Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina – LA 29 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto Fac.de Agronomía y Vet.- Agrometeorología | Fac. Ciencias Económicas - Dpto.Economía Session III: Observed Climate Variability Climate Extreme Events and Climate Variability Cecilia Conde, Carlos Gay, Marta Vinocur, Roberto Seiler, Francisco Estrada

Climate Extreme Events and Climate Variability Goal: Goal: To study regional climatic trends and variabilility To study regional climatic trends and variabilility To identify the types of climatic events that are relevant to agricultural production in the study regions To identify the types of climatic events that are relevant to agricultural production in the study regions To develop the indices of climate extremes that best reflect observed agricultural impacts To develop the indices of climate extremes that best reflect observed agricultural impacts Activities Activities Analyze tendencies in climate variability Analyze tendencies in climate variability Relationship of ENSO to local climatic variability and events Relationship of ENSO to local climatic variability and events Define “risk spaces” and relate them to impact of extreme events Define “risk spaces” and relate them to impact of extreme events

Argentina: Study sites

 Veracruz aporta el 28% de la producción de café nacional W N W N  La región centro de Veracruz produce más del 90% de la producción de café.  El café se produce en 842 comunidades de 82 municipios. Study Area in Veracruz-Mexico  Los municipios de Coatepec, Xico y Hutusco se escogieron para los estudios de caso.

Precipitation: * mm/day/ 95 years Temperature: * °C/95 years Central Region of Veracruz

Rainfall Mean values: December

Precipitation Anomalies ( vs ) January

Mean Temperature Anomalies ( vs ) July

El Niño and Mexico IN MEXICO Winter More Pcp More Pcp Lower T Lower TSummer Less Pcp Less Pcp Higher T Higher T Central Region Veracruz

EL Niño and the Central Region of Veracruz El Niño: less severe mid – summer drought canícula (July - August). El Niño: less severe mid – summer drought canícula (July - August). Lower Pcp in Spring (March – May). (“The flower becomes leaf” *). Lower Pcp in Spring (March – May). (“The flower becomes leaf” *). Increase in Temperature: Increase in Broca (pests)*. Increase in Temperature: Increase in Broca (pests)*. * From regional experts and farmers

Extreme Events Intra-annual extreme temperature range (difference between the highest temperature and the lowest value of the same calendar year) Intra-annual extreme temperature range (difference between the highest temperature and the lowest value of the same calendar year) Changes in Frequency, Intensity, Duration? Changes in Frequency, Intensity, Duration? M.A. Hernández, UV Tmax +, Tmin + Tmax +, Tmin -

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al, 1993,1995) Isla Verde-Córdoba

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al, 1993,1995) Laboulaye

Veracruz Study Case (Teocelo) Risk Space Annual anomalies Tmin vs Pcp N = El Niño years Na = La Niña years 60s &70s 80&90s M. Hulme y O. Brown (1998) Tmin=14.3; pcp= mm

Veracruz Study Case (Teocelo) Risk Space (cont.) Annual anomalies Tmax vs Pcp N = El Niño years Na = La Niña years M. Hulme y O. Brown (1998) Tmax=24.4°C; pcp= mm