Analysis of the inland distribution of maritime traffic: an application of the gravity model NARSC - Washington November, 2014 Authors: Lorena García Alonso (RegioLab) Rafael Garduño Rivera (CIDE) w w w . u n i o v i . n e t / r e g i o l a b Laboratorio de Análisis Económico Regional de la Universidad de Oviedo

Objective Analyze the distribution of inter-port trade flows from the perspective of the gravity analysis. Background Choice port models w w w . u n i o v i . n e t / r e g i o l a b Laboratorio de Análisis Económico Regional de la Universidad de Oviedo

Approach Data Redefining the object of study: From the province (head of the election) To the port ( flows ) Data Agencia tributaria (Inland Revenue ) Puertos del Estado (State Ports ) INE, FVVA, Ministry of Development. w w w . u n i o v i . n e t / r e g i o l a b Laboratorio de Análisis Económico Regional de la Universidad de Oviedo

Nº Province Autonomous Community Port (Province) 01 Álava País Vasco   02 Albacete Castilla la Mancha 03 Alicante C. Valenciana 04 Almería Andalucía 05 Ávila Castilla-Léon 06 Badajoz Extremadura 08 Barcelona Cataluña Barcelona (Barcelona) 09 Burgos 10 Cáceres 11 Cádiz Algeciras (Cádiz) 12 Castellón 13 Ciudad Real 14 Córdoba 15 Coruña (A) Galicia 16 Cuenca 17 Girona 18 Granada 19 Guadalajara 20 Guipúzcoa 21 Huelva 22 Huesca Aragón 23 Jaén 24 León 25 Lleida

Nº Province Autonomous Community Port (Province) 26 Rioja (La) La Rioja   27 Lugo Galicia 28 Madrid C. de Madrid 29 Málaga Andalucía 30 Murcia 31 Navarra 32 Ourense 33 Asturias 34 Palencia Castilla-Léon 36 Pontevedra 37 Salamanca 39 Cantabria 40 Segovia 41 Sevilla 42 Soria 43 Tarragona Cataluña 44 Teruel Aragón 45 Toledo Castilla la Mancha 46 Valencia C. Valenciana Valencia (Valencia) 47 Valladolid 48 Vizcaya País Vasco Bilbao (Vizcaya) 49 Zamora 50 Zaragoza

Variables Variables Description Units LC(pi) Land Cost (port-province) Euros Tgrl(p) General merchandise traffic (port) Thousands of Tons TEUS(p) Number of containers of 20 feet Tdst(pj) Volume of port traffic to destination Dist Distance Province-Port Kms w w w . u n i o v i . n e t / r e g i o l a b Laboratorio de Análisis Económico Regional de la Universidad de Oviedo

Model 𝑭 𝒊𝒑𝒋 : # of exports from province i to destination j 𝐹 𝑖𝑝𝑗 = 𝛾 1 𝑂 𝑖 + 𝛾 2 𝐷 𝑗 + 𝛾 3 𝑙𝑛 𝑂𝐷_𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑗 + 𝛾 4 𝑙𝑛 𝑂𝐷_𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 2 𝑖𝑗 + 𝜖 𝑖𝑗𝑡 𝑭 𝒊𝒑𝒋 : # of exports from province i to destination j 𝑶 𝒊 : Origin-specific factors (pushing) 𝑫 𝒋 : Destination-specific factors (pulling) 𝑶𝑫_𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒊𝒑 : distance between i and p 𝝐 𝒊𝒋𝒕 : error term w w w . u n i o v i . n e t / r e g i o l a b Laboratorio de Análisis Económico Regional de la Universidad de Oviedo

t statistics in parentheses Results Variables FEijp Ln(Volume of port traffic to destination) 1.338*** Ln (Distance Province-Port) -2.587*** Constant 11.83*** Observations 1504 R-squared 0.139 Adjusted R-squared 0.137 t statistics in parentheses * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001 w w w . u n i o v i . n e t / r e g i o l a b Laboratorio de Análisis Económico Regional de la Universidad de Oviedo

Conclusions Volume of port traffic attracts greater flow export to the destination port Distance btw province & destination port acts as a factor of repulsion among them w w w . u n i o v i . n e t / r e g i o l a b Laboratorio de Análisis Económico Regional de la Universidad de Oviedo

Future Research Identify other variables ( source and destination) Make (error / lag) Space Model Create a panel ( future paper ) w w w . u n i o v i . n e t / r e g i o l a b Laboratorio de Análisis Económico Regional de la Universidad de Oviedo

Thank you w w w . u n i o v i . n e t / r e g i o l a b Laboratorio de Análisis Económico Regional de la Universidad de Oviedo