TSUNAMI READY PROGRAM ZONAS SISMICAS Victor A. Huérfano MAPA DE INUNDACION Aurelio Mercado

Numerical Modeling Numerical Data Base Saving lives and property depends on how well the community is prepared Historical Observations Instrumental Data Base Bathymetry/Topographic data Population and Infrastructure Hypothetical Tsunami Scenarios (Seismology/Previous work) Computer Simulations Initial Conditions (Mansinha and Smylie) Propagation and run up (TIME project, Shuto) Alert System Worst Case Scenario Vulnerability Real Time Monitoring Forecasting Observations Messages (Protocols) Tsunami Hazard Planning Education and Outreach PR TWMP Observations

ZONAS SISMICAS Y SISMICIDAD LOCAL

BACKGROUND Puerto Rico Dominican Rep. HaitiJamaica Cuba Virgin Islands Lesser Antilles Trinidad

PLATE BOUNDARIES Cocos Plate Caribbean Plate South America Plate North America Plate Puerto Rico Trench Muertos Trough Anegada Passage 19ºN Fault Zone Septentrional Fault Mona Canyon

casualties (100) casualties (1790) casualties (???) casualties (???) casualties (???) casualties Shepherd, et al, (1992) 1670 MM = VII, San Germán y San Juan 1787 = VII-VIII, Costa Norte, Este y Oeste 1867 M =7.3, MM = VIII, Islas Vírgenes, Tsunami 20’ 1918 M = 7.3, MM = VIII, Área Oeste de PR, Tsunami 20’ 1943 M = 7.5, MM = V, Noreste de Puerto Rico Soufriere Kick’em Jenny EARTHQUAKES, TSUNAMIS and Active Volcanoes

MEDICIONES DE GPS Jansma, 2000

TSUNAMIS EN PUERTO RICO IntensityH (m) I-V< 1.0 VI2.0 VII-VIII4.0 IX-X8.0 XI16.0 XII32.0 Puerto Rico Trench Septentrional Fault Zone Mona Canyon Muertos Trough Anegada Passage Sombrero Seismic Zone 19ºN Fault Zone VI Basin

CARIBBEAN PLATE PUERTO RICO PLACAS TECTONICAS: Sismicidad Mundial

Clinton, Cua, Huèrfano, von Hillebrandt and Martinez (2006)

DISTRIBUCION LOCAL DE SISMICIDAD Clinton, Cua, Huèrfano, von Hillebrandt and Martinez (2006)

(J. Joyce) (ten Brink) (P. Dillon) PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS

|| ( Masson and Scanlon ) PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS

|| ( D. Larue ) PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS

(N. Grindlay )

PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS (W. McCann )

ZONAS SISMICAS Y MODELAJE NUMERICO PRT-A Segments: 24 Maximum M: 8.0 Recurrence T: 3800 PRT-B Segments: 27 Maximum M: 8.0 Recurrence T: ºN Segments: 16 Maximum M: 7.6 Recurrence T: 3300 SOMBRERO SZ Segments: 24 Maximum M: 7.7 Recurrence T: 1200 ANEGADA P. Segments: 28 Maximum M: 7.7 Recurrence T: 3700 LEEWARD LZ. Segments: 11 Maximum M: 7.0 Recurrence T: 3000 MUERTOS T. Segments: 28 Maximum M: 7.7 Recurrence T: 3700 SEPTENTRIONAL F. Segments: 14 Maximum M: 7.8 (ref) Recurrence T: 1900 MONA CANYON Segments: 24 Maximum M: 7.5 Recurrence T: 2000 EASTERN DR. Segments: 9 Maximum M: 7.2 Recurrence T: 800 SOUTHWESTERN Segments: 36 Maximum M: 6.6 Recurrence T: 1800 NORTH PLATFORM Segments: 25 Maximum M: 6.8 Recurrence T: 2500 PUERTO RICO REGION Faults: 102 Segments: 268 Maximum M (Faults): 7.6 Maximum M (Segments): 7.2 Seismic Catalogue: Waveform Catalogue: 3518 Quakes used: 4422 Depth: ≤ 50 km Offshore Seismicity Completeness: 3.2 Ml (Outside) ( Huérfano )

PR-TWMP Numerical Data Base

TSUNAMI GENERATION AND ATACK

GEOMETRY, SIZE and TIMING HYPOCENTER

MALLAS UTILIZADAS EN LAS SIMULACIONES A : 27 sec/arc B : 9 sec/arc C : 3 sec/arc

R5: Strike = 122 Dip = 80 Rake = 90 Mw = 7.7 { Geometry Size…….

TSUNAMI INUNDATION MAP Yauco/Guayanilla, PR

TSUNAMI EVACUATION MAP Guayanilla, PR

QUE PODEMOS HACER?