Eugenio Figueroa B. Departamento de Economía Centro Nacional del Medio Ambiente (CENMA) UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE Symposium “ Converging Development” Public.

Presentación del tema: "Eugenio Figueroa B. Departamento de Economía Centro Nacional del Medio Ambiente (CENMA) UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE Symposium “ Converging Development” Public."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 Eugenio Figueroa B. Departamento de Economía Centro Nacional del Medio Ambiente (CENMA) UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE Symposium “ Converging Development” Public Policies for Adapting to Climate Change: Chile March 13th 2008 Santiago; Chile Roberto Pasten C. Departamento de Economía Universidad Tecnológica Metropolitana UTEM

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3 IPCC (2001). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.

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5 IPCC AR4 - 2007

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12 Climate change in Chile

13 Average anomalies for yearly extreme temperatures in Antofagasta, Copiapo, Vallenar and La Serena. Anomalies calculated in relation to the 1961- 1970 period

14 High emissions: A2 Moderate emissions: B2 Negative change (-C)Positive change(+C)

15 Precipitations change Summer (Dec-Feb)Winter (Jul-Aug) Yellow line precip. 15% lower than the current value. Blue line 15 % higuer than the current value

16 Change in the zero isotherm Two months position of 0 isotherm under current conditions (blue line) and under A2 scenario at the end of XXI century (red line)

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21 Change in sea level Rising sea level seems to be moderate Nonetheless, there is a high amount of uncertainty as the following graph shows

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23 Predicted temperature change In the whole country a raise in temperature is predicted in both; high emission scenario and moderate emission scenario (2º to 4º). The largest increment in temperature will occur in the North and the Andean zone. Warming higher in summer (> 5º).

24 Precipitations change Precipitations increases in the North. Precipitation decreases in Central Chile, particularly between the V a VIII regions, and in summer and fall. In the south (VIII to X regions), precipitations decreases at least in 50% in summer but remains unchanged in winter. In the extreme South precipitation rises (about 20 %) remaining stable for most part of the year.

25 Impacts of the climate change in Chile increment in pests either in their number or their peligrosity. Increasing extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, storms Acceleration in the desertification process Melting glaciers Impact in crop productivity could be either positive or negative Reallocation of crops to the South and loss of productivity in the North-Center area Relocation of local and regional fisheries Recreation activities could be affected by total or partial floods. Similarly, the touristic infrastructure could result damaged particularly in the central zone

26 Hydrological Impacts The hydrological system will be affected in the Region between latitude 30 and 40 that corresponds to the high-productivity agricultural region and hydro power generation production. Glacier melting, contraction of snow cover area and reduced precipitations will reduce annual river runoff and water availability in places that is most needed

27 Social Impacts Dr Butler, a senior research fellow in global health, said inequality over access to resources, such as water and food, bred desperation and resentment, potentially sparking terrorism and war. Visiting Africa's Sahel region, Jeffrey Sachs says it's clear that climate change is already driving warfare in Ethiopia and Sudan. This time, peacekeepers, sanctions and humanitarian aid are not going to cut it. Instead, the developed world needs to cut its emissions drastically while helping developing countries adapt— and fast.

28 What can be done? 2 types of answers Adaptation: Any adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploit beneficial opportunities (IPCC) Mitigation: Unilateral reduction in emissions of GHG

29 Politicas de mitigacion frente al cambio climatico En general para paises en desarrollo el centro de atencion a estado en el desarrollo de politicas de adaptacion mas que de mitigacion por dos motivos A) En el caso del cambio climatico, aun cuando se estabilice o redusca la emision de GEI sus efectos negativos se mantendran en la atmosfera por varias decadas B) El Dilema del prisionero: La accion cooperativa para reducir gases es ventajosa, sin embargo mas ventajoso aun es no mitigar si es que los demas paises mitigan, al final se da un equilibrio don de ningun pais tiene incentivos para mitigar unilateralmente

30 Sin embargo esta vision de que los paises en desarrollo se deberian centrar solo en actividades de adaptacion no es correcta por los siguientes motivos A) Bali Road Map B) GHG mitigation can enhance economic growth

31 Que establece el Road Map Para todas las Parte que son países en desarrollo, compromisos o acciones de mitigación nacionalmente apropiados, medibles, informados y verificados, que incluyan objetivos de limitación y reducción de emisiones cuantificados, que aseguren la comparabilidad de esfuerzos entre ellos y tomen en cuenta diferencias en sus circunstancias nacion

32 GHG mitigation can enhance Economic Growth Markets for low carbon products Financial Markets Development Carbon trading Financing of clean energy Lever for reforming inefficient energy systems and reduced energy bills Benefits of Investing in technologies for innovation

33 Economic estimation of energy and climate policies in California: Berkeley Energy and Resources (BEAR) Mode l cap CAT: Climate action team measures

34 Politicas de Adaptacion El primer estudio de variabilidad de cambio climatico en Chile fue presentado al panel de expertos en 1999 Unsegundo estudio fue llevado a cabo por el departamento de geofisica de la universidad de Chile 2007 Sin embargo en este lapso el segundo estudio confirma la tendencia ya observada en las variables meteorologicas

35 Los resultados del estudio de variabilidad climatica y el primer comunicado reflejan los mismos resultados en terminos de variabilidad climatica, sin embargo en todo este tiempo no hemos analizado en detalle cual sera el impacto del cambio climatico, ayn mas en deficit estamos de realizar un analisis de los costos y beneficios economicos que dicho cambio conlleva

36 Understanding the potential impacts of climate change Que areas seran afectadas y en que magnitud Cuales son los grupos vulnerables al cambio climatico What are the options for adaptation Estimation of costs and benefits of adaptation considering the risks and uncertainties surrounding climate change

37 For coastal protection, for example, the avoided damage (the benefits) of climate change can be estimated from the value of lives and infrastructure protected by the sea walls multiplied by the probability of occurrence of the event The cost can be estimated from engineering estimates of construction costs Costal protection, in theory should be undertaken until the point where additional benefits are equal to additional costs

38 Politicas de adaptacion Switch crops, altering the timing of crop planting, reallocating the crops to different latitude and/or altitude Investing in physical infraestructure to protect against flood or building water reservoirs Investment in irrigation infraestructure

39 Some final remarks about public policies to adapting to CC Development itself is a key element to adaptation (promotes diversification of the economy, allow greater investment in health and education, better resilience to disaster or extreme events, and so on It is expected some autonomous response to CC, nevertheless given the constraints faced by the poor people, support from the government will be needed Government has the most important role raising awareness regarding CC (Information dissemination) Adaptation should be integrated in public development projects More technical capacity regarding CC is needed In the same token that is mentioned above, countries worried about adaption will require some support from the international community

40 Muchas Gracias por su atencion Thank you very much for your attention