Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank. Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank Perspectivas Económicas Globales: América Latina y Argentina.

Presentación del tema: "Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank. Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank Perspectivas Económicas Globales: América Latina y Argentina."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank

2 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank Perspectivas Económicas Globales: América Latina y Argentina Pre-Coloquio Centro, IDEA Rosario, 24 de Agosto, 2011 Gustavo Cañonero, Managing Director Chief Economist Emerging Markets Deutsche Bank Securities All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 007/05/2010 Gustavo CañoneroFernando Losada Gustavo.canonero@db.com Fernando.losada@db.com (212) 250 – 7530 (212) 250 - 3162

3 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank INDICE I.G7: Problemas Estructurales y Consecuencias. De EEUU a EU/Japón. II.EM: Creciente Decoupling de Largo Plazo, pero Sincronización en el Corto III.América Latina: Perspectiva Regional IV.Argentina

4 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank I.Problemas Globales y Consecuencias

5 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank EEUU: La recuperación se volvió a desacelerar Source: ISM, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research

6 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank EEUU: Y los pronósticos del crecimiento han caído Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, DB Global Markets Research

7 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank EEUU: La recuperación ha sido históricamente más lenta de todos modos Source: BEA, CBO, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research

8 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank EEUU: En gran parte por el proceso de desendeudamiento privado… Source: FRB, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research

9 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank Source: BEA, DB Global Markets Research...que explica la permanente vulnerabilidad del consumo privado desde 2008

10 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank EEUU: Además, la alta deuda pública limita los márgenes de política y crea mayor incertidumbre Source: usgovernmentspending.com, Fiscal Commission, CBO, DB Global Markets Research Forecasts

11 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank EEUU: La cobertura de salud es parte del problema, complicando la economía política de cualquier solución Source: CBO, DB Global Markets Research

12 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank Ranking de riesgo país: EEUU es sólo un ejemplo (Basado en déficits externos y deuda pública) Source: OECD, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research More risky Less risky 50 377 50 162 102 Numbers on top are 5Y CDS spreads 109 250

13 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank II. EM: Desacoplados pero Sincronizados

14 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank El crecimiento de mercados emergentes también se desacelera, aunque mantiene buen ritmo por ahora Indicadores de producción manufactureraEM: Desacoplados pero no aislados (%YoY) Source: IMF, Haver, DB Global Markets Research

15 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank Source: Global Markets Research Mayor asociación entre emergentes genera menor dependencia hacia los países desarrollados, pero mayor apertura mas sincronización de ciclos Destino de comercio exterior (X+M %PBI) Exportaciones por productos (% PBI)

16 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank Fuerte crecimiento jaqueado por la posible depresión global III.Perspectiva para América Latina

17 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank Source: Global Market Research Crecimiento del PBI Saldo de cuenta corriente Inflación Proyecciones Crecimiento económico sigue pero la desaceleración es inevitable

18 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank Source: Global Market Research Aunque las bases sólidas se mantienen

19 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank En LA, la performance económica reciente ha tenido mucho de suerte y poco de inversión, Colombia y Perú las excepciones Estimaciones utilizando cálculos de equilibrio parcial Avg. Per CapitaGrowth Change Growth2004-08 vsProductionMacroManufacture 2004-20081990-2003FactorsVariablesToTShareResidual EM ASIA5.351.08-1.061.68-1.231.020.68 CHN10.962.373.122.97-2.010.05-1.76 IND6.883.173.623.350.13-0.30-3.63 IDN4.411.19-0.152.850.352.27-4.13 KOR3.91-1.24-2.03-1.43-4.480.446.25 MYS3.89-0.20-5.920.29-0.371.404.41 PHL3.582.56-2.723.80-0.87-0.442.80 THA3.79-0.28-3.34-0.06-1.403.730.79 EMEA4.943.89-0.67-0.750.85-0.925.38 CZE4.803.80-1.552.000.200.192.95 HUN3.031.47-1.02-5.13-0.59-0.929.13 ISR3.081.31-1.251.17-0.270.001.66 POL5.441.98-1.421.390.78-0.621.85 ROM7.417.292.80-2.320.20-1.858.46 RUS7.398.79-2.92-1.556.501.035.73 SAS3.743.880.670.251.30-2.464.12 TUR4.652.60-0.68-1.81-1.28-2.759.11 LATAM5.123.860.852.093.56-0.84-1.80 ARG7.395.930.522.782.121.84-1.33 BRA3.653.28-0.052.540.63-1.781.94 CHL3.81-0.18-1.632.195.32-3.99-2.07 COL3.882.784.121.843.03-0.01-6.20 MEX2.350.870.66-0.010.69-1.430.96 PER6.334.902.172.012.47-0.47-1.29 VEN8.439.400.133.2810.67-0.03-4.64 Estimated Contribution to Growth Acceleration Source: IMF, World Bank, and Global Markets Research

20 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank IV. Argentina

21 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank Argentina: lista para sobresalir o para volver a defraudar! El crecimiento se mantiene fuerte pero las política económica se enfrenta con condicionantes crecientes. El gasto público no ha sustituido ni promovido la inversión privada. Sin inversión, las políticas expansivas generan aún más inflación. Y la inflación es un impuesto regresivo. El tipo de cambio no puede ser la única herramienta para mantener la inflación estable. El peso aún no está sobrevaluado pero su apreciación es muy rápida. La probable reelección con un fuerte mandato de la Presidente CFK puede ser una gran oportunidad para corregir algunas limitaciones del modelo actual. De lo contrario la salida de capitales puede continuar y la moderación será impuesta por el ahorro precautorio del sector privado. El contexto internacional le está dando a la Argentina la oportunidad del centenio…..

22 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank El crecimiento económico post default fue posible dado un tipo de cambio competitivo a nivel internacional, excelentes términos de intercambio, una sólida recuperación en Brasil y una significativa reducción de la carga de la deuda externa. Source: MinFin and DB Global Markets Research Contribuciones externas al crecimiento actual FUERTE DEVALUACION COMPETITIVA – El abandono de la convertibilidad en el 2002 generó una depreciación del peso de más del 100% en términos reales. – Entre 2002-2010 el peso se mantuvo, en promedio, un 43% más competitivo que en la década anterior. Hoy todavía es un 13% más débil que en esa década. MEJORAS EN LOS TÉRMINOS DE INTERCAMBIO – Los términos de intercambio mejoraron 44% desde 2002, a una tasa anual del 5.5%. EL CRECIMIENTO BRASILERO SE DUPLICÓ – Brasil absorve la mayor parte de las exportaciónes industriales argentinas, aprox. 8% del PBI. DISMINUCIÓN SIGNIFICATIVA DE LA DEUDA – Los servicios de la deuda externa disminuyeron notablemente: de 15% del PBI en 2001 a 8% del PBI en 2010. – Del mismo modo, los servicios de la deuda para el sector público disminuyeron del 10% del PBI al 5%. ToT 44%

23 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank Expansión fiscal ha sido uno de los motores de crecimiento El comportamiento de los números fiscales Source: MECON and DB Global Markets Research

24 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank El alto crecimiento económico no generó aumento de la inversión ni de la capacidad productiva debido a la fuerte intervención estatal. El resultado: aumento de la inflación. Notable aumento de la inflaciónCrecimiento sin inversión Source: MECON and DB Global Markets Research

25 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank El financiamiento fácil también se esta acabando Deterioro del balance del BCRA Mayores necesidades netas de financiamiento Source: MECON and DB Global Markets Research

26 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank Mientras tanto, la holgura externa se reduce debido a un tipo de cambio más fuerte y el aumento de la demanda NETA por energía. Balanza comercial y energética Source: MECON and DB Global Markets Research

27 Gustavo Cañonero August 24, 2011 Deutsche Bank La salida de capitales refleja las dudas sobre la sustentabilidad y, eventualmente, puede imponer un ajuste forzado e innecesario. Aumento de la salida de capitales en los últimos meses Source: MECON and DB Global Markets Research

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