BRAZIL Climate Change Regional Modeling: Model Eta/CPTEC Asunción, agosto 2006 Haroldo Machado Filho

CC National Programme Initial strategy: emphasizing studies for the preparation of the Brazilian Inventory of Net Anthropogenic Emissions of Greenhouse Gases. 2000: inclusion of the climate change issue in the Governments multi-year plan – preliminary studies on CC vulnerability, emphasizing health, agriculture and coral bleaching. First National Communication: some case studies of climate change impacts were identified and presented as examples of areas that would require further research.

New Challenges Second National Communication: - Downscaling of global circulation models for Brazil will be developed. - Studies on vulnerability and adaptation will be undertaken, with a focus on the health sector; energy sector; water resources, floods, and desertification; agriculture, pasture and livestock sector; coastal zone management; and aquatic biodiversity Continental dimension, with many different regions and biomes – need of a climate change model with an adequate spatial resolution.

Global Modeling Climate change scenarios for the 21st century were derived from various global climate models used by the IPCC. The fact that global climate models use different physical representations of processes, with a relatively low resolution grid, introduces a certain degree of uncertainty in future climate change scenarios. Eg.: Amazon Watershed - some models estimate climates with higher rainfall and others relatively drier climates

Downscalling Need of downscaling methods that can be applied to the climate change scenarios based on the global climate models. Objective: more detailed projections of climate, by states, watersheds, valleys or regions, with a higher spatial resolution than that provided by a global climate model. Crucial for the development of climate change impact assessment (e.g.: management and operation of water resources, on natural ecosystems, on agricultural activities, etc.). Fundamental importance to develop climate modeling capacity in Brazil, through analyses of global and regional climate models for current and future climate change scenarios.

Regional Modeling Who would be able to run a regional model in Brazil? - Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC) of the National Space Research Institute (INPE), under the Ministry of Science and Technology. Which model should be used? - ETA/CPTEC

Eta/CPTEC ETA model, used at National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in the United States, was configured to run over the South American continent, with a resolution of 80 km. This limited area model has 38 atmospheric layers and its domain includes part of the adjacent Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The model usually runs in weather prediction mode with a 6-hour forecast, and extending to 72 hours. It is currently run to make seasonal climate predictions, with horizontal resolutions of 80 and 40 km.

Eta/CPTEC (2) Preliminary study: the regional ETA model was used to produce predictions of one month in South America under dry and rainy conditions (for some extreme rainfall events, in an experimental mode). The ETA/CPTEC regional model proved capable of producing one-month climatic predictions for South America in a continuous run. The results were compared to predictions by the GCM in order to evaluate the positive contribution of regional runs. The regional predictions showed that the greater resolution could provide more details to the predictions, especially for the temperature fields near the surface. The magnitude of variables predicted were in general closer to the observations.

Eta/CPTEC (3) The results of these preliminary tests were encouraging. In the initial phase of the project Extended Range Simulations over South America the ETA/CPTEC model was for the first time integrated in the climatic mode, that is, run continuously for a greater period of time than that used to produce weather predictions (60 hours) over South America. The model has been evaluated in terms of stability and quality of predictions produced for an integration of the longer period, proving capable of reproducing the climatic conditions with good spatial resolution. Completion of a climatic run of ETA/CPTEC, of at least 10 years, to represent the climatology of this model, and thus to study and determine the abilities of the model and the predictability of the climate in different regions of the country and of South America, similar to the evaluations made with CPTECs global climate model.

Regional Modeling CPTECs climate modeling strategy includes global climate models and regional climate models nested in a global climate model (dynamic downscaling). For downscaling of global climate change scenarios to be developed at CPTEC, the regional model to be used is ETA/CPTEC, nested in version 3 of the Hadley Centers coupled global climate model (HadCM3H, a special version of HadGEM1 (or HadCM3) and ECHAM5 with a higher horizontal resolution). Spacial resolution of 40 km – regional future climate predictions ( ) and extreme scenarios A2 (high emission) and B2 (low emission) of GHG for South America.

CPTEC/INPE Equipped with supercomputers SX-4/8A and SX-6. These supercomputers are capable of processing up to 16 and 768 billion floating decimal point arithmetic operations per second, respectively. Enables CPTEC to provide reliable weather forecasts for the entire country and also for South America. It is also possible to run global and regional climate models to generate climatic scenarios for the 21st century.

CPTECs Computing System Computers are fed with information from: METEOSAT; GOES satellites; WMO data network; national networks under the responsibility of National Institute of Meteorology - INMET, under the Ministry of Agriculture; Air Space Control Departament - DEPV, under the Air Force Ministry; Navigation and Hydrography Department - DHN, under the Ministry of the Navy; state meteorology centers and other international centers. satellites SCD-1 and 2 - collect environmental data, also play an important role in collection the information necessary to INPEs meteorological research. - Observation network called meteorological and hydrological Data Collection Platforms - PCDs were implemented in 1996 throughout the country. The PCDs are operated jointly by CPTEC and ANEEL, and transmit meteorological and hydrological information in real time to a center operated by CPTEC, through SCD-1 and 2.

Modeling and the SNC Outcome 2.1: - downscaling methods for Brazil that can be applied to the climate change scenarios based on global climate models, in order to give more detailed projections of climate with a higher spatial resolution than that provided by a global climate model.

Modeling and the SNC Outputs: 1) analyze climate change scenarios for South America based on global climate change models from the IPCC- Data Distribution Center (IPCC-DDC) for different SRES scenarios (provided by the IPCC-DDC); 2) develop and improve the regional Eta/CPTEC model; 3) develop and analyze climate-change downscaled scenarios for Brazil, making use of the new super computer being installed at the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies – CPTEC; 4) enable the specialists of the CPTEC/INPE (National Institute for Space Research) to develop capacity for climate modeling on longer time scales, and to develop capacity building in V&A.

Financing Brazil and GEF GEF – under the SNC Regional or National project ? Participation of South American countries in the future results of the Eta/CPTEC model activities. Strenghtnening capacity – regional training

Regional modeling Invited Countries : »Argentina; »Bolivia; »Chile; »Colombia; »Ecuador; »Paraguay; »Perú; »Uruguay. »Venezuela (?).

Argentina Sent to: »Señor Lic. Hernán Carlino (Coordinador Unidad de Cambio Climático - Secretaria de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable, Ministerio de Salud y Ambiente) Experts: »Dr. Mario Nunez – CIMA (Centro de Investigación del Mar y Atmósfera) – Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA) »Dr. Carolina Vera – CIMA (Centro de Investigación del Mar y Atmósfera) – Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA) »Dr. Vicente Barros – CIMA (Centro de Investigación del Mar y Atmósfera) – Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA)

Bolivia Sent to : »Señor Oscar Paz Rada (Coordinador General del Programa Nacional de Cambios Climáticos - Viceministerio de Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente) Expert: »Ing. Carlos Diaz Escóbar (Director Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología) »Ing. Miguel Angel Ontiveros - Enlace PNCC (Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología – SENAMHI) »Ing. Gladis Tesoro Michel - Enlace PNCC (Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología – SENAMHI) »Ing. Magali García Cárdenas (Responsable del Plan Nacional de Adaptación – Programa Nacional de Cambios Climáticos)

Chile Sent to : »Señora Marcela Main (Comisión Nacional del Medio Ambiente (CONAMA) - Ministerio Secretaría General de Presidencia) Expert: »Dr. Maisa Rojas – Universidad de Chile.

Colombia Sent to: »A Señora María Andrea Albán Durán (Coordinadora de Asuntos Ambientales - Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores) Experts: »Maximiliano Henriquez Daza - Subdirector de Meteorología (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM)) »María Constanza Martínez - Profesional Especializado (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM)) »Franklin Ruiz Murcia - Investigador Científico (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM))

Ecuador Sent to: »Señor Julio Cornejo Vargas (Coordinador de la Unidad de Cambios Climáticos - Ministerio del Ambiente) Experts: »Dr. Juan Palácios – INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología y Hidrología) »Dr. Laureano Andrade – INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología y Hidrología) »Dr. Enrique Palacios – INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología y Hidrología) »Dr. Jose Luis Santos – CIIFEN (Centro de Investigaciones sobre el Fenómeno El Niño) »Dr. Remigio Galarraga – Escuela Nacional Politécnica en Quito

Paraguay Sent to: »Señora Lilian Portillo (Directora - Secretaría del Ambiente (SEAM)) Experts: »Dr. Ing. Julian Baez – DHN (Dirección de Hidrología y Meteorología). »Dr. Ing. Genaro Coronel – Universidad Nacional de Asunción.

Uruguay Sent to: »Señor Luis Santos (Coordinador Técnico de la Unidad de Cambio Climático - Ministerio de Vivienda, Ordenamiento Territorial y Medio Ambiente ) Experts: »Dr. Ing. Mario Bidegain – DNM (Dirección Nacional de Meteorología). »Dr. Rafael Terra – Universidad de la Republica.

CPTEC Main Researchers »Dr. Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE- Project Coordinator »Dr. Carlos A. Nobre, CPTEC/INPE. »Dra. Sin Chan Chou, CPTEC/INPE.

Financing Brazil and GEF GEF – under the SNC Regional or National project ? Participation of South American countries in the future results of the Eta/CPTEC model activities. Strenghtnening capacity – regional training

IPCC AR4 Eta/CPTEC

Results and Products Envisaged

V&A Strategy develop a preliminary analysis of the impacts associated to climate change in key areas in accordance with Brazilian national circumstances, mainly in those areas that vulnerability is influenced by physical, social and economic factors. The initial goal is to analyze areas considered to be strategically relevant, where the impacts associated to climate change can be important to Brazil, and that could be studied independently while Brazilian future climate scenarios have not been concluded. This strategy would correspond to the steps Assessing current vulnerability and Assessing future climate risks of the Adaptation Policy Framework of the UNDP/GEF. However, further development of some results of this Outcome will depend on future results achieved in developing climate regional models, which will provide more reliable scenarios for South America, in respect to the impacts of climate change either on mean surface temperature or on precipitation patterns.

Priority Studies Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Health Sector (including one activity: study the vulnerability to climate related diseases - such as malaria, leishmaniasis and cholera - and adaptation measures); Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Energy Sector (including one activity: evaluate the vulnerability of the power sector and possible adaptation measures); Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation related to Water Resources, Floods and Desertification (including one activity: estimate the biophysical impacts of climate change on hydrologic resources in terms of water quantity – annual and seasonal distribution); Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Agriculture (including one activity: study of the possible effects of climate change on the Brazilian agricultural sector); Report on Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Coastal Zone Management (including one activity: analyze the overall sea level rise in Brazil as a consequence of climate change); Report on Vulnerability and Biodiversity (including one activity: analyze the climate change effects on selected biodiversity aspects in Brazil, which is corals photo symbiotic organisms – coral bleaching)

Priority Studies Coordination between the elaboration of the Regional modeling of Climate and Climate Change Scenarios and the vulnerability and adaptation research and studies concerning strategic sectors that are vulnerable to the impacts associated with climate change in Brazil

Eventos extremos anuales de lluvia (izquierda) y de temperatura (derecha) para la América del Sur al sur de 10o S, para el escenário A2, período , en relacción al clima actual ( ). Los escenários fueran derivados del modelo regional HadRM3.

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Aguiye Muchas Gracias! Thank you ! Obrigado!