5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology Luis Negrete: Explicar la necesidad de I+D.

Presentación del tema: "5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology Luis Negrete: Explicar la necesidad de I+D."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology Luis Negrete: Explicar la necesidad de I+D en el ámbito ATM para adecuar los servicios a las crecientes necesidades de la demanda Explicar el alcance del estudio: SNA=ATM+CNS Luis Negrete: Explicar la necesidad de I+D en el ámbito ATM para adecuar los servicios a las crecientes necesidades de la demanda Explicar el alcance del estudio: SNA=ATM+CNS 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS 23-27 June 2003 Luis Negrete Álvaro Urech Francisco Sáez Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology

2 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology CONTENTS Definition of performance indicators Network effects analysis Diagnosis: Status Diagram Summary and Conclusions Luis Negrete: Explicar la necesidad de I+D en el ámbito ATM para adecuar los servicios a las crecientes necesidades de la demanda Explicar el alcance del estudio: SNA=ATM+CNS Luis Negrete: Explicar la necesidad de I+D en el ámbito ATM para adecuar los servicios a las crecientes necesidades de la demanda Explicar el alcance del estudio: SNA=ATM+CNS 199920032010 PURPOSE AND SCOPE The objective of this lecture is to present an analytical methodology designed to evaluate the status of a given ATM scenario in terms of relationship, in a given time frame, between its offered capacity and the air traffic demand.

3 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology GENERAL CRITERIA ATC SECTOR: It is used as the basic capacity reference and as the most elemental operational component of the ATM system. For the purposes of the study, the ATM system is considered as a network conformed by aggregation of ATC sectors that are interrelated each other. NETWORK EFFECT: The relations between system components is evaluated through analysis of air traffic flows. “TACTICAL” FOCUS: The validity of the methodology is reduced to the short and medium term and an approach for determining its applicability timeframe is proposed. RELATIVE CHARACTER: The lack of a consolidated capacity reference model has led to the need of developing a methodology to perform analysis in relative terms. OBJECTIVITY: Once the definitions and the initial hypothesis are accepted, results are obtained by applying the methodology without incorporating any subjective judgement. EXCLUSION: The methodology does not take into account the human or the CNS components. Remark: The impact of the human and the CNS is considered the same for all ATC sectors.

4 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH DEFINITION OF SYSTEM PERFORMANCE INDICATORS: Definition of the metrics that would allow to model the behaviour of the system and, in this way, to measure and evaluate the features selected to be representative of its status. SCENARIO CHARACTERIZATION: Collection of all the necessary data to characterise the scenario by measuring its main features according to the indicators defined earlier. NETWORK EFFECTS ANALYSIS: Identification and quantification of the relations established among system components through air traffic demand. DIAGNOSIS: Preparation and interpretation of the system status diagram and quantification of the ATM system development limit (in time) under the current operational concept. CONCLUSIONS: Formulation of conclusions and proposal of generic solutions. Luis Negrete: “Lo que no se puede medir no se puede mejorar.” Luis Negrete: “Lo que no se puede medir no se puede mejorar.”

5 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology REFERENCE ATM SCENARIO: Spanish en-route ATC Sectorization

6 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology INPUT DATA: Projected evolution of the air traffic demand for the proposed reference ATM scenario.

7 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology DEFINITION OF SYSTEM PERFORMANCE INDICATORS SYSTEM STATUS: It is formulated as the relationship between the offered performance of the system (capacity) and the demand (air traffic) for services in quantitative terms (number of movements). Sustained Capacity Collaterality NOMINAL CRITICALITY NOMINAL EFFICIENCY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SYSTEM COMPONENTS: The system is considered to be conformed by aggregation of the ATC sectors and relationship between them is determined thorough the identification and quantification of ‘main traffic flows’ and ‘volume of traffic’ shared between sectors. Hourly Traffic Distribution Sustained Capacity Peak Capacity Occupation Factor Overflow Factor Saturation Factor Traffic Mix Mean Flight Time

8 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology DEFINITION OF SYSTEM PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Occupation Factor

9 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology DEFINITION OF SYSTEM PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Overflow Factor

10 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology DEFINITION OF SYSTEM PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Saturation Factor

11 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology DEFINITION OF SYSTEM PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ‘CRITICALITY’ (qualitative formulation): First of all, a sector is considered to be in critical status when, for a specific time interval (of several hours), it presents a traffic demand grater than its declared peak capacity; that is, a sector with Saturation Factor greater than zero. A priori, those sectors with Occupation Factor equal to 100% are also considered critical. To establish a prioritisation order, it is considered that for two sectors with equal Saturation Factor, the one with higher Occupation Factor shall be considered more critical. In the case that both factors are equal, the sector with greater Overflow Factor shall be considered more critical. ‘NOMINAL CRITICALITY’ (quantitative indicator): For every ATC sector, the nominal criticality is defined as the sum of the Saturation Factor and the Occupation Factor, weighed by 1.2 and 0.8 respectively (results from empiric evidence).

12 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology DEFINITION OF SYSTEM PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ‘NOMINAL EFFICIENCY’ (qualitative formulation): The aim of this performance indicator is to facilitate a way for performing a preliminary evaluation of the declared capacities of the ATC sectors. The proposed indicator tries to quantify the resulting relation between the declared capacity and the ‘potential capacity’ that could be expected taking into account the following intrinsic (structural) features that can represent, in principle, the ‘complexity’ of the sector: ‘DECLARED NOMINAL EFFICIENCY’ (quantitative indicator) is the sum of the Declared Sustained Capacity (scaled to a certain value of reference: i.e. 10 “points”) plus the sum (also scaled) of the Collaterality, Traffic Mix and Mean Flight Time, weighed by factors 0.2, 0.5 and 0.3 respectively (historical experience). Luis Negrete: Se considera que una mayor eficiencia nominal declarada representa un mejor grado de ajuste entre la capacidad declarada y la “complejidad” del sector. Se considera que un sector es más complejo cuanto mayor sea el número de sectores colaterales, con influencia, (incremento del número de trasferencias y coordinaciones), mayor mezcla de tráfico (incremento del número de conflictos potenciales debido a las interferencias entre el tráfico en evolución y el establecido) y menor tiempo de vuelo (menor tiempo y espacio para la reacción ante posibles conflictos y aumento de la frecuencia de trasferencias y coordinaciones). Se acepta también que los pesos de cada uno de estos factores son distintos y se estiman en función de la experiencia. Luis Negrete: Se considera que una mayor eficiencia nominal declarada representa un mejor grado de ajuste entre la capacidad declarada y la “complejidad” del sector. Se considera que un sector es más complejo cuanto mayor sea el número de sectores colaterales, con influencia, (incremento del número de trasferencias y coordinaciones), mayor mezcla de tráfico (incremento del número de conflictos potenciales debido a las interferencias entre el tráfico en evolución y el establecido) y menor tiempo de vuelo (menor tiempo y espacio para la reacción ante posibles conflictos y aumento de la frecuencia de trasferencias y coordinaciones). Se acepta también que los pesos de cada uno de estos factores son distintos y se estiman en función de la experiencia. ‘Collaterality’: Number of sectors adjacent to a given sector that have interrelation by principal air traffic flow. ‘Traffic Mix’: Proportion (in percentage) between traffic in evolution and established traffic. ‘Mean Flight Time’: Statistic value that gives the mean time that a flight remains inside the sector.

13 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology DEFINITION OF SYSTEM PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ‘RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SECTORS’ (qualitative formulation): ATM is a complex system composed of (depending on the selected approach) a large number of components (in this case, ATC sectors) strongly related to each other. With the goal of evaluating network effects, that is, the impact that the status and actions on a sector may have on the rest of the system, an indicator is defined to identify the relations among the different components of the system and to quantify their “intensity”. ‘TRAFFIC SHARED BETWEEN SECTORS’ (quantitative indicator): number of aircraft per day that cross any pair of ATC sectors (all the combinations), independently of the fact that the sectors were or not collateral. The linking element between ATC sectors is the air traffic demand, through the ‘main traffic flows’ of the system. They are defined as the aggregation of the main flows of each sector, which in turn are those flows that represent, at least, 80% of the number of movements/day in the sector.

14 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SECTORS: Identification of main traffic flows

15 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology SCENARIO CHARACTERISATION: Data collection

16 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology NETWORK EFFECTS ANALYSIS: ATC sector groupings < 100 100-200 > 200 Movimientos / día Luis Negrete: Aquí hay que poner de manifiesto el concepto de agrupación de sectores y el distinto carácter de la agrupación en función del estado de cada uno de los sectores que la conforman. Así puede haber agrupaciones de sectores críticos, pero también pueden existir agrupaciones de sectores críticos junto con sectores de “apoyo”. Hay que hacer mención al hecho de que las agrupaciones son distintas en función del sector en torno al que pivoten, y que no se cumple la propiedad conmutativa. Luis Negrete: Aquí hay que poner de manifiesto el concepto de agrupación de sectores y el distinto carácter de la agrupación en función del estado de cada uno de los sectores que la conforman. Así puede haber agrupaciones de sectores críticos, pero también pueden existir agrupaciones de sectores críticos junto con sectores de “apoyo”. Hay que hacer mención al hecho de que las agrupaciones son distintas en función del sector en torno al que pivoten, y que no se cumple la propiedad conmutativa. ‘SECTOR GROUPING’: Set of sectors interrelated in which the volume of traffic exchange (in number of movements) between pairs of sectors is greater than the value corresponding to the percentile 50 of the distribution of ‘traffic shared between sectors’.

17 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology NETWORK EFFECTS ANALYSIS: Categories of sector groupings CRITICAL SECTORS GROUPING: Set of related sectors that are not able to cope adequately with the air traffic demand in their airspace. Due to this, they need “urgent” actions related with the improvement/optimisation of their capacity, either individually or in-group. CRITICAL AND ‘SUPPORT’ SECTORS GROUPING: Set of related sectors where sectors that are not able to cope adequately with the air traffic demand (critical sectors) coexist with other sectors that, in general terms, are still able to provide ATC service to a greater number of aircraft in their airspace (support sectors). Luis Negrete: Aquí hay que poner de manifiesto el concepto de agrupación de sectores y el distinto carácter de la agrupación en función del estado de cada uno de los sectores que la conforman. Así puede haber agrupaciones de sectores críticos, pero también pueden existir agrupaciones de sectores críticos junto con sectores de “apoyo”. Se puede hacer un gráfico de ejemplo de agrupación con sectores de apoyo y rediseño del conjunto aprovechando los superávit de capacidad. Luis Negrete: Aquí hay que poner de manifiesto el concepto de agrupación de sectores y el distinto carácter de la agrupación en función del estado de cada uno de los sectores que la conforman. Así puede haber agrupaciones de sectores críticos, pero también pueden existir agrupaciones de sectores críticos junto con sectores de “apoyo”. Se puede hacer un gráfico de ejemplo de agrupación con sectores de apoyo y rediseño del conjunto aprovechando los superávit de capacidad. Taking into account the criticality of the sectors within each grouping, several categories of sector groupings can be found: N: Number of sectors in the grouping. N’: Final number of sectors after potential redesign. NON CRITICAL SECTORS GROUPING: Set of related sectors that have enough capacity to efficiently cope with the air traffic demand in their airspace.

18 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology Luis Negrete: Elasticidad potencial: Ganancia hipotética de capacidad que resultaría de desplazar su capacidad declarada actual al llevar al sector a la mejor eficiencia nominal declarada de referencia. Déficit marginal de capacidad:Incremento adicional de capacidad que sería preciso después de llevados los sectores a la situación de mejor eficiencia nominal, para alcanzar el valor de referencia de criticidad (mediana del conjunto, mejor relación c/d...). Luis Negrete: Elasticidad potencial: Ganancia hipotética de capacidad que resultaría de desplazar su capacidad declarada actual al llevar al sector a la mejor eficiencia nominal declarada de referencia. Déficit marginal de capacidad:Incremento adicional de capacidad que sería preciso después de llevados los sectores a la situación de mejor eficiencia nominal, para alcanzar el valor de referencia de criticidad (mediana del conjunto, mejor relación c/d...).  High criticality, low efficiency and high elasticity - Redesign + Capacity Revision  High criticality, high efficiency and low elasticity + Redesign - Capacity Revision  Low criticality, low efficiency and high elasticity Underuse  Low criticality, high efficiency and low elasticity OK DIAGNOSIS: System Status Diagram Nominal Declared Efficiency Criticality Criticality equivalent to OF=100, OvF=0 and SF=0 Medium Term The Relative Status Diagram represents the situation of each sector respect from the collectivity according to a combined analysis of certain ‘physical’ characteristics, the air traffic demand and its declared capacity. The Y-coordinate locates the sector according to its nominal criticality while the X-coordinate reflects its declared nominal efficiency. “Best in class”

19 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology DEFINITIONS Luis Negrete: Explicar la necesidad de I+D en el ámbito ATM para adecuar los servicios a las crecientes necesidades de la demanda Explicar el alcance del estudio: SNA=ATM+CNS Luis Negrete: Explicar la necesidad de I+D en el ámbito ATM para adecuar los servicios a las crecientes necesidades de la demanda Explicar el alcance del estudio: SNA=ATM+CNS Number of Aircraft Simultaneously in a sector (NAS): It is defined as the mean flight time (MFT) in the sector (expressed in hours) multiplied by the average Hourly Demand (HD) in the sector (in the considered time period) expressed in movements/hour. NAS=MTF·HD Number of Aircraft Simultaneously in ACC (NAS ACC): It is obtained as the sum of the NAS of the different sectors of the ACC (NASi). NAS ACC=  NASi DETERMINATION OF THE VALIDITY TIMEFRAME OF THE METHODOLOGY The diagnose methodology presented is applicable for short to medium term evaluation, but if we want to perform longer term analyses, it is important to take into account the widely accepted fact that the classical ATC sector concept could not cope with the expected air traffic demand for that time frame. The following analytical method is proposed to estimate the ATC system development limit (and so the methodology time limit).

20 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology INITIAL HYPOTHESIS Luis Negrete: Explicar la necesidad de I+D en el ámbito ATM para adecuar los servicios a las crecientes necesidades de la demanda Explicar el alcance del estudio: SNA=ATM+CNS Luis Negrete: Explicar la necesidad de I+D en el ámbito ATM para adecuar los servicios a las crecientes necesidades de la demanda Explicar el alcance del estudio: SNA=ATM+CNS The initial hypothesis is based on statistical studies developed by EUROCONTROL (FAP) corresponding to the ECAC area that show that in ACC’s with more than 600 movements per day, a correlation of 92% exists between the volume of the sector (Vs) and its mean flight time (MFT). The relation between these two parameters is as follows : MFT=K·Vs 0’31 where K=0’26 DEVELOPMENT (I) From the expression NAS = MFT·HD it can be conclude that: NAS= HD·K·Vs 0’31 DETERMINATION OF THE VALIDITY TIMEFRAME OF THE METHODOLOGY If we assume that the average hourly demand in a sector (HD) is constant, then: NAS = K’·Vs 0’31 where K’=constant Moreover, if we assume that the order of magnitude of the volume of the sectors in an ACC is similar, that is, Vs=constant, and if we define Ns as the number of sectors of an ACC, then: NAS ACC= K’·Vs 0’31 ·Ns

21 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology DEVELOPMENT (II) Luis Negrete: Explicar la necesidad de I+D en el ámbito ATM para adecuar los servicios a las crecientes necesidades de la demanda Explicar el alcance del estudio: SNA=ATM+CNS Luis Negrete: Explicar la necesidad de I+D en el ámbito ATM para adecuar los servicios a las crecientes necesidades de la demanda Explicar el alcance del estudio: SNA=ATM+CNS This last expression provides a direct relation between the number of sectors of an ACC with the number of aircraft simultaneously in it, for a fixed time instant. The relation between NAS ACC and Ns in two different time instants 1 and 2 is: Finally, the combination of the last two expressions provide the analytic expression that allows calculating the increment in number of sectors (NOS) of an ACC between two time instants (i.e. years) if the air traffic demand (NAS) in those times is known: NAS ACC2 / NAS ACC1=( K’·Vs2 0’31 ·Ns2) / ( K’·Vs1 0’31 ·Ns1) As the volume of the ACC is constant, we find that the relation between the number of sectors of an ACC and their respective volume are in inverse ratio: Ns2/Ns1=Vs1/Vs2 NOS in year2=NOS year1·(NAS ACC year2 / NAS ACC year1) 1/0’69 DETERMINATION OF THE VALIDITY TIMEFRAME OF THE METHODOLOGY

22 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology DETERMINATION OF THE VALIDITY TIMEFRAME OF THE METHODOLOGY ATM System development limit in time without changing the current operational concept

23 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology SUMMARY The analysis and diagnosis phases of the methodology allow the following: Identification of weaknesses and strengths of the ATM system components in the short and medium term Performance indicators Evaluation and quantification the nature of the weaknesses, leading to the identification of possible solutions in terms of:  Redesign of sector/grouping  Revision of declared capacity values. Status Diagram Identification of the relations among the system elements (sector grouping) and evaluation of common action possibilities. Network effects analysis Identification of the current ATM system development limit without changing the operational concept. Statistical model

24 5th USA/Europe ATM 2003 R&D Seminar PERFORMANCE AND METRICS Paper 10: ATM System Status Analysis Methodology CONCLUSIONS: Proposal of generic solutions 1. Revision of current declared capacity values of the ATC sectors 2. Redesign actions on airspace structures and ATC sectorization 3. Transition to the future ATM system through the introduction of new operational concepts.