El Mercado de Reaseguros Mundial y su efecto en el Ambito Latinoamericano Junio , Fort Lauderdale Aidan Pope GC LAC

1 Guy Carpenter Primer Trimestre de 2010…el Cisne Negro?

2 Guy Carpenter Estimativa de los Siniestros Recientes… 26 Marzo 2010 Source: Company Announcements, AIR, EQECAT, ISO PCS, Guy Carpenter

3 Guy Carpenter Efecto Sobre el Mercado de Reaseguros??? En Chile…. En America Latina… A Nivel Mundial… La Tendencia hoy es de Enfocarse mas en la Region Afectada….Por Que?

4 Guy Carpenter Costo de Reaseguro en Propriedades: Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-on-Line Index Source: Guy Carpenter

5 Guy Carpenter Precios de Seguros Comerciales en Estados Unidos… Note: Timelines superimposed by Guy Carpenter

6 Guy Carpenter La Vista Retroactiva: Cambios 2007 a 2009 en los capitales de reaseguro (GC Global Reinsurance Composite) (USD Billones)

7 Guy Carpenter Crecimiento en Capitales arriba de la tendencia (Russell 3000 P&C Index) Soft market Hard market Hard market softening Crisis Recovery Source: Guy Carpenter, Bloomberg data Excess capital

8 Guy Carpenter Lo Desconocido: Exposicion Neta de Aseguradoras a los PIIGS (% de Capital Libre) Source: Citigroup

9 Guy Carpenter Indice VIX (Volatilidad de los mercados) Source: Bloomberg S&L crisis LTCM Asian Contagion Sept. 11 Enron Capital markets closed Back to normal? PIIGS

10 Guy Carpenter Margen en los CDS para Diferentes Entidades…. Source : Guy Carpenter, Bloomberg data Greece California Allianz

11 Guy Carpenter Rendimientos en Inversiones seguros (Bonos de Gobierno): 5-year yields to maturity, source: Bloomberg data

12 Guy Carpenter Ratings S&P de Reaseguradores Globales Source: Standard & Poors, Guy Carpenter Note: Shows Guy Carpenters estimate of the lowering of Berkshire Hathaways rating from AAA to AA+ on 4 February 2010

13 Guy Carpenter Capital Reaseguro por Rating S & P: Source: Guy Carpenter, Standard & Poors YE 07 Current

14 Guy Carpenter Perspectivas para los Reaseguradores Internacionales Mejorar los Estados Financieros (Recesion) Reduccion de los Precios/Primas Mercado Generico de Rating A Solvencia II (Mayor Requerimiento de Capital) Menor Rendimiento Financiero Accionistas que piden mayor Retorno sobre Capital Invertido Presiones Inflacionarias Consolidacion….

15 Guy Carpenter Los Cuatro Jinites del Apocolipsis

16 Guy Carpenter Los Cuatro Jinetes Bajos Rendimientos de las Inversiones Precios a la Baja Inflacion Deterioro de las reservas

17 Guy Carpenter Valuation dispersion could lead to additional M&A Source: Bloomberg

18 Guy Carpenter Temas para America Latina ….Los Terremotos pueden ocurrir en cualquier epoca…! Jugadores Tradicionales versus Nuevos Entrantes Diferenciacion (Reaseguradores y Corredores) Compliance (Reaseguradores y Corredores) Condiciones de Reaseguro mas restringidas Nuevos Productos para un Mercado mas Sofisticado Tamano de Siniestros Individuales Internacionalizacion del Riesgo (Terrorismo o Cobertura Ambiental) Capacidad para Seguro/Reaseguro de Caucion Primeros seguros para la nueva clase adquisitiva

19 Guy Carpenter Que quieren los Reseguradores?? Dominio de la informacion Mejor Administracion de Riesgos (ERM) Mayor Transparencia sobre calculo de Reservas Tasas apropriadas para el riesgo implicito (Efecto Inflacionario) Mayor Dispercion del Riesgo

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