Information Flows and Policy Use of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources Management Under Climatic Uncertainty in Western North America

Research Team University of Arizona (U.S.)  R. G. Varady (PI) – Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy  C. A. Scott (Deputy PI) – Udall Center; Dept. of Geography  A. Browning-Aiken – Udall Center  G. Garfin – Institute for the Study of Planet Earth (ISPE)  B. Morehouse – ISPE  M. Wilder – Center for Latin American Studies; Dept. of Geography El Colegio de Sonora (México)  N. Pineda Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua - IMTA (México)  M. Montero National Center for Atmospheric Research (U.S.)  D. Gochis National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (U.S.)  A. Ray Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) – CNR II-2048 Project  G. de Raga (PI) – UNAM  L. Farfan, CICESE

Objectives Improve flow of climate diagnostics for policy adoption Assess vulnerability to climate & water variability  Urban  Rural Conduct outreach & dissemination to managers

Linkages with CRNII-2048 Two main societal impacts of cyclones  loss of life & property  water resources (rainfall) Water surplus or scarcity mediate climate variability impacts for decision-making Working hypotheses  Despite flooding & mudslides, cyclone rainfall generates positive benefits inland over longer timeframes (months to seasons)  Cyclone wind & storm-surge damages spatially concentrated along coast temporally limited to days & weeks.

Cyclone Henriette - press notes Comité de Protección Civil Reunido de Manera Permanente Sept. 5, CIERRAN PUERTO YAVAROS Sept. 6, Ejército Mexicano aplica Plan de Emergencia Gobernador Solicita Declaración de Desastre 2 MUERTOS, 13 MIL DAMNIFICADOS PRI y PAN Recopilarán Víveres y PRD Solicitará Intervención de Autoridades

Rainfall benefit Beneficia el paso del huracán  Sofía Zamora, indígena mayo de 82 años, ha vivido varios huracanes  “la lluvia provocará inicio de siembras”  “trajo poco viento, pero sí mucha agua, que suele ser muy escasa” Presas rebasan máximo nivel  372 millones de metros cúbicos de agua en tan sólo 24 horas  659 millones de metros cúbicos totales  se consolida próximo ciclo agrícola sin restricciones

Binational climate diagnostic tool

Project implementation Quarter ending: Principal Milestones Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Project inception meeting and coordination29-Oct Task A:  Climate outlook (version 1) initial distribution & testing with stakeholders 11-Mar  Version 2 9-Jun  Version 3 16-Sep  Version 4 12-Dec  Version 5 10-Mar Task B principal milestones:  Survey of climate information management in 4 cities 15-Mar  Characterization of civil protection & past drought and flood emergencies 15-Sep  Water supply, demand and efficiency assessment 15-Mar  4-city comparative assessment of vulnerabilities 15-Jun Task C principal milestones:  Characterization of principal agricultural production risk factors 15-Mar  Ranking of socio-economic and gender vulnerabilities in agriculture 15-Jun  Assessment of groundwater vs. surface water irrigation 15-Dec  Characterization of combined climatic & economic risk in agriculture 15-Mar  Assessment of agriculture-urban water transfers and reuse 15-Jun Task D principal milestones:  Regional Climate Forum for Northwest Mexico & Southwest U.S. 10-Apr  1st Interactive Workshop in Hermosillo, mid-June Jun  2nd Interactive Workshop in Mexico City by mid-March Mar Synthesis15-Aug