MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) Fuentes privadas de Informacion RIESGO-PAIS IFI, Coface, MOODYs… ESAN- Julio de 2007.

Presentación del tema: "MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) Fuentes privadas de Informacion RIESGO-PAIS IFI, Coface, MOODYs… ESAN- Julio de 2007."— Transcripción de la presentación:

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2 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) Fuentes privadas de Informacion RIESGO-PAIS IFI, Coface, MOODYs… ESAN- Julio de 2007

3 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) Análisis de Riesgo-País información El riesgo siempre está vinculado a la incertidumbre, que está directamente relacionada con un flujo inadecuado o insuficiente de información FLos países no se van a la quiebra! Walter Wriston, Presidente de Citibank, 1982 F « El riesgo se establece en el hecho que la gente no sabe lo que está haciendo», Warren Buffet

4 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) Mayores fuentes de información sobre el riesgo-país FUENTES DE DATOS Bilateral Club de Paris Bancos centrales Agencias del gobierno Multilateral/IFIs FMI Banco Mundial BPIOECDUNCTADUNDP Banca Internacional Bancos de Inversión IIF Agencias de crédito a las exportaciones a las exportaciones COFACEHermesDucroireECGD Centros de Investigación Rating de agencias ThinktanksIIEEIUEuromoney Global Finance CIROP-ESAN Fuentes oficiales Fuentes privadas

5 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) Fuentes de información global macroeconomica y financiera Fuentes Official 1. Fuentes Multilaterales F IMF F World Bank F BIS, OECD F RDBs 2. Fuentes Officiales bilaterales Country governments (CBs, CIA) ACEs (DREE, Hermes, Eximbank, ECGD) Fuentes Privadas 1. Insurance agencies (Coface, OPIC) 2. Research institutes (IIE, IIF) 3. Thinktanks (Cato, Heritage, Freedom House) 4. Magazines (Euromoney…) 5. Academic centers (Global Finance…) 6. Rating agencies (S&Ps)

6 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) Specialized country risk analysis institutions F IIF (Washington) F IIE (Washington) F EIU (London) F Global Finance-CERAM F BERI (Business Environment Risk Index) F Dun and Bradstreet, Moody s, S & P, Fitch IBCA F Institutional Investor, Euromoney F Frost & Sullivan F Transparency International F Heritage Foundation, Davos-WEF, Cato Institute, IMD, AT Kearney…

7 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) 1. The Institute of International Finance (IIF)

8 The Institute for International Finance (IIF) F El IIF es una institución financiera global con más de 320 miembros de más de 60 países. F Las oficinas se encuentran en Washington, DC. Fue creado en 1983 en respuesta a la crisis de deuda internacional por 38 bancos de países industrializados. F Más de la mitad de sus miembros son instituciones financieras con base en Europa. Proporciona a los bancos miembros con un análisis del riesgo-pais, económico y financiero en países con mercados emergentes. F También sirve como foro de discusión con Gobiernos del Club de Pais y IFIs.

9 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) Miembros bancarios de America Latina en el IFI en 2006 F Mexico Banco Azteca S.A. BBVA Bancomer Grupo Financiero Banamex Grupo Financiero Banorte F Argentina Banco Galicia Banco Hipotecario, S.A. Banex MBA Banco de Inversiones F Colombia Bancolombia Banco Davivienda S.A. F Brazil Banco BBA Creditanstalt, S.A. Banco Bradesco, S.A. Banco Central do Brasil Banco do Brasil, S.A. Banco Itau, S.A. Banco Pactual S.A. Banco Santos S.A. Banque Sudameris Caixa Economica Federal Unibanco-União de Bancos Brasileiros S/A

10 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) The Institute for International Finance F Crecimiento del PIB Real % F Cambia de demanda doméstica % F Cambio en X % F Cambio en M % F PIB deflador F Producción Industrial % F Producción Agricultural % F Términos de intercambio % F Tipo de cambio F Tasa de cambio Nominal efectiva F Tasa de cambio Real efectiva % F Balanza comercial

11 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) The Institute for International Finance F Balanza de cuenta corriente F Financiamiento Externo F E&Os F Cambio en reservas internacionales F Deuda Externa F Servicio de Deuda Externa F Indicadores de Liquidez F Indicadores de Solvencia F Estructura del comercio

12 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) The IIF – el IFI F The IIF has three primary goals: F * to support members risk management, asset allocation, and business development in emerging markets. F * forum for engaging the private financial community in discussions with offical national and international institutions. F * to provide a vehicle for exchanging views on international financial supervision issues with regulatory authorities.

13 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) The Institute of International Finance (El IFI) Activities fall broadly into three areas: (1)analyzing risks in emerging market economies;analyzing risks (2)serving as a forum for member firms on key policy issues in emerging markets finance and regulatory matters; andserving as a forum (3)promoting collaboration between members and multilateral financial institutions.promoting collaboration

14 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) El IFI Two primary goals beyond that of serving as a discussion forum: risk management, asset allocation, and business development in emerging markets F 1. To support members risk management, asset allocation, and business development in emerging markets. To this end, the IIF provides members with reliable data and analysis of economic and financial developments and prospects; economic intelligence on emerging market economies F 2. To provide economic intelligence on emerging market economies: The IIF has established a robust reputation for the quality of its macroeconomic and financial analysis of risks in emerging markets and for its database. In addition to coverage of individual economies, the Institute publishes reports on regional and global financial issues. www.iif.org

15 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) IIFs Outlook of Peru 05/2007

16 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) El IFI y el analisis macroeconomico del PERU

17 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) IIF: Analisis de la deuda exterior del PERU (05/2007)

18 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) El tipo de cambio del Nuevo Sol

19 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) 2. COFACE (Compagnie Française dAssurance pour le Commerce Extérieur) F The Coface Group facilitates and secures trade throughout the world. The Group offers more than 78,000 companies - whether large or small, whatever their business and wherever they are - a range of solutions spanning rating, protection and services, including country risk data and analysis. F Country risk analysis is expressed in a rating/ranking format but based on a qualitative analysis aimed at integrating the socio-political and economic specificities of each country.

20 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) COFACE F 6 elementos clave de componentes de riesgo: 1. Political risk; 2. liquidity and non-transfer risk; 3. sovereign risk; 4. market crisis risk; 5. systemic banking crisis; 6. macroeconomic growth risk. F www.coface.org

21 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) COFACEs Outlook of PERU F Country Rating: B F Speculative Grade F « An unsteady political and economic environment is likely to affect further an already poor payment record ». (07/2007)

22 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) COFACE: Fuentes de vulnerabilidad en el PERU (07/2007) F Vulnerability to exogenous shocks, a downturn of world raw material prices, and weather conditions. F Economic dualism has persisted with a relatively modern sector in the coastal plains and a subsistence sector inland. F The external debt ratios, although declining, are still high. F Although the banking system has been gaining strength, the high degree of dollarisation could jeopardise its stability. F The gulf between the government's pragmatic policies and the aspirations of a population largely excluded from the positive effects of growth still constitutes a major risk

23 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) PERU: Indice de atrasos de pagos 1997-2007 (base 100= 1995) COFACE

24 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) ECONOMIC INTELIGENCE UNIT-LONDRES EIUs Outlook of Peru F Overall Rating = C F Political Risk = D F « With steady economic growth and rising employment, the government does not appear to be at risk ». F Forecast : « losing ground because of less efficient political institutions and some likely populist legislation ».

25 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) Riesgo crediticio y grado de inversión Moody'sS & P Investment Grade Ratings Aaa Aa A Baa AAA AA A BBB Below Investment Grade ("Junk Bond") Ba B Caa Ca C BB B CCC CC C In Default D « caracter especulativo »

26 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) Grado de Inversión B BB- BB BB+ BBB A Fuente: S&P S&P COUNTRY RATING (JUNIO 2007)

27 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) 3. Fuente de Informacion: Standard & Poors

28 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) MOODY´S COUNTRY RATING (JUNIO 2007) Grado de Inversión Fuente: Scotiabank PERU Baa1 Ba2 Ba3 COLOMBIA PERU

29 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) El analisis del Peru por Moodys 06/2006

30 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) El analisis del Peru por Moodys 06/2006

31 MH BOUCHET/CERAM (c) BB- BB Grado de Inversión PERU: FITCH RATING 1999 - 2007 Fuente: Fitch Sovereign Ratings BBB PPK BB+