazil and Peru indicate that they believe there is a real estate bubble in their home countries. A bursting bubble like what occurred in the U.S. in 2008-2010 could slow economic growth  An astounding 90% of Chinese CFOs believe China has a real estate bubble, and (though not shown in the graph) 30% think the Chinese bubble will burst in 2014

54 Slides from March 2015 54 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

55 Merger and Acquisition Activity 55 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015 As a region, plans for Latin American M&A activity trail that of other regions. About 13% of Latam CFOs expect their firms to make an acquisition in the next year World-wide, slightly more than one-fourth of companies expect to acquire assets of another firm  M&A activity is comparatively lower in Latin America, with only around 10% of firms expecting to acquire. M&A activity will be highest in Europe and Asia.  European firms are the most likely to plan an international acquisition. Among surveyed Latam firms, CFOs in Mexico and Peru are the most likely to make a cross-border acquisition.

56 Where will cross-border acquisitions occur? 56 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015 International acquisitions in Latin America will target companies operating in North American targets, followed by companies in other L.A. countries and European countries Latam acquisitions mostly North American or regional, overlooking Asia:  Latin American CFOS express very little if any interest in acquiring Asian firms, focusing instead on the Americas  Firms in the U.S. and Canada represent the region most likely to plan to acquire a Latin American target.  Most regions focus their international acquisitions on firms in their own continent

57 Composition of the Board of Directors Across the World 57 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Jun 2015 What is the target (current) composition of your board for men, women and minorities? United StatesEurope Asia Latin America

58 From June 2015 58 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

59 Hacking and Corporate Data Security 59 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015 To your knowledge, have hackers ever successfully penetrated your systems in an attempt to steal, change, or make public important data? Over 80% firms in all regions have experienced hacker activities in some ways  82% of US firms have been hacked, which surprisingly is the lowest hack rate in the world  87.3% of Latin American firms have been hacked, trailing only Europe (92%).

60 Action Taken in Latin America to Deter Hacking 60 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015 Latin American firms have taken action to fight hacking  Many firms have installed new software to strengthen data security, others have require employee training and have purchased hardware.  Latam firms much less likely than U.S. firms to attempt a ‘friendly hack’ to determine system weaknesses (18.9% for US vs 5.9% for Latam)

61 Probability of recession 61 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015 For your country, what do you think is the likelihood of a recession by the end of 2015? Latin America has the highest likelihood of recession, followed by Africa.  Brazilian CFO’s think their country is extremely likely to experience recession in 2015.  Other than Chile, other Latam countries think their likelihood of recession is greater than the U.S.

62 Focus of CFO 62 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sept 2015 What should be the focus of the CFO to best serve all stakeholders? Most Latin America CFOs believes that focusing on Budget and Forecast will best serve all stakeholders  Liquidity management and capital allocation are also very important  For the most part, CFOs think the focus should be forward-looking, not focused on historic data