VALORACION DE UNA EMPRESA REAL

Presentación del tema: "VALORACION DE UNA EMPRESA REAL"— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 VALORACION DE UNA EMPRESA REAL
Análisis TOP DOWN Valoración por varios métodos Conclusiones

2 Breve descripción empresa
KLABIN Breve descripción empresa

3 Breve descripción empresa
KLABIN Breve descripción empresa

4 Principales Indicadores Económicos (Global)
MACRO ECONOMIA La actividad económica mundial seguiría creciendo, en un contexto de moderadas presiones inflacionarias Principales Indicadores Económicos (Global)

5 Principales Indicadores Económicos (Brasil)
MACRO ECONOMIA Principales Indicadores Económicos (Brasil)

6 Indicadores Económicos
MACROECONOMIA Indicadores Económicos

7 Precios de materias primas
MACROECONOMIA Precios de materias primas

8 Spread deuda Brasilera
DEUDA US$ Spread deuda Brasilera

9 Spreads Brasil vs Mercados Emergentes
DEUDA US$ Spreads Brasil vs Mercados Emergentes

10 DEUDA US$ C-BOND

11 FX BRL

12 DEUDA R$ SELIC

13 R VARIABLE Bovespa

14 R VARIABLE “Valuations”

15 ANALISIS DE LA INDUSTRIA
Barreras a la entrada Economías de Escala Diferencias en productos Identificación de marca Cambio en costos Requerimientos de capital Acceso a la distribución Ventajas de costos absolutas Política gubernamental Respuesta competitivas Determinantes de competencia Crecimiento de la industria Costos Fijos Exceso de capacidad Diferenciación de productos Identificación de marca “Switching costs” Concentracion y balance Diversdad de competidores Barreras de salida Entendiendo el negocio Nuevos Entrantes Competidores Intensidad rivalidad Proveed. Clientes Determinantes del poder proveedores Diferenciación de insumos “Switching costs of suppliers and firms in the industry” Presencia de sustitutos de insumos Concentración de proveedores Importancia del volumen para proveedor Impacto de insumos en diferenciación de costos Amenaza de intengración hacia delante respectpo intengración hacia atrás de als empresas en la industria Determinantes del poder de compradores Capacidad de negocias Concentración V volumen de compra Sustituuir productoss UNDERSTAND BUSINESS: Understanding a company’s economic and industry context and management’s strategic responses are the first tasks in understanding the company. Because similar economic and technological factors affect all companies in an industry, industry knowledge helps analysts understand the basic characteristics of the markets served by a company and the economics of the company. An analyst conducting an industry analysis must also judge management’s strategic choices to better understand a company’s prospects for success in competition with other companies in the industry or industries in which that companies operate. PORTER may lead analysts to focus on the following questions: How attractive are the industries in which the company operates, in terms of prospects of profitability? We should try to understand the industry structure – underlying economic and technical characteristics – and the trends affecting that structure. What is the company’s relative competitive position within its industry Look at the level and trend of the company’s market share in the market in which it operates 3. Competitive strategy: Three general corporate strategies for achieving above average performance are.- COST LEADERSHIP – being the lowest cost producer while offering the products comparable to those of other companies, so that products can be priced at or near the industry average; DIFFERENTIATION – offering unique products or services along some dimensions that are valued by buyers so that the company can sell their products at a premium; FOCUS – seeking competitive advantage in a segment of the industry based on cost leadership or differentiation FORECAST Economic: Top down forecasting approach : moving from the international and national macroeconomic forecasts to industry forecasts and then to individual company and asset forecast Bottom- up approach to forectasing : Aggregate individual company forecasts, into industry forecasts and finally into macroeconomic forecasts. Financial: integrate analysis of industry prospects and competitive and corporate strategy with financial statement analysis to formulate specific numerical forecasts of items such as sales, earnings. LOOK for quality of earnings SIGNS Sensibilidad precios Differenciacion de productos Identidad de marca Sustitutos Amenaza de sustitutos Precios elativos “Switching costs” Propensión a sustituir Source:Michael Porter

16 ANALISIS DE LA INDUSTRIA
UNDERSTAND BUSINESS: Understanding a company’s economic and industry context and management’s strategic responses are the first tasks in understanding the company. Because similar economic and technological factors affect all companies in an industry, industry knowledge helps analysts understand the basic characteristics of the markets served by a company and the economics of the company. An analyst conducting an industry analysis must also judge management’s strategic choices to better understand a company’s prospects for success in competition with other companies in the industry or industries in which that companies operate. PORTER may lead analysts to focus on the following questions: How attractive are the industries in which the company operates, in terms of prospects of profitability? We should try to understand the industry structure – underlying economic and technical characteristics – and the trends affecting that structure. What is the company’s relative competitive position within its industry Look at the level and trend of the company’s market share in the market in which it operates 3. Competitive strategy: Three general corporate strategies for achieving above average performance are.- COST LEADERSHIP – being the lowest cost producer while offering the products comparable to those of other companies, so that products can be priced at or near the industry average; DIFFERENTIATION – offering unique products or services along some dimensions that are valued by buyers so that the company can sell their products at a premium; FOCUS – seeking competitive advantage in a segment of the industry based on cost leadership or differentiation FORECAST Economic: Top down forecasting approach : moving from the international and national macroeconomic forecasts to industry forecasts and then to individual company and asset forecast Bottom- up approach to forectasing : Aggregate individual company forecasts, into industry forecasts and finally into macroeconomic forecasts. Financial: integrate analysis of industry prospects and competitive and corporate strategy with financial statement analysis to formulate specific numerical forecasts of items such as sales, earnings. LOOK for quality of earnings SIGNS

17 ANALISIS DE LA INDUSTRIA
UNDERSTAND BUSINESS: Understanding a company’s economic and industry context and management’s strategic responses are the first tasks in understanding the company. Because similar economic and technological factors affect all companies in an industry, industry knowledge helps analysts understand the basic characteristics of the markets served by a company and the economics of the company. An analyst conducting an industry analysis must also judge management’s strategic choices to better understand a company’s prospects for success in competition with other companies in the industry or industries in which that companies operate. PORTER may lead analysts to focus on the following questions: How attractive are the industries in which the company operates, in terms of prospects of profitability? We should try to understand the industry structure – underlying economic and technical characteristics – and the trends affecting that structure. What is the company’s relative competitive position within its industry Look at the level and trend of the company’s market share in the market in which it operates 3. Competitive strategy: Three general corporate strategies for achieving above average performance are.- COST LEADERSHIP – being the lowest cost producer while offering the products comparable to those of other companies, so that products can be priced at or near the industry average; DIFFERENTIATION – offering unique products or services along some dimensions that are valued by buyers so that the company can sell their products at a premium; FOCUS – seeking competitive advantage in a segment of the industry based on cost leadership or differentiation FORECAST Economic: Top down forecasting approach : moving from the international and national macroeconomic forecasts to industry forecasts and then to individual company and asset forecast Bottom- up approach to forectasing : Aggregate individual company forecasts, into industry forecasts and finally into macroeconomic forecasts. Financial: integrate analysis of industry prospects and competitive and corporate strategy with financial statement analysis to formulate specific numerical forecasts of items such as sales, earnings. LOOK for quality of earnings SIGNS

18 ANALISIS DE LA INDUSTRIA
UNDERSTAND BUSINESS: Understanding a company’s economic and industry context and management’s strategic responses are the first tasks in understanding the company. Because similar economic and technological factors affect all companies in an industry, industry knowledge helps analysts understand the basic characteristics of the markets served by a company and the economics of the company. An analyst conducting an industry analysis must also judge management’s strategic choices to better understand a company’s prospects for success in competition with other companies in the industry or industries in which that companies operate. PORTER may lead analysts to focus on the following questions: How attractive are the industries in which the company operates, in terms of prospects of profitability? We should try to understand the industry structure – underlying economic and technical characteristics – and the trends affecting that structure. What is the company’s relative competitive position within its industry Look at the level and trend of the company’s market share in the market in which it operates 3. Competitive strategy: Three general corporate strategies for achieving above average performance are.- COST LEADERSHIP – being the lowest cost producer while offering the products comparable to those of other companies, so that products can be priced at or near the industry average; DIFFERENTIATION – offering unique products or services along some dimensions that are valued by buyers so that the company can sell their products at a premium; FOCUS – seeking competitive advantage in a segment of the industry based on cost leadership or differentiation FORECAST Economic: Top down forecasting approach : moving from the international and national macroeconomic forecasts to industry forecasts and then to individual company and asset forecast Bottom- up approach to forectasing : Aggregate individual company forecasts, into industry forecasts and finally into macroeconomic forecasts. Financial: integrate analysis of industry prospects and competitive and corporate strategy with financial statement analysis to formulate specific numerical forecasts of items such as sales, earnings. LOOK for quality of earnings SIGNS

19 ANALISIS DE LA INDUSTRIA
UNDERSTAND BUSINESS: Understanding a company’s economic and industry context and management’s strategic responses are the first tasks in understanding the company. Because similar economic and technological factors affect all companies in an industry, industry knowledge helps analysts understand the basic characteristics of the markets served by a company and the economics of the company. An analyst conducting an industry analysis must also judge management’s strategic choices to better understand a company’s prospects for success in competition with other companies in the industry or industries in which that companies operate. PORTER may lead analysts to focus on the following questions: How attractive are the industries in which the company operates, in terms of prospects of profitability? We should try to understand the industry structure – underlying economic and technical characteristics – and the trends affecting that structure. What is the company’s relative competitive position within its industry Look at the level and trend of the company’s market share in the market in which it operates 3. Competitive strategy: Three general corporate strategies for achieving above average performance are.- COST LEADERSHIP – being the lowest cost producer while offering the products comparable to those of other companies, so that products can be priced at or near the industry average; DIFFERENTIATION – offering unique products or services along some dimensions that are valued by buyers so that the company can sell their products at a premium; FOCUS – seeking competitive advantage in a segment of the industry based on cost leadership or differentiation FORECAST Economic: Top down forecasting approach : moving from the international and national macroeconomic forecasts to industry forecasts and then to individual company and asset forecast Bottom- up approach to forectasing : Aggregate individual company forecasts, into industry forecasts and finally into macroeconomic forecasts. Financial: integrate analysis of industry prospects and competitive and corporate strategy with financial statement analysis to formulate specific numerical forecasts of items such as sales, earnings. LOOK for quality of earnings SIGNS

20 ANALISIS DE LA INDUSTRIA
UNDERSTAND BUSINESS: Understanding a company’s economic and industry context and management’s strategic responses are the first tasks in understanding the company. Because similar economic and technological factors affect all companies in an industry, industry knowledge helps analysts understand the basic characteristics of the markets served by a company and the economics of the company. An analyst conducting an industry analysis must also judge management’s strategic choices to better understand a company’s prospects for success in competition with other companies in the industry or industries in which that companies operate. PORTER may lead analysts to focus on the following questions: How attractive are the industries in which the company operates, in terms of prospects of profitability? We should try to understand the industry structure – underlying economic and technical characteristics – and the trends affecting that structure. What is the company’s relative competitive position within its industry Look at the level and trend of the company’s market share in the market in which it operates 3. Competitive strategy: Three general corporate strategies for achieving above average performance are.- COST LEADERSHIP – being the lowest cost producer while offering the products comparable to those of other companies, so that products can be priced at or near the industry average; DIFFERENTIATION – offering unique products or services along some dimensions that are valued by buyers so that the company can sell their products at a premium; FOCUS – seeking competitive advantage in a segment of the industry based on cost leadership or differentiation FORECAST Economic: Top down forecasting approach : moving from the international and national macroeconomic forecasts to industry forecasts and then to individual company and asset forecast Bottom- up approach to forectasing : Aggregate individual company forecasts, into industry forecasts and finally into macroeconomic forecasts. Financial: integrate analysis of industry prospects and competitive and corporate strategy with financial statement analysis to formulate specific numerical forecasts of items such as sales, earnings. LOOK for quality of earnings SIGNS

21 3.a foco en diferenciación
ESTRATEGIA CORPORATIVA Ventaja Competitiva Estrategias corporativas Objetivo amplio Diferenciación 1.Liderazgo en costos 2.Diferenciación Bajo costo Alcance competitivo 3.a foco en costo 3.a foco en diferenciación Objetivo acotado UNDERSTAND BUSINESS: Competitive strategy: Three general corporate strategies for achieving above average performance are.- COST LEADERSHIP – being the lowest cost producer while offering the products comparable to those of other companies, so that products can be priced at or near the industry average; DIFFERENTIATION – offering unique products or services along some dimensions that are valued by buyers so that the company can sell their products at a premium; FOCUS – seeking competitive advantage in a segment of the industry based on cost leadership or differentiation Source:Michael Porter

22 KLABIN Estrategia

23 KLABIN Estrategia

24 KLABIN Productos

25 KLABIN Productos

26 KLABIN Productos

27 KLABIN Productos

28 KLABIN Estrategia

29 KLABIN Estrategia

30 Breve descripción empresa
KLABIN Breve descripción empresa

31 Breve descripción empresa
KLABIN Breve descripción empresa

32 Breve descripción empresa PN
KLABIN Breve descripción empresa PN

33 Breve descripción empresa ON
KLABIN Breve descripción empresa ON

34 KLABIN La compañia

35 KLABIN Estados Financieros

36 KLABIN Estados Financieros

37 KLABIN Perfil de la Deuda

38 KLABIN Ventas

39 KLABIN Ventas

40 KLABIN Exportaciones

41 KLABIN Mercado Doméstico

42 KLABIN Exportaciones

43 KLABIN Exportaciones

44 Resultados y generación de caja
KLABIN Resultados y generación de caja

45 KLABIN Capex y Deuda Neta

46 KLABIN “Outlook 2005”

47 Estructura Accionaria
KLABIN Estructura Accionaria

48 Desempeño bursátil PN/ON
KLABIN Desempeño bursátil PN/ON

49 KLABIN Desempeño bursátil

50 KLABIN Desempeño bursátil

51 KLABIN Desempeño bursátil

52 Volatilidad del acción
KLABIN Volatilidad del acción

53 Metodologías para Valorizar instrumentos de renta variable
Flujo de caja descontado Metodologías de valorización basadas en el valor presente de los flujos esperados requiere: Elección del modelo Pronóstico flujos de caja Elección metodología para determinar la tasa de descuento Estimación de tasa de descuento Múltiplos

54 Modelo de descuento de los dividendos (DDM)
RENTA VARIABLE Modelo de descuento de los dividendos (DDM) Descontar flujo de dividendos esperados V o = D1/(1+r)1 + D2/(1+r)2 + D3/(1+r)3 + Dn/(1+r)n + Pn/(1+r)n

55 Modelo descuento de dividendos de Gordon
RENTA VARIABLE Modelo descuento de dividendos de Gordon Descontar flujo de dividendos esperados, asumiendo crecimiento de los dividendos a tasa constante: V o = D0 (1+g)/(r-g) = D1/(r-g) donde r >g Mejor metodología de valorización cuando: Compañía está pagando dividendos y crecimiento es estable Política de dividendos es consistente con rentabilidad de la compañía No existe control por parte del inversionista Limitaciones: Extrema sensibilidad a tasa de crecimiento. A medida que tasa de crecimiento se acerca a tasa de descuento el valor de la acción llega a infinito.

56 Modelo descuento de dividendos de Gordon
KLABIN Modelo descuento de dividendos de Gordon

57 Modelo descuento de dividendos 2 etapas
RENTA VARIABLE Modelo descuento de dividendos 2 etapas DDM de 2 etapas: ocupa una tasa de crecimento extraordinaria (g) durante un período de tiempo, seguido por crecimiento más estable a perpetuidad. V o = VP Dividendos en fase extraordinaria + VP Precio terminal V o = Suma Div t /(1+r)t + Pn/(1+r)n donde; Pn = Div n+1 /(rn-gn) r =Tasa de retorno exigida en período de alto crecimiento Pn = Precio al final del año n g = tasa de crecimiento extraordinario por n años gn = tasa de crecimiento despues de año n rn = tasa de descuento para período “steady state” Mejor metodología de valorización cuando: Compañías que están en períodos de alto crecimiento y esperan mantenerlo por un período de tiempo determinado, para después crecer a tasas más bajas Limitaciones: Complicado determinar período de tiempo de alto crecimiento

58 Modelos de Flujo de caja descontados
RENTA VARIABLE Modelos de Flujo de caja descontados Valorizar activos y deducir valor de la deuda + EBITDA - Impuestos = Flujo de Caja Bruto de los activos - Inversiones - Capital de trabajo = Flujo de Caja Libre de los activos VP Activos - VP Deuda - Interes Minoritario = VP Patrimonio Descontar a tasa de los activos Flujo de caja libre de los activos, llegando al valor económico del activo. Luego deducir el valor económico de la deuda , el interés minoritario, lo que permite determinar el valor económico del patrimonio.

59 Modelos de Flujo de caja descontados
RENTA VARIABLE Modelos de Flujo de caja descontados

60 RENTA VARIABLE Valor Terminal
P/U, EV/Ebitda, B/L, crecimiento a perpetuidad

61 RENTA VARIABLE Valor Terminal
P/U, EV/Ebitda, B/L, crecimiento a perpetuidad

62 Modelos de Flujo de caja descontados
RENTA VARIABLE Modelos de Flujo de caja descontados Valorizar directamente el patrimonio accionario de una compañía + R Operacional - Gastos Financieros - Otros gastos no operacionales - Impuestos = Utilidad Neta + Depreciación = Flujo de caja Bruto de los accionistas - Inversiones - Capital de Trabajo - Cambio en deuda = Flujo de caja libre para los accionistas Descontar a tasa que exigen los accionistas Flujo de caja libre para los accionistas, llegando al valor económico del patrimonio

63 Modelos de Flujo de caja descontados
RENTA VARIABLE Modelos de Flujo de caja descontados Mejor metodología de valorización cuando: Compañía no está pagando dividendos La empresa paga dividendos pero significativamente exceden o están por debajo respecto de su generación de caja El flujo de caja están alineado (guarda relación) con la rentabilidad de la compañía en un horizonte de tiempo prudente Existe control por parte del inversionista

64 RENTA VARIABLE Precio/Utilidad Múltiplos Bolsa/Libro
Capitalización Bursátil /Ventas; EV/Ventas EV/Ebitda; EV/Flujo de caja libre

65 RENTA VARIABLE Múltiplos Precio/Utilidad = P/U (+)
Utilidades son factor clave para determinar valor de una acción Medida usada ampliamente por el mercado Empíricamente se ha encontrado un vínculo entre niveles de P/U y retornos en la Bolsa ( - ) UPS<0 UPS son volátiles UPS sujeta a discreción por parte del manegement “Trailing” Futura P/U - 4 trim. + 4 trim Al usar el indicador P/U debe fijarse en: componentes transitorio, no recurrentes de utilidad ciclicalidad criterios contables dilución UPA

66 RENTA VARIABLE Múltiplos
Capitalización Bursatil/Valor Libro del Patrimonio= B/L Mide creación o destrucción de valor en función de lo invertido por los accionistas (+) Mejor medida cuando UPA <0 B/L es un indicador más estable que P/U Mejor para valorar empresas con activos líquidos como Bancos, cías de seguros, financieras ( - ) No se toma en cuenta capital humando de la empresa Queda igualemnte sujeta a discrecionalidda contable Inflación y antigüedad de activos lleva a distorsiones

67 RENTA VARIABLE Múltiplos Capitalización Bursatil/Ventas= B/V (+)
Menor posibilidad de manipulación contable Ventas más estables, miniza efecto del ciclo Ventas > 0 ; UPA< 0 ( - ) No considera rentabilidad de la empresa. Puede que empresa tenga ventas muy altas y creciendo pero que no sea rentable P/V no toma en cuenta estructura de costos

68 RENTA VARIABLE Múltiplos EV/Ebitda
Capitalización Bursátil/Flujo de caja EV/Flujo de caja libre (+) Menor posibilidad de manipulación contable Indicadores más estables

69 RENTA VARIABLE Múltiplos

70 KLABIN Múltiplos

71 Métodos de determinación tasa de descuento
Teoría financiera moderna CAPM APT Metodologías Convencionales Retorno renta fija + premio x riesgo Retorno sobre dividendos + g (crecimiento sobre dividendos) Métodos de determinación tasa de descuento

72 TASA DE DESCUENTO CAPM CAPM: E(ri) = rf + Bi [E(rm)-rf]
El retorno esperado de un activo, es la tasa libre de riesgo más un premio por riesgo igual a su beta multiplicado por el premio por riesgo de mercado Si usamos el CAPM necesitamos determinar : Proxy para la tasa libre de riesgo (coordinada con el cálculo del premio por riesgo de mercado ERP) Premio por riesgo (ERP)? (aproximación histórica / expectativas) Common stock has no maturity, hence is a long duration asset. As it is logical to match the duration of the risk free measure to the duration of of the asset being valued, we could use current yield to maturity on a liquid long term government bond as the risk free rate. 20 years or 10 years. We need to address the estimation of the equity risk premium: To be consistent the ERP should be relative to a long term government bond yield. So we define the equity risk premium as the expected return on a broad equity index in excess of long term government bond yield to maturity

73 Premio por riesgo de mercado (ERP)
TASA DE DESCUENTO Aproximación histórica (aritmética o geométrica ?) Premio por riesgo de mercado (ERP) In taking the historical approach, we face a choice between using the arithmetic mean (average one year rates) return and using the geometric mean return (compound rate of growth of the index over the study period). Arithmetic mean measures average one period returns; the geometric mean more accurately measures multi-period growth. The dilemma is that CAPM is a single period model, suggesting the use of arithmetic mean; but common stock investment often has a long time horizon, and valuations involves discounting cash flows over many periods, suggesting the use of the geometric mean. Estimates of the risk premium using geometric mean are smaller than estimates using the arithmetic mean.

74 TASA DE DESCUENTO Estimación de Beta

75 TASA DE DESCUENTO Estimación de Beta

76 TASA DE DESCUENTO APT Modelos de APT asume que retorno esperado de un activo depende de varios factores APT: E(ri) = rf + (factor)1 + (factor)2 +….+(factor)k; Distintas especificaciones, las más comunes son: Atributos específicos a la empresa: Tamaño B/L Factores Macroeconómicos Riesgo inflacionario Ciclo económico The factor sensitivity is the asset’s sensitivity to a particular factor. The factor risk premium is the factor’s expected return in excess of the risk free rate.

77 TASA DE DESCUENTO Metodologías convencionales
Metodo de YTM renta fija + premio Costo capital accionario = YTM de la deuda de largo plazo de la empresa + premio por riesgo Bond plus risk premium method provides a quick estimate of the cost of equity

78 TASA DE DESCUENTO Metodologías convencionales
Bond plus risk premium method provides a quick estimate of the cost of equity

79 TASA DE DESCUENTO Metodologías convencionales
Bond plus risk premium method provides a quick estimate of the cost of equity

80 TASA DE DESCUENTO Metodologías convencionales
Metodo de YTM renta fija + premio Re= 8% + 5% = 13% Bond plus risk premium method provides a quick estimate of the cost of equity