ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS: San Luis Potosí – Bledos – Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways Santín Martínez.

Presentación del tema: "ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS: San Luis Potosí – Bledos – Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways Santín Martínez."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS: San Luis Potosí – Bledos – Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways Santín Martínez Gabriela Segura Herrera Eduardo 18 th ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL EMME/2 USERS’ CONFERENCE Mexico City, October 2004

2 ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways TOLL ROAD CHARACTERISTICS  Length: 76 km  Speed: 100 km/hr  Section: 12 m Villa de Arriaga Bledos La Pila

3 ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways CARS MAIN OD PAIRS CARS MAIN OD PAIRS Origin – Destination Pairs Daily Trips weekday Percentage Urban Zone SLP Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Colima, Nayarit 138242% Guanajuato, Michoacán 55417% Villa de Arriaga 3059% Industrial Zone SLP Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Colima, Nayarit 1685% Guanajuato, Michoacán 923% States Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Colima, Nayarit, Norte de Tamaulipas 873%

4 ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways CARSTRIP PURPOSE CARS TRIP PURPOSE

5 ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFIC MODELS AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFIC MODELS Trip Generation Population and employment Trip Distribution Fratar Model, two – dimensional balance Modal Choice Trip Assignment Logit Model with travel time and toll User equilibrium and multiclass

6 ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways VALUE OF TIME VALUE OF TIME WeekendWeekday

7 ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways TRAFFICASSIGNMENT TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT

8 ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways TRAFFIC FORECAST TRAFFIC FORECAST Average Annual Daily Traffic 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 199520002005201020152020202520302035 Year Vehicles CarsBuses Single Frame TrucksTwo Unit Trucks

9 ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways AADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED AADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED Cars Buses Single Frame Trucks Two Unit Trucks -36.3% -8.2% 9.2%5.2% -43.8% 14.1% 56.4% 82.1% -68.4% -57.3% -45.7% -53.5% 93.7% 85.0% 84.5% 84.3% 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 2000200120022003 Year Vehicles Observed Cars Estimated Cars 0 50 100 150 200 250 2000200120022003 Year Vehicles Observed Buses Estimated Buses 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000200120022003 Year Vehicles S.F.T. Observed S.F.T. Estimated 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000200120022003 Year Vehicles T.U.T. Observed T.U.T. Estimated

10 ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways VEHICLE COMPOSITION ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED MEDIUM SCENARY VEHICLE COMPOSITION ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED MEDIUM SCENARY

11 ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS San Luis Potosí – Bledos - Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways Tránsito Observado vs. Estimado AADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED AADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED SLP-La Pila-Arriaga SLP-Cerritos-Río Verde 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 20022003 Year AADT Observed Cars Estimated Cars 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 2000200120022003 Year AADT Observed Cars Estimated Cars