NEW ROLES NEW POLICIES Marcelo M. Giugale Director Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Africa Region The World Bank
A “Switchover” in Global Growth 1. Cleaner Balance Sheets 2. Learning 3. Growing Middle Classes 4. South-South Trade 5. Pricey Commodities
How Will Development Policy Change? Three Examples 3. A New Commercial Order 1. The Beginning of the End of Poverty 2. Better Governments
The Regional Headlines 1. Africa: Take-Off Time Approaching 2. East Asia: A “New Normal” 3. East Europe and Central Asia: Heavy Legacy 4. Latin-America: A New Maturity 5. Middle East and North Africa: One More Chance 6. South Asia: An Opportunity to Transform
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Source: World Bank calculations on IMF data General Government Debt, Real and Projected
Learning from the World Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2010
Growing Middle Class Source: World Bank
South-South Trade Source: United Nations COMTRADE
Sub-Sahara Africa Trade Source : United Nations COMTRADE 91% 3%
Source: EIU y Global Financial Data Pricey Commodities
Source: EIU y Global Financial Data Pricey Commodities
Source: World Bank. Poverty Trends in SSA Share of people living on US$ 1 a day
Conditional Cash Transfers Source: World Bank
Ranking Human Opportunity Index Chile Uruguay Argentina Costa Rica Venezuela Mexico Jamaica Colombia Ecuador Brazil Dominican Rep. Paraguay Bolivia Peru Panama El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Doing Business Mexico Peru Colombia Chile Panama Jamaica El Salvador Dominican Rep. Guatemala Paraguay Argentina Nicaragua Uruguay Costa Rica Brazil Ecuador Honduras Bolivia Venezuela Human Development Index Chile Argentina Uruguay Panama Mexico Costa Rica Peru Brazil Venezuela Ecuador Colombia Jamaica Dominican Rep. El Salvador Bolivia Paraguay Honduras Nicaragua Guatemala
Source: World Bank Number of Countries with Fiscal Rules
Sovereign Wealth Funds Number of countries and number of funds Source: World Bank staff calculations on SWF Institute data
Source: Worldwide Government Indicators, World Bank. More Effective Governments Government Effectiveness: Regional Average Rankings
Source: Worldwide Government Indicators, World Bank. More Effective Governments Government Effectiveness: Regional Average Rankings
Source: Worldwide Government Indicators, World Bank. More Effective Governments Government Effectiveness: Regional Average Rankings
Source: Otaviano Canuto Recoupling and Switchover Developing Countries (growth rates) A ---> B: Reverse coupling B ---> C: Locomotive switchover Developed Countries (growth rates) A B C AC 0AC 1 DC 1 DC 0