Www.guycarp.com El Mercado de Reaseguros Mundial y su efecto en el Ambito Latinoamericano Junio 3 2010, Fort Lauderdale Aidan Pope GC LAC.

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1 www.guycarp.com El Mercado de Reaseguros Mundial y su efecto en el Ambito Latinoamericano Junio 3 2010, Fort Lauderdale Aidan Pope GC LAC

2 1 Guy Carpenter Primer Trimestre de 2010…el Cisne Negro?

3 2 Guy Carpenter Estimativa de los Siniestros Recientes… 26 Marzo 2010 Source: Company Announcements, AIR, EQECAT, ISO PCS, Guy Carpenter

4 3 Guy Carpenter Efecto Sobre el Mercado de Reaseguros??? En Chile…. En America Latina… A Nivel Mundial… La Tendencia hoy es de Enfocarse mas en la Region Afectada….Por Que?

5 4 Guy Carpenter Costo de Reaseguro en Propriedades: Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-on-Line Index Source: Guy Carpenter

6 5 Guy Carpenter Precios de Seguros Comerciales en Estados Unidos… Note: Timelines superimposed by Guy Carpenter

7 6 Guy Carpenter La Vista Retroactiva: Cambios 2007 a 2009 en los capitales de reaseguro (GC Global Reinsurance Composite) (USD Billones)

8 7 Guy Carpenter Crecimiento en Capitales arriba de la tendencia (Russell 3000 P&C Index) Soft market Hard market Hard market softening Crisis Recovery Source: Guy Carpenter, Bloomberg data Excess capital

9 8 Guy Carpenter Lo Desconocido: Exposicion Neta de Aseguradoras a los PIIGS (% de Capital Libre) Source: Citigroup

10 9 Guy Carpenter Indice VIX (Volatilidad de los mercados) Source: Bloomberg S&L crisis LTCM Asian Contagion Sept. 11 Enron Capital markets closed Back to normal? PIIGS

11 10 Guy Carpenter Margen en los CDS para Diferentes Entidades…. Source : Guy Carpenter, Bloomberg data Greece California Allianz

12 11 Guy Carpenter Rendimientos en Inversiones seguros (Bonos de Gobierno): 5-year yields to maturity, source: Bloomberg data

13 12 Guy Carpenter Ratings S&P de Reaseguradores Globales Source: Standard & Poors, Guy Carpenter Note: Shows Guy Carpenters estimate of the lowering of Berkshire Hathaways rating from AAA to AA+ on 4 February 2010

14 13 Guy Carpenter Capital Reaseguro por Rating S & P: Source: Guy Carpenter, Standard & Poors YE 07 Current

15 14 Guy Carpenter Perspectivas para los Reaseguradores Internacionales Mejorar los Estados Financieros (Recesion) Reduccion de los Precios/Primas Mercado Generico de Rating A Solvencia II (Mayor Requerimiento de Capital) Menor Rendimiento Financiero Accionistas que piden mayor Retorno sobre Capital Invertido Presiones Inflacionarias Consolidacion….

16 15 Guy Carpenter Los Cuatro Jinites del Apocolipsis

17 16 Guy Carpenter Los Cuatro Jinetes Bajos Rendimientos de las Inversiones Precios a la Baja Inflacion Deterioro de las reservas

18 17 Guy Carpenter Valuation dispersion could lead to additional M&A Source: Bloomberg

19 18 Guy Carpenter Temas para America Latina ….Los Terremotos pueden ocurrir en cualquier epoca…! Jugadores Tradicionales versus Nuevos Entrantes Diferenciacion (Reaseguradores y Corredores) Compliance (Reaseguradores y Corredores) Condiciones de Reaseguro mas restringidas Nuevos Productos para un Mercado mas Sofisticado Tamano de Siniestros Individuales Internacionalizacion del Riesgo (Terrorismo o Cobertura Ambiental) Capacidad para Seguro/Reaseguro de Caucion Primeros seguros para la nueva clase adquisitiva

20 19 Guy Carpenter Que quieren los Reseguradores?? Dominio de la informacion Mejor Administracion de Riesgos (ERM) Mayor Transparencia sobre calculo de Reservas Tasas apropriadas para el riesgo implicito (Efecto Inflacionario) Mayor Dispercion del Riesgo

21 Important Disclosure Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC provides this report for general information only. The information and data contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should be understood to be general insurance/reinsurance information only. Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC makes no representations or warranties, express or implied. The information is not intended to be taken as advice with respect to any individual situation and cannot be relied upon as such. Please consult your insurance/reinsurance advisors with respect to individual coverage issues. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any calculation or forward-looking statements. Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any data, or current or forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, research, future events or otherwise. The rating agencies referenced herein reserve the right to modify company ratings at any time. Statements concerning tax, accounting or legal matters should be understood to be general observations based solely on our experience as reinsurance brokers and risk consultants and may not be relied upon as tax, accounting or legal advice, which we are not authorized to provide. All such matters should be reviewed with your own qualified advisors in these areas. This document or any portion of the information it contains may not be copied or reproduced in any form without the permission of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC, except that clients of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC need not obtain such permission when using this report for their internal purposes. The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of their respective owners. © 2010 Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC All Rights Reserved