Day-to-day meteorological variability in northern Chile: impacts and predictability René D. Garreaud Department of Geophysics Universidad de Chile General.

Presentación del tema: "Day-to-day meteorological variability in northern Chile: impacts and predictability René D. Garreaud Department of Geophysics Universidad de Chile General."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 Day-to-day meteorological variability in northern Chile: impacts and predictability René D. Garreaud Department of Geophysics Universidad de Chile General circulation and climate context Regional circulation Mid-latitude systems Central Andes Convection Weather forecasting: Basis – Methods - Applications

2 ZCIT ecuador 33S A B B Circulación media de gran escala

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16 In the context of weather and climate phenomena atmosphere  continuum fluid Basic equations

17 But... Previous system is highly non-linear and implicit; no analytic solution can be obtained Some physical processes are difficult to model (cloud formation, radioactive transfer, surface exchange, etc.).... Numerical modeling Use regular grids (vertical coordinate) Finite differences in space and time (vs. Spectral models) Parameterization of sub-grid processes

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20 a. Met. variable (Taire, R, etc.) b.Seeing (T  1 día) c. River runoff (T  1 semana) d. Tomato growth (T  2 mes) Time (2 months) 3 days Nowcast Weather forecast Extended forecast Initial conditions Climate prediction Initial conditions

21 Vis IR (cercano)Vapor de Agua IR(lejano)

22 MM5-DGF (2002) D1 D2 D3 Detalles de la corrida D1: 135 x 135 (km) - 34 x 40 x 30 puntos D2: 45x45 (km) - 55 x 55 x 30 puntos D3: 15 x 15 (km) - 73 x 73 x 30 puntos Inicialización: Un ciclo 0000 UTC (2000 HL) cada día Periodo de simulación: 72 horas Intervalo de salida: 1 hora Condiciones de borde e iniciales: NCEP-NOAA (USA) met.dfg.uchile.cl/tiempo/MM5

23 Mapas sinópticos

24 Series de Tiempo

25 Cortes tiempo-altura