POSIBLES MODELOS DE ARTICULACIÓN INDUSTRIAL CARLOS RONDEROS Ph.D Consejo Económico Colombo-Asiático Mayo 2013.

Presentación del tema: "POSIBLES MODELOS DE ARTICULACIÓN INDUSTRIAL CARLOS RONDEROS Ph.D Consejo Económico Colombo-Asiático Mayo 2013."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 POSIBLES MODELOS DE ARTICULACIÓN INDUSTRIAL CARLOS RONDEROS Ph.D Consejo Económico Colombo-Asiático Mayo 2013

2 MADE IN THE WORLD Today, companies divide their operations across the world, from the design of the product and manufacturing of components to assembly and marketing, creating international production chains. More and more products are “Made in the World” rather than “Made in the UK” or “Made in France”. The statistical bias created by attributing the full commercial value to the last country of origin can pervert the political debate on the origin of the imbalances and lead to misguided, and hence counter-productive, decisions. The challenge is to find the right statistical bridges between the different statistical frameworks and national accounting systems to ensure that international interactions resulting from globalization are properly reflected and to facilitate cross border dialogue between national decision makers.

3 EL RETO ¿Cómo lograr cada vez mayores niveles de apertura de la mano de una creciente industrialización?. ¿Cómo fortalecemos las bases industriales existentes en los países andinos?

4 COSTO DE TRANSICION Al abrir sus economías los países reasignan recursos hacía aquellos sectores que son competitivos. Si la reasignación es al interior de los sectores industriales existentes los costos de transición son menores y se realizan de manera más acelerada.

5 ASIA LA REGIÓN DE MAYOR CRECIMIENTO Asia and the Pacific constitutes the most dynamic region in the world today: It has rapidly moved from an agrarian economy to an industrialized economy which has modified its ways of production and consumption and resource use patterns. Domestic material consumption grew at a compounding annual rate of 4.9% over the three decades from 1975 – 2005. The corresponding growth rate for the rest of the world was around 0.5%;(UNEP)

6 CONTINUA The East Asia and Pacific region continues to be an engine of global growth, contributing around 40 percent of global growth in 2012. Driven by strong domestic demand, the region grew at 7.5 percent in 2012 -- higher than any other region in the world. World Bank China is projected to grow 8.3 percent in 2013 and 8.0 percent in 2014.

7 PIB PER CAPITA 20002001 2011

8 PARTICIPACIÓN EXPORTACIONES MUNDIALES %

9 ASIA NO TIENE NIVELES DE PROTECCIÓN SUPERIORES A COLOMBIA

10 APERTURA Y CRECIMIENTO EN ASIA The evidence on this is clear. No country in recent decades has achieved economic success, in terms of substantial increases in living standards for its people, without being open to the rest of the world. In contrast, trade opening (along with opening to foreign direct investment) has been an important element in the economic success of East Asia, where the average import tariff has fallen from 30 percent to 10 percent over the past 20 year-IMF Opening up their economies to the global economy has been essential in enabling many developing countries to develop competitive advantages in the manufacture of certain products

11 EL NUEVO ENTORNO “La evolución de la organización industrial a escala global afecta no solo la suerte de las firmas y la estructura de la industria, sino también define como y porque los países avanzan en la economía global. El trabajo de investigación acerca de las cadenas de valor mundial y la política correspondiente examina las maneras diferentes en las cuales la producción global y los sistema de distribución se integran, y la posibilidad que tienen las empresas de los países en desarrollo de desarrollar su posición en el mercado global” (Gereffi 2005)

12 Consumidores Proveedores Firma Líder Proveedor Llave en Mano Proveedores de Componentes y materiales Precio Firma Líder Proveedor Relacional Proveedores de Componentes y materiales Firma Líder Proveedores Cautivos Firma Integrada Grado de Coordinación Explícita Bajo Alto Grado de Asimetría de poder Uso Final Materia les CADENADECADENADE VALORVALOR MERCADO MODULAR RELACIONAL CAUTIVA JERARQUICA

13 Integración con las firmas globales The global reorganization of manufacturing, which is referred to as the new international division of labor, is considered by some to be the defining characteristic of the latest wave of globalization (Fröbel, Heinrichs and Kreye 1980;Castells 1996; Hoogvelt 1997). Scholars think that manufacturing is now organized through complex networks of firms, which are sometimes labeled as Global (Yunus Kaya 2011)

14 Integración de las firmas Globales Commodity Chains or Global Value Chains (e.g., Gereffi 2005; Dicken 2003). Within these networks, firms from developed economies relocate their manufacturing activities in developing countries by investing in or subcontracting, while they focus on higher value activities such as research and development, and marketing (Gereffi 2001; Kaplinksy 2000). This, then, translates into increasing manufacturing exports and FDI, and expanding manufacturing employment indeveloping countries. Yunus Kaya

15 OMC Global value chains translate into growth, jobs, and development. Better information on their functioning and impact, on how trade opening and adjustment assistance supports the fragmentation of production, and on how economies, firms and individuals may benefit from it could help to strengthen public support for open markets and help poverty alleviation

16 MEXICO CONFIRMA LA TEORIA “La evolución del índice de comercio intraindustrial de México muestra que se ha dado un aumento notable de la parte del comercio internacional que corresponde a intercambios en bienes similares. Ello es un indicador del cambio estructural en el patrón del comercio exterior de México. …..El aumento del índice de comercio intraindustrial es un indicador más del cambio del patrón del comercio exterior que se ha operado en las últimas dos décadas. La expansión del comercio exterior observada se asocia no tanto a factores de ventaja comparativa de unas industrias sobre otras, como lo señala la teoría tradicional del comercio internacional, sino que se vincula a la expansión de modelos de producción compartida y a la especialización internacional dentro de cada sector.” (Moreno&Viquiera 2007)

17 HACER LA TAREA Contrast, there are successful examples of “upscaling” within global manufacturing linkages by Asian countries such as China, South Korea and Taiwan, among others. governments of India, South Korea, Taiwan or China set up state-owned Research and Development laboratories (R&D) while also invested in higher education. Official measures focused on strengthening the network of suppliers to “leading” company through the substitution of imported inputs (parts and components), the advance of science and technology, and regional development

18 ESTUDIO DE 64 PAÍSES EN DESARROLLO 1980-203 The effect of globalization on manufacturing employment is mainly through international trade Yunus Kaya while FDI flow has no effect. FDI stock in secondary sector has a significant positive effect on industrialization in developing countries when added to the models, while FDI flows in this sector has no effect. These suggest that direct investment in developing countries by foreign companies may be less important in the global reorganization of manufacturing than the trade between these companies and the companies from developing countries Thus, integration into the world economy does not appear to have an overwhelming negative effect on industrialization in developing countries. (Yunus Kaya 2011)

19 EL CASO DE VIETNAM APERTURA TEXTILES Y CONFECCIONES Khalisd Nadu et.al (2004). Journal of International Development)

20 MODELO ACTUAL

21 El modelo de ensamble puede no ser la mejor opción pues se necesita que el producto se adapta a las condiciones de país (Consumidor, clima, preferencias). Para ello se requiere que parte del desarrollo de producto se realice en Colombia y ello permite adaptar al mercado local. En algunos casos Puede llegar a ser necesario el desarrollo de un nuevo producto

22 DESARROLLO PARCIAL DE PRODUCTO

23 MODELO DE DESARROLLO INDUSTRIAL The last stage of industrial cooperation is arrived when the value chain of Korea is integrated with that of Colombia, and Korean companies, in cooperation with Colombian companies, develop new market in Latin American countries

24 CADENA DE VALOR

25 CADENAS POSIBLES CON COREA Sector Automotriz Sector Textil Sector Eléctrico Cosméticos Petroquímica Software Industria Gráfica

26 METODOLOGÍA Identificación de empresas en Corea y Colombia Identificación de elementos de competitividad Análisis SWAT Definición de etapas de cooperación e integración de las cadenas. Inversión Extranjera Desarrollo de tecnología