Latin America’s push to bring Cuba back into the fold Engaging Cuba: Policy Options for the United States, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere November.

Presentación del tema: "Latin America’s push to bring Cuba back into the fold Engaging Cuba: Policy Options for the United States, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere November."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 Latin America’s push to bring Cuba back into the fold Engaging Cuba: Policy Options for the United States, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere November 16, 2009 5 th Floor Conference Room Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 9:15 AM – 12:30 PM Engaging Cuba: Policy Options for the United States, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere November 16, 2009 5 th Floor Conference Room Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 9:15 AM – 12:30 PM Professor Jorge Heine The Centre for International Governance Innovation www.cigionline.org

2 Cuba as an emblematic issue for Latin America and the Caribbean Always been so, but especially so in the course of this decade A post-Cold War environment A more assertive region, with political stability and economic prosperity Diversified diplomatic links and international markets Cuban situation as a relic of an era of regional subordination

3 Latin American and Caribbean Embassies in Cuba Total -- 30Guyana Antigua and BarbudaHaiti ArgentinaHonduras BahamasJamaica BarbadosMexico BelizeNicaragua BoliviaPanama BrazilParaguay ChilePeru ColombiaSaint Vincent and the Grenadines Costa RicaSaint Kitts and Nevis Dominican RepublicSaint Lucia DominicaTrinidad and Tobago EcuadorUruguay GranadaVenezuela Guatemala Compiled using: Cuban Ministry of Foreign Relations Available at: http://www.cubaminrex.cu/English/Emba ssies/Inicio.html

4 Cuban Embassies in Latin American and Caribbean countries Cuban Embassies in Latin American and Caribbean Countries Total -- 31Guyana Antigua and BarbudaHaiti ArgentinaHonduras BahamasJamaica BarbadosMexico BelizeNicaragua BoliviaPanama BrazilParaguay ChilePeru ColombiaSaint Vincent and the Grenadines Dominican RepublicSaint Kitts and Nevis DominicaSaint Lucia EcuadorSalvador GranadaSuriname GuatemalaTrinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela Compiled using: Cuban Ministry of Foreign Relations Available at: http://www.cubaminrex.cu/English/Emba ssies/Inicio.html

5 An issue which generates unanimous support The Latin American and Caribbean Summit in Costa de Saipe on 16-17 Dec. 08 The invitation to Cuba to join the Rio Group The letter signed by all heads of state and government asking the US to end the embargo on Cuba The follow-up with many state visits to Havana

6 Visits to Cuba in 2009 So far this year Cuba has received the visits from: - President Evo Morales, Bolivia - President Fernando Lugo, Paraguay - President Martin Torrijos, Panama - President Rafael Correa, Ecuador - President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina - President Michelle Bachelet, Chile - President Álvaro Colom, Guatemala - President Leonel Fernández, Dominican Republic - President Manuel Zelaya, Honduras - President Hugo Chávez, Venezuela - President Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua - Prime Minister David Thompson, Barbados - and several other Caribbean leaders. ** President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva, Brazil, visited in 2008 Source: “Paraguayan president, tenth Latin leader to visit Cuba this year”, MercoPress, 2 June 2009 Available at, http://en.mercopress.com/2009/06/02/paraguayan-president-tenth-latam-leader-to-visit-cuba-this-year

7 Latin American Engagement with Cuba

8 The OAS resolution in the San Pedro Sula meeting in June 2009 A major breakthrough in lifting the 1962 resolution that had suspended Cuba

9 Cuban Imports: Latin America and Caribbean (in US$million) Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics Database. Available at, http://www.imfstatistics.org/dot/ 20042005200620072008 Venezuela1188.851883.662359.982847.033742.28 Brazil145.149270.051377.582356.236579.533 Mexico194.596243.754213.857208.512339.754 Netherlands Antilles46.41653.03465.54681.34292.865 Argentina100.497106.525105.379110.79192.805 Chile51.69146.84148.73970.72485.732 Dominican Republic19.10513.00317.16540.15166.749 Colombia36.04670.05753.43555.5665.813 Uruguay9.66137.04445.78356.81764.866 Trinidad and Tobago23.11226.40732.63840.50346.241

10 Cuban Exports: Latin America and Caribbean (in US$million) Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics Database. Available at, http://www.imfstatistics.org/dot/ 20042005200620072008 Guyana38.17243.61453.90466.89476.371 Belize36.50841.71351.55563.97973.043 Venezuela105.2785.42730.80549.37862.374 Dominican Republic24.37627.99230.33127.14559.991 Mexico21.15820.343.40315.64953.403 Brazil45.30938.87731.59588.7948.054 Panama0.40814.3419.76823.70922.947 Colombia6.1515.0143.7017.84217.941 Haiti8.0739.22411.40114.14816.152 Costa Rica7.4196.9128.54210.60112.103 Honduras3.4053.894.8085.9676.812 Jamaica3.4463.521.82615.2125.934 Chile0.721.5771.3612.6364.356 Argentina1.3721.5952.3832.7432.354 Bolivia0.3321.241.5321.9022.171 Ecuador0.2460.2660.6351.7471.796 Guatemala2.1583.3182.4012.5671.653 Nicaragua0.5460.3040.8895.6991.466 The Bahamas0.3710.4240.5240.6510.743

11 Mexico’s historical position on the Cuban question Basic principles of Mexican foreign policy Not an issue of Left or Right, but on how to conduct foreign relations Stance of Government of President Felipe Calderón falls squarely in that position

12 Brazil’s and Chile’s strong commitment to “bringing Cuba back in” President Lula visited Cuba twice in 2008, and hosted Costa de Saipe Summit President Bachelet was the first Chilean president to visit Cuba in 37 years (Feb 09)

13 Jamaican Prime Minister Bruce Golding’s position on Cuba Cubans’ sense of ownership of the Revolution Need to respect that and not bet on stirring up further conflicts Start talks between Washington and Havana, but without artificial deadlines or conditions

14 President Obama’s Latin American policy and the Cuban question Despite a crowded agenda, some early signals of interest in the region Lack of movement on trade Mixed signals on Honduras Policy toward Cuba as a litmus test