ELECTORAL PREFERENCES MEXICO 2006 Nobody’s Unpredictable NATIONAL SURVEYS CONDUCTED BY IPSOS-BIMSA FROM SEPTEMBER 2003-NOVEMBER 2005.

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Transcripción de la presentación:

ELECTORAL PREFERENCES MEXICO 2006 Nobody’s Unpredictable NATIONAL SURVEYS CONDUCTED BY IPSOS-BIMSA FROM SEPTEMBER 2003-NOVEMBER 2005

2 2 POLL OF POLLS October-November 2006

3 3 VOTE CHOICE 2006 KEY VARIABLES VOTE CHOICE 2006

CANDIDATES’ POPULARITY

5 5 NAME RECOGNITION AMLO, ROBERTO MADRAZO & FELIPE CALDERÓN

6 6 IMAGE OF FELIPE CALDERÓN Do you have a positive or negative opinion about FELIPE CALDERÓN?. (%) POSITIVE OPINIONS DK/NA ARE NOT REPORTED

7 7 IMAGE OF ROBERTO MADRAZO Do you have a positive or negative opinion about ROBERTO MADRAZO? (%) DK/NA ARE NOT REPORTED

8 8 IMAGE OF ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR Do you have a positive or negative opinion about ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR? (%) DK/NA ARE NOT REPORTED

PARTISANSHIP

10 PARTY IDENTIFICATION (%)

11 NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC ELECTORAL CHOICE BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION (% NOVEMBER 2005) FELIPE CALDERÓN ROBERTO MADRAZO ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR PANISTASPRIÍSTASPERREDISTASINDEPENDIENTES Non response and support for others are not shown

12 PARTISAN COHESION IN NOV FELIPE CALDERÓN IS PAN`S CANDIDATE.

13 ELECTORAL SCENARIO SCENARIO: ALL PARTIES WITH THE SAME LEVEL OF PARTY COHESION

INDEPENDENTS

15 PARTY IDENTIFICATION

16 INDEPENDENTS IN NOV FELIPE CALDERÓN IS PAN’S CANDIDATE ELECTORAL PREFERENCES OF INDEPENDENTS DK/NA and support for others are not shown VIDEOSCANDALS IMPEACHMENT PROCESS

PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

18 NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC FELIPE CALDERÓN ROBERTO MADRAZO ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR APPROVE A LOT SOMEWHAT APPROVE NEUTRAL SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE DISAPPROVE A LOT PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL AND PARTISAN CHOICE

19 PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC DK/NA ARE NOT SHOWN

STATE OF THE ECONOMY

21 NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC ECONOMY HAS IMPROVEDSTAYS THE SAMEECONOMY HAS WORSENED NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC FELIPE CALDERÓN ROBERTO MADRAZO ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR STATE OF THE ECONOMY IN COMPARISON TO ONE YEAR AGO AND PARTISAN CHOICE

22 STATE OF THE ECONOMY IN COMPARISON TO ONE YEAR AGO NO SE MUESTRA EL PORCENTAJE DE NS/NC DK/NA ARE NOT SHOWN

23 PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL POR PARTIDO CONCLUSIONS

24 POPULARITY ?X. PARTISANSHIP..X INDEPENDENTS X?X?X. PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL.XX STATE OF THE ECONOMY ??? PERSPECTIVAS DE LOS CANDIDATOS

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