CBRFC/NRCS DISCUSSION CRFS March 26,

WATER YEAR 2015 PRECIPITATION AND SNOWPACK CONDITIONS 2

FALL CONDITIONS CBRFC Model Soil Moisture November 15,

WINTER PRECIPITATION 4

MARCH PRECIPITATION 5

WINTER TEMPERATURES 6

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT MARCH 4, 2015MARCH 25,

MARCH FLOWS 14-day Average Streamflow Compared to Historical Streamflow 8

WATER YEAR 2015 WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS 9

WEATHER FORECASTS 10 7 Day QPF Issued 3/26 Days 1-5 Mean Max Temperature Anomaly Issued 3/26 Days 3-7 Mean Max Temperature Anomaly Issued 3/26

WEATHER FORECASTS 11

ENSO EVOLUTION El Niño La Niña Neutral Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 17 March 2015) % chance of El Nino through most of

13

CLIMATE OUTLOOKS 14

CLIMATE OUTLOOKS 15

WATER YEAR 2015 WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS 16

CBRFC WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS MARCH 1, 2015 OFFICIAL FORECASTS MARCH 24, 2015 RAW ESP FORECASTS 17

ESP CHANGE IN %AVG MARCH 1 VS. MARCH 24 18

19 101% 88%

Mar 1Mar 24 NRCS- Daily NRCS- Statistical 590/ 635r NRCS FINAL % 20 Mar 1Mar 16Mar 24 CBRFC- SWS 650 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 0) CBRFC- ESP (QPF 5) CBRFC FINAL % %

21 Mar 1Mar 16Mar 24 CBRFC- SWS 953 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 0) CBRFC- ESP (QPF 5) CBRFC FINAL % % Mar 1Mar 24 NRCS- Daily NRCS- Statistical 710r NRCS FINAL %

22 56% 72%

23 Mar 1Mar 24 CBRFC- SWS 209 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 0) CBRFC- ESP (QPF 5) CBRFC FINAL % 3/1: 193 / 56%

24 Mar 1Mar 24 CBRFC- SWS 776 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 0) CBRFC- ESP (QPF 5) CBRFC FINAL % 3/1: 715 / 76%

25 55%

26 Mar 1Mar 24 CBRFC- SWS 69 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 0) 7570 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 5) 7766 CBRFC FINAL 72 67% 3/1: 69 / 64%

27 88% COLORADO - CAMEO APRIL – JULY VOLUME KAF / 76% KAF / 64% KAF / 91% KAF / 38%

Mar 1Mar 24 CBRFC-SWS2300 CBRFC-ESP (QPF 0) % CBRFC-ESP (QPF 5) CBRFC FINAL % 28 Mar 1Mar 24 NRCS- Daily NRCS- Statistical 2080r NRCS FINAL %

84% 29

30 Mar 1Mar 16Mar 24 CBRFC-SWS578 CBRFC-ESP (No QPF) CBRFC-ESP (QPF) CBRFC FINAL % % Mar 1Mar 24 NRCS- Daily NRCS- Statistical 520/ 590r NRCS FINAL %

CBRFC: 88 / 89% 3/1 NRCS: 92 / 93% CBRFC: 91 / 90% 3/1 NRCS: 95 / 94% CBRFC: 210 / 71% 3/1 NRCS: 210 / 71% Mid Month Forecast Values

32 67%

33 Mar 1Mar 24 NRCS- Daily NRCS- Statistical 445r NRCS FINAL % Mar 1Mar 16Mar 24 CBRFC-SWS398 CBRFC-ESP (No QPF) CBRFC-ESP (QPF) CBRFC FINAL % %

Mid-Month CBRFC: 33 / 60% Mid-Month CBRFC: 140 / 72% 3/1 NRCS: 38 / 69% 3/1 NRCS: 145 / 75%

35 74%

3/1: CBRFC: 2140 / 72% NRCS: 1940 / 66% 3/1: CBRFC: 3650 / 82% NRCS: 3520 / 82% NRCS: 665/ 60% 3/1: CBRFC: 630/ 57% Green – Green River, UT Colorado – Cisco, nr San Juan – Bluff, nr Mar 1Mar 16Mar 24 NRCS- Statistical 4150r NRCS FINAL % Mar 1Mar 16Mar 24 CBRFC- SWS 5420/5078r CBRFC-ESP (QPF 0) % CBRFC-ESP (QPF 5) % CBRFC FINAL % % 36 Colorado – Lake Powell Inflow

Virgin and Lower Colorado 37

Lake Mead Intervening Flow Forecast issued 3/16/2015 March:80 KAF / 73% April:55 KAF / 52% May:50 KAF / 66% April - July: 185 KAF / 67% 3/1: 28 / 48% 3/24: 23 / 40% 55% 38 Virgin - Virgin 3/1: 28 / 48%

3/1: Mar-May forecast: 135 / 56% med Jan-May forecast: 205 / 66% med Jan-Feb obs: 70 kaf 39 Salt – Roosevelt, nr 3/1: Mar-May forecast: 117 / 109% med Jan-May forecast: 158 / 101% med Jan-Feb obs: 41 kaf Verde – Tangle Ck, blo