E NERGÍA EN EL M UNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera Foro de la Ingeniería – 23 de Julio de 2008

1. ENERGY IN THE WORLD

W ORLD P RIMARY E NERGY D EMAND BY S ECTOR Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2007

W ORLD P RIMARY E NERGY C ONSUMPTION 2007 Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008

E NERGY G ROWTH annual growth Oil 2.0 % Natural Gas 3.1 % Coal 5.7 % Nuclear 0.4 % Hydro 3.1 % TOTAL3.3% Last 5 years:

2. O IL

W ORLD O IL P RICES A ND P RODUCTION Source: Oil Market Report IEA - Platts 90s May-08 [USD/bbl] WTI [MMbbl/d] % 2007 OPEC % FSU % Rest of the World % TOTAL %

U PSTREAM I NVESTMENTS [B USD] Rest of the World China

A THABASCA O IL S ANDS & O RINOCO F AJA THE OIL FACTORY Process: Mining: deforestation, elimination of non-bitumen soil, mining, transport to the mill (3 tonnes of mineral are needed for every barrel produced) crushing and filtering, “primary refining” to obtain bitumen, transport of the by-products to the place of origin, transport of the bitumen mixed with a solvent to an ad hoc refinery which transforms the bitumen into synthetic oil, then sold to normal refineries around the world. Steam Injection: drilling a dual well with two horizontal conduits, sourcing water and then natural gas to produce steam and inject it into the well through one of the horizontal conduits, producing hot bitumen through the other conduit and repeating the double refinery process in the same way as in the Mining process. Investment: 15 USD billion to produce bbl/d

W ORLD P EAK O IL Source: The Future of Oil, Maurice Dusseault

B IO- F UELS Ex-Refinery Cost [USD/liter]Bio-FuelB-F equivalent OilOil Bio-diesel – soybean oil Bio-ethanol – corn Bio-ethanol – sugar ALL seed oil production => 7% of diesel oil demand ALL sugar and corn production => 20% of gasoline demand May-08

W ORLD O IL D EMAND Source: Oil Market Report IEA - Platts 90s [USD/bbl] WTI [MMbbl/d] WORLD DEMAND “The problem with oil is that demand is too young and supply is too old”. Matthew Simmons

R ETAIL P RICES Source: EIA-DOE, ANP, Argentine Energy Secretariat and own research – May-08 GASOLINEDIESEL OIL [USD/liter] US Germany China India Brazil Argentina

W ORLD P RIMARY E NERGY C ONSUMPTION 2007 Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008

E LECTRICITY WTI= 125 U$S/bbl Source: Own research INVESTMENT FUEL COSTO&MTOTAL [USD/kW][USD/MWh][USD/unit] [USD/MWh][USD/MWh][USD/MWh] Natural Gas -CC USD/MMbtu Coal -ST2, USD/ tn Fuel Oil – ST1, USD/tn Diesel Oil – CC USD/tn Nuclear3, USD/kg Hydro3, Wind2, Solar6,

E LECTRICITY Source: Own research Paper MMM 20071Q-2008[USD/MWh] Natural Gas -CC72102 Coal -ST 6996 Fuel Oil – ST Diesel Oil – CC Nuclear 6684 Hydro Wind Solar THRESHOLD80100 Investment + Fuel Cost + O&M

3. NATURAL GAS

N ATURAL G AS P RICES Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008 given in Natural Gas Week - Bloomberg 90s May-08 [USD/MMbtu] HENRY HUB

N ATURAL G AS R ESERVES AND P RODUCTION Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008 PRODUCTIONRESERVESR/P [TCF][TCF][years] Russia21.51, US Iran Qatar Others56.92, TOTAL103.86,26360

N ATURAL G AS P RODUCTION Source: BP Statistical Review of World [TCF] Russia US Iran Qatar Others TOTAL Annual average growth %

N ATURAL G AS P ROFILE Source: BP Statistical Review of World [TCF] Own consumption (via gas pipeline) % Exports via gas pipeline % Exports via LNG 8.0 8% TOTAL %

N ATURAL G AS R ESERVES North America South & Central America Europe & Eurasia Middle East Asia Pacific Africa 273 TCF 515 TCF 511 TCF 281 TCF 2,098 TCF 2,585 TCF Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008

L NG I NVESTMENTS MM USDUSD/MMbtu Liquefaction2, Transport* (ships)600 – 1, Regasification TOTAL3,600 – 4, – 4.0 Depending on distance Sep-07

4. COAL

C OAL R ESERVES AND P RODUCTION Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008 PRODUCTIONRESERVESR/P [MMtn][MMtn][years] China2,537114, US1,039242, India , Australia , Russia , South Africa , Others1,365152, TOTAL6,396847, “Coal is the best of fuels, coal is the worst of fuels” Kenneth Deffeyes

C OAL vs. N ATURAL G AS G ENERATION C OSTS NATURAL GASCOALCOAL CCSTIGCC Investment [USD/kW]8002,000 3,000 Fuel Cost12 USD/MMbtu140 USD/tn 140 USD/tn Generation Cost [USD/MWh] Emissions [CO2 tn/MWh] Source: Own Research – EIA-DOE

E MISSIONS Source: EIA-DOE CO2 tn/MWh SOURCE Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear - Wind - Hydro-

5. NUCLEAR

U RANIUM R ESOURCES AND P RODUCTION Source: World Nuclear Association PRODUCTIONRESOURCES [TU/year][TU] Canada 9, ,000 Australia 7,5931,143,000 Kazakhstan 5, ,000 Niger 3, ,000 Russia 3, ,000 Others10,0871,943,000 TOTAL 39,6554,743,000 R/P [years]120

U RANIUM P RICES Source: Trade Tech – Mar-08 [USD/kg] Price U3O

N UCLEAR R EACTORS Source: World Nuclear Association REACTORS Mar-08GENERATION 07 NoCAPACITY [MWe][billion kWh] US104 99, France 59 63, Japan 55 47, Russia 31 21, Germany 17 20, China 11 8, Others162111, TOTAL439371,9892,608 UTILIZATION FACTOR80%

W IND P OWER Source: Global Wind Energy Council [MW] Germany20,62222,247 Spain11,61515,145 US11,60316,818 India6,2708,000 Denmark 3,1363,125 China2,6046,050 Others 18,38322,738 TOTAL 74,23394,123

6. ARGENTINA

E NERGY C ONSUMPTION 2007 Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat - BP Statistical Review of World 2008 ARGENTINA WORLD

A RGENTINE E NERGY C ONSUMPTION Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat MMToe

E LECTRICITY G ENERATION 2007 Source: Cammesa- EIA DOE – IEA – World Nuclear Association ARGENTINA WORLD

A RGENTINE E LECTRICITY C ONSUMPTION Source: Cammesa GWh 86,01581,34886,44293,28698,160104,627108,482

A RGENTINE O IL P RODUCTION & C ONSUMPTION Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat

A RGENTINE N ATURAL G AS P RODUCTION & C ONSUMPTION Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat – IAPG - Enargas

7. CONCLUSIONES Energía en el mundo La era de la escasez MMM- Septiembre 07

C ONCLUSIONES Preámbulo “Se avecinan tiempos de escasez y de precios cada vez más altos. Nuestro estilo de vida está cambiando y va a seguir cambiando. Será un cambio ordenado si los responsables en el orden mundial reaccionan a tiempo. Será un cambio caótico si, como hasta ahora, los hechos llevan la delantera y las decisiones se toman cuando ya es demasiado tarde.” La Tecnología “Muchos analistas confían en que los proyectos de investigación y desarrollo en curso aportarán nuevas y maravillosas fuentes que solucionen nuestros problemas energéticos y, también, ambientales. “El ser humano tiene una enorme creatividad, pronto surgirá la tecnología adecuada”, escuchamos con frecuencia. Mi opinión es que, posiblemente, habrá novedades, pero nada nos evitará entrar de lleno en la crisis que se avecina.”

C ONCLUSIONES P x Q. Oferta y Demanda “En la ecuación energética de P, precio, y Q, cantidad, ambas tan importantes para nuestra vida en general, la única variable que debería interesarle a partir de ahora a los países y a las sociedades en general es “asegurar Q”. A cualquier precio, porque la energía más cara es la que no se tiene.” ¿Quién se hace cargo? “Desde el tablero de las decisiones energéticas, los tiempos se cuentan en lustros o décadas. Cuando llega el dolor es tarde porque ya no hay tratamiento posible. Se requieren verdaderos estadistas a escala mundial para corregir el rumbo a tiempo, principalmente porque ninguna de las soluciones posibles tiene “aceptación pública” inmediata.”

E NERGÍA EN EL M UNDO LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ Marcelo Martínez Mosquera Foro de la Ingeniería – 23 de Julio de 2008