EHESS/ Universidad de Guadalajara ¿Una crisis para América Latina? ¿O una crisis para cada variedad de capitalismo? Ilan Bizberg Seminario BRICS EHESS/ Universidad de Guadalajara Chapala 6 y 7 de Junio 2017

1. Macroeconomic Variables

Fuente: Banco Mundial

Fuente: OIT

Fuente: OIT

2. Social Policies

Fuente: OIT. [No hay datos para Bolivia]

Fuente: OIT

3. Social Consequences

Source: Marco Stampini, Marcos Robre, Mayra Sáenz, Pablo Ibarrarán, Nadin Medellín, "Pobreza, vulnerabilidad y la clase media en América Latina", Documento de trabajo del BID no. 591, IDB, May 2015.

Source: Marco Stampini, Marcos Robre, Mayra Sáenz, Pablo Ibarrarán, Nadin Medellín, "Pobreza, vulnerabilidad y la clase media en América Latina", Documento de trabajo del BID no. 591, IDB, May 2015.

Fuente: Banco Mundial

Participación salarial respecto al PIB 1950-2010 Fuente: Alarco Tosoni, Germán, Participación salarial y crecimiento económico en América Latina, 1950-2010, Revista Cepal, no. 113, 2014.

4. Varieties of Capitalism, formalisation.

State Profits Salaries Market Diversity of capitalisms Rentier/ liberal Rentier/redistributve Profits Social-developmentism Salaries International subcontracting Market

State Profits Wages Diversity of capitalisms International subcontracting Rentier/distributive Profits Wages Social-developmentism

Dominant bloc and type of Democracy State Dominant bloc and type of Democracy 3.Rentier Distributive 1- International out-sourcing 2.Rentier Liberal profits wages 4. Socio-developmentism Movementist/ participatory Democracy Partidocracy Oligarchic/oligopolistic regime Strong Civil society.

Dominant Bloc and Type of Democracy International outsourcing Socio-developmentist Oligarchic Regime: State, multinationals, large national entrepreneurs nationaux, financial capital. State arbitration between oligarchies and civil society: Etat, classes moyennes, syndicats, en compromis avec les agro exportateurs et capitalim financier. Partitocracy: Institutionalized Party system; weak representativity and weak civil society. Participatory Democracy: Institutionalized Party system; strong representativity; strong civil society

4. Two crises for two different types of capitalism

Sequence of the Brazilian crisis Price reduction of commodities Reduction of the ressources of the rent Lowering of the interest rates/restriction to capital movement Crisis of the wage/profit compromise Loss of support social bases Economic crisis Deceleration of the world economy Loss of support financial interests Austerity measures Breaking up of the political coalition Lava Jato

Diagram1: The Mexican Model: interna tional outsourcing State Diagram1: The Mexican Model: interna tional outsourcing All kinds of incentives Deregulation or regulation favorable To the firms. Oligopolies, Monopolies. Firm Market Control of the State. Low pressure of unions, etc. Low negotiation, low salaries, low qualification. Informality, flexibility, weak sociaol Protection/high commodification Unions

Sequence of the Mexican “rampant” crisis External mercantilist/protectionist measures Reduction of the competitive advantages of the model Deceleration of the private investments Lower growth Increase of un-emlployment and subemployement ¿Open Crisis? Insecurity Low price of oil exports Lower State ressources Return of migrants