Perspectiva del Sistema Bancario Mexicano Solicitud de Comentarios sobre la Propuesta de Nueva Metodología de Bancos David Olivares VP-SCO / Felipe Carvallo.

Presentación del tema: "Perspectiva del Sistema Bancario Mexicano Solicitud de Comentarios sobre la Propuesta de Nueva Metodología de Bancos David Olivares VP-SCO / Felipe Carvallo."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 Perspectiva del Sistema Bancario Mexicano Solicitud de Comentarios sobre la Propuesta de Nueva Metodología de Bancos David Olivares VP-SCO / Felipe Carvallo VP-SA Moody’s de México Seminario Anual - Septiembre 2014

2 Agenda Parte 1. Perspectiva del Sistema Bancario: México
1. Factores de Calificación Clave para la Perspectiva Estable Parte 2. Solicitud de Comentarios: Propuesta de Nueva Metodología de Bancos 1. Visión General 2. Estructura de las Evaluaciones del Riesgo Crediticio Base de Bancos (BCA) 3. Apoyo y Análisis Estructural 4. Resumen y Análisis de Impacto Preliminar

3 Perspectiva del Sistema Bancario: México
Parte 1 Perspectiva del Sistema Bancario: México

4 Universo Calificado de Bancos de Moody’s

5 Factores de Calificación Clave para la Perspectiva Estable
1 Factores de Calificación Clave para la Perspectiva Estable

6 La perspectiva para el sistema bancario ha sido estable desde el 2010
Ambiente Operativo Positivo + Las reformas mejoran los prospectos económicos. El PIB potencial eventualmente alcanzará el 3%-4% (2%-3% antes de las reformas). Las reformas, sin embargo, tomarán tiempo para dar frutos. + Bajas tasas de interés e inflación apoyarán la demanda crediticia, ingresos y calidad de activos. Calidad de Activos y Capital Estable +/- Cambo en mezcla de activos, disminuye la exposición a riesgo gubernamental y aumentan creditos mas rentables (PyMEs, hipotecas y consumo). Sin embargo, estos créditos consumen más capital y requieren más provisiones. - Concentración en créditos corporativos grandes son un riesgo latente. La morosidad se estabilizará en niveles relativamente elevados, reflejando la continua expansión en los segmentos de mayor riesgo. + El capital y las reservas son adecuadas para proteger contra riesgos crediticios. Rentabilidad y Eficiencia = El amplio MIN es resultado de depósitos estables de bajo costo y poder de fijación de precios. Los márgenes se mantendrán estable: balance entre enfoque activos de mayor rendimiento y disminución de tasas de interés. - Los costos de provisiones se mantendrán altos a medida que los bancos expanden la cartera de consumo y PyMEs. = Las ganancias en eficiencia serán limitadas mientras los bancos invierten en actualizar su infraestructura. Fondeo y Liquidez = Los bancos se benefician de depósitos estables en moneda local (60% de los pasivos). La dependencia en fondeo de mercado es moderada, limitando el riesgo de refinanciamiento. = La tenencia de valores gubernamentales líquidos ha disminuido, pero sigue alta y continuará reforzando la resistencia a choques de liquidez. + La adopción del requerimiento de indicadores de liquidez de Basilea III (LCR, cobertura) en 2015 será suave y no limitará los planes de expansión de préstamos, particularmente en los grandes bancos. Apoyo Sistémico = Esperamos que la capacidad y la voluntad del gobierno para apoyar al sistema bancario seguirán siendo altas, sobre todo para los bancos de importancia sistémica.

7 Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Las Reformas Las reformas estructurales mejoran las perspectivas económicas de largo plazo. La reforma financiera incluye medidas para aumentar el acceso al crédito y simplificar el proceso de adjudicación de garantías. El impacto de las reformas será particularmente significativo en energía y telecomunicaciones. Las inversiones previstas en estos sectores generarán oportunidades de negocio directas e indirectas para los bancos. Las reformas, sin embargo, tomarán tiempo para dar resultados. Burós de Crédito / Banca de Desarrollo / Juzgados Especializados

8 Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Algunos indicadores macro son estables o empiezan su recuperación, a pesar de la baja actividad económica * Índice Global de Actividad Económica Fuente: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI)

9 Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico El crédito bancario/PIB esta aumentando, pero aun por debajo del promedio de la región Nota: Información de México a diciembre 2008 y diciembre 2013. Fuente: Moody's, Superintendencia de Bancos e Instituciones Financieras (Chile), Banco Central do Brasil, Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia, CNBV, Superintendencia de Banca y Seguros (Perú), Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) y el Banco Mundial

10 Cambio gradual en la composición de activos
Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Cambio gradual en la composición de activos Nota: Exposición a Riesgo Gubernamental = Bonos Gubernamentales (90% de Inversiones en Valores) + Cartera de Crédito a Entidades Gubernamentales Fuente: Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV)

11 Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Hipotecas y créditos a PyMEs y consumo son críticos para el crecimiento Fuente: Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV)

12 Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Calidad de activos relativamente estable; balance de crecimiento económico y enfoque en créditos de mayor riesgo Fuente: Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV)

13 Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico A medida que los bancos presten más, utilizarán más capital, pero el capital básico es fuerte... Fuente: Banco de México (Banxico)

14 … y proporciona una amplia capacidad de absorción de pérdidas
Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico … y proporciona una amplia capacidad de absorción de pérdidas 14.1% Fuente: Moody’s

15 Amplio margen a pesar de menores tasa de interés.
Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Amplio margen a pesar de menores tasa de interés. Pricing power Mezcla de cartera Fuente: Moody’s, Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV) y Banco Nacional de México (Banxico)

16 Alto gasto en provisiones por enfoque a créditos de mayor riesgo
Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Alto gasto en provisiones por enfoque a créditos de mayor riesgo Fuente: Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV) and Banco de México (Banxico)

17 Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico A pesar de una mayor proporción de bonos en el fondeo, el riesgo de refinanciamiento es limitado Fuente: Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV) y Banco de México (Banxico)

18 Ambiente Operativo | Calidad de Activos y Capital | Rentabilidad y Eficiencia | Fondeo y Liquidez | Apoyo Sistémico Disposición para apoyar a bancos de importancia sistémica en caso de estrés se mantiene* Fuente: Moody's * Probable cambio – RFC – cambio más significativo

19 Solicitud de Comentarios: Propuesta de Nueva Metodología de Bancos
Parte 2 Solicitud de Comentarios: Propuesta de Nueva Metodología de Bancos

20 1 Vision General

21 Request for Comment Highlights
Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Request for Comment Highlights Key proposed changes to our methodology respond to three core objectives: Build on the strengths of the existing methodology: New scorecard focuses on a relatively small number of simple, predictive metrics Backtesting has shown these to be strongly predictive of failure or the need for support Analysts and rating committees to consider additional ratios as relevant for each institution New ‘Macro Profile’ derived from Sovereign Rating governs calibration Each financial factor scored as a function of both a financial ratio and the Macro Profile Forward-looking expectations and scenario analysis fully integrated into the Scorecard Respond to the fundamental shift in the way failing banks are resolved or recapitalized in certain jurisdictions Distinguish loss severity by individual creditor classes for banks subject to resolution Recognise that deposits may be preferred to senior unsecured debt in resolution Refine underlying concepts of Joint-Default Approach “Systemic support indicators” replaced by the sovereign rating

22 Proposed Rating Structure
Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Proposed Rating Structure Sequential approach maintained LGF liability analysis in Operational Resolution Regimes Elimination of Systemic Support Indicator Introduction of a Macro Profile

23 2 Estructura de las Evaluaciones del Riesgo Crediticio Base de Bancos (BCA)

24 Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General
BCA Structure Our bank Baseline Credit Assessments describe the probability of a bank defaulting on any of its rated instruments, in the absence of external support. There are three stages to the BCA analysis: Macro Profile: Reflects systemic risks (common to all banks in a given system) Financial Profile: Key bank-specific financial metrics Qualitative Adjustments: Additional qualitative and quantitative factors

25 Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General
1. Macro Profile Macro Profile builds on three sovereign scorecard components, and three banking components. 1. Systemic performance correlated with macroeconomic conditions. Measured by GDP growth/volatility, Global Competitiveness Index. 2. Banks depend on legal framework to enforce contracts. Measured by WB Corruption and Rule of Law Indices, inflation level/volatility. 3. Banking system exposed to same external and political vulnerabilities as sovereign. Measured by External Vulnerability indicator, domestic political risk. Sovereign Component Banking Component KEY: 1 Economic Strength 2 Institutional Strength * 3 Susceptibilty to Event Risk 1 Credit Conditions Rapid credit expansion can be a significant leading indicator of credit quality problems. Measured by level and growth rate of Credit to GDP Banking Country Risk Funding Conditions Adjustment 2 Industry Structure Adjustment 3 Unadjusted Banking System Macro Profile As Credit Conditions deteriorate, weight of Banking Country Risk decreases 2. Funding problems can both reflect and create systemic vulnerabilities. Measured by market funding measures/cost, central bank balance sheets. 3. Under/over capacity or competitive distortions (government interference) may indicate strengths or vulnerabilities. Banking System Macro Profile

26 Selected Macro Profile Rank Ordering
Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Macro Profile Rank Ordering Moody’s macro profiles for selected economies: Country Banking Country Risk Credit Conditions Funding Conditions Industry Structure Banking System Macro Profile Australia Aaa - Aa2 Neutral -1 1 Very Strong United States Weak + Very Strong - Canada Weak France Germany United Kingdom Chile Aa1 - Aa3 Strong + Korea Saudi Arabia Aa3 - A2 Strong Mexico A1 – A3 Brazil A2 – Baa1 Moderate + Panama A3 – Baa2 Moderate - Uruguay A2 - Baa1 Moderate Italy Spain Peru Baa1 - Baa3 Colombia Baa2 - Ba1 Costa Rica Baa2 – Ba1 Weak +l Russia Dominican Republic Ba1 – Ba3 Weak - Bolivia Ba3 – B2 Argentina B3 – Caa2 Very Weak + Ukraine B3 - Caa2 Egypt B2 - Caa1 Very Weak Cyprus -3 Very Weak - Selected Macro Profile Rank Ordering

27 Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General
2. Financial Profile In our assessment of a bank’s financial profile we score key risks and their mitigants Tangible assets = total assets less derivatives less goodwill and other intangibles Tangible banking assets = total assets less derivatives less goodwill and other intangibles less insurance investments

28 Initial BCA score derived from Financial & Macro Profiles
Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Initial BCA score derived from Financial & Macro Profiles Rating of banks in weak systems are less sensitive to their individual financial metrics and more reflective of changes in the macro environment. Example: Bank’s Financial Ratio Country’s Macro Profile Initial Score Bank in Country 1 Moderate Strong baa2 Bank in Country 2 Moderate Weak b1 VERY STRONG + VERY WEAK -

29 Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General
Assigned scores incorporate forecasts, auxiliary ratios, qualitative aspects & stress scenarios. Example Scorecard: Financial factors Score incorporating Macro Profile Qualitative factors quantified Example Scorecard:

30 Business diversification Opacity and complexity
Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General 3. Qualitative Adjustments We may adjust our initial BCA score by one or more notches if we judge any of these factors has a material bearing on the bank’s overall risk profile. 1 Business diversification 2 Opacity and complexity 3 Corporate behavior Gauges a bank’s sensitivity to deterioration in a single business line. + Positive adjustments E.g. a one-notch increase for a firm with a diverse range of business activities that provide an overall reliable earnings stream. - Negative adjustments E.g. a one-notch decrease for a bank which derives more than about three-quarters of its revenues or earnings from a single business line. An institution’s riskiness increases with its complexity, other things being equal. + Positive adjustments None. - Negative adjustments E.g. a one-notch decrease (or more in extreme cases) if a bank has numerous business lines across many geographies and legal entities, significant exposure to derivatives, complex legal structure, large, complex and / or long-dated exposures to other financial institutions. A bank’s creditworthiness can be influenced by what we term its “corporate behavior”, which can also signal other concerns. + Positive adjustments Rare one-notch increases, e.g. from sustained exemplary stewardship over time with tangible impact on the risk profile - Negative adjustments One or more notch decreases considering the following factors: key man risk, insider and related party risks, strategy and management, dividend policy, and compensation policy.

31 Apoyo y Análisis Estructural
3 Apoyo y Análisis Estructural

32 Support & Structural Analysis consists of 3 elements
Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Support & Structural Analysis consists of 3 elements Affiliate Support: An entity may be supported by other entities within a group Loss Given Failure (LGF): Liability analysis to assess the impact of a failure of the bank on its various debt classes absent government support Government Support: An entity may be supported by local or the federal government A major innovation is the introduction of LGF How likely is a bank to be supported by affiliates? Determines the Adjusted BCA The risk that different creditors are exposed to in the event of the failure of a bank, absent support This enables us to distinguish between the BCA, bank senior unsecured, bank holding company senior unsecured, and deposits The extent to which risks to creditors are mitigated by public support Better distinguishing types of debt protecting depositors Lose s determined by the tranche of debt subordinated to each class And the size of each debt tranches

33 Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General
Affiliate Support No proposed change to our approach to assessing Affiliate Support Variables remain as follows: 1 2 3 4 Unsupported rating (BCA) Support probability Dependence (correlation) Creditworthiness These will determine a range of potential uplift under our Joint-Default Approach (JDA) Probability of Default (PD) = (1- Support Probability) * BCA + Support Probability * ((Dependence * min (BCA, Support Provider rating) + (1 - Dependence ) * BCA * Support Provider rating)

34 Loss Given Failure (LGF) Liability Analysis
Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Loss Given Failure (LGF) Liability Analysis For banks in countries with Operational Resolution Regimes (ORR), we apply LGF liability analysis; elsewhere, we use current notching. ORRs allow banks to selectively default on certain instruments outside of bankruptcy Operational Resolution Regime? YES NO Notching Senior unsecured rating: Adjusted BCA Dated subordinated debt rating: Adjusted BCA -1 Loss Given Failure (LGF) Liability Analysis Specific legislation enabling orderly resolution of failed bank Clarity of impact on depositors and other creditors Reduced probability of government support for senior creditors Expectation that the largest, most systemically important banks are typically resolved through support rather than bail-in Statutory alternative is bankruptcy, but resolution approaches tend to be defined only in a crisis WHERE: WHERE: European Union, United States (Title I and Title II), Switzerland, Others (esp. G-20) likely to follow Everywhere else, for now (i.e. Latin America)

35 Loss Given Failure Liability Analysis
Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Loss Given Failure Liability Analysis We combine our Macro Profile and the resolution approach to determine the median loss rate We identify affected debt and deposits. However, we recognize that the bank’s balance sheet at the time of failure may differ materially from its current structure. We look at the hierarchy of claims (subordination) assuming liquidation Impact of the failure of the bank on its various debt classes in the absence of any government support

36 Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General
Government Support Government support is assessed for each creditor class and uplift derived using JDA. NEW We will use sovereign rating rather than systemic support indicators (SSI) 95-100% 70-95% Very High 50-70% High 30-50% Moderate 0-30% Low Government Backed Updated from current 100% only 90% Very High 70% High 50% Moderate Notching within the JDA range is a Rating Committee judgment Government support does not necessarily apply to all debt classes, even in countries without Resolution Regimes.

37 Capacity of Country to Provide Support
Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Capacity of Country to Provide Support Government support capacity is assessed by its rating. Rationale for the change being proposed Liquidity crisis will often degrade into a solvency crisis, as seen during crisis Central bank liquidity support can keep banks afloat, but solvency issues require recapitalization, which is beyond a central bank’s powers Also, as governments become increasingly involved in the rescue of banks, the country’s capacity to bail-out its system converges towards the government’s fiscal capacity, and thus its bond rating

38 Resumen y Análisis de Impacto Preliminar
4 Resumen y Análisis de Impacto Preliminar

39 Impact Analysis: Baseline Credit Assessment
Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Impact Analysis: Baseline Credit Assessment We expect impact on baseline credit assessments (BCAs) to be limited. NUMBERS ARE NOT FINAL

40 Impact Analysis: Local Currency Deposit Ratings
Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Impact Analysis: Local Currency Deposit Ratings NUMBERS ARE NOT FINAL

41 Local Currency Senior Unsecured Debt
Panorama | Riesgo Crediticio Base | Apoyo y Análisis Estructural | Impacto General Local Currency Senior Unsecured Debt LGF positively affects senior debt ratings in Europe, but negatively in the US NUMBERS ARE NOT FINAL

42 www.moodys.com/ratingbanks Ciudad de México: David Olivares Villagómez
VP-Senior Credit Officer +52 (55) Felipe Carvallo Mendoza VP- Senior Analyst +52 (55) Busy Juárez Huerdo Associate Analyst +52 (55) Lauren Kleiman Tobal +52 (55) Vicente Gómez Facio Associate Analyst +52 (55) Aaron Freedman Associate Managing Director +52 (55)

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