CBRFC/NRCS DISCUSSION CRFS March 26, 2015 1. WATER YEAR 2015 PRECIPITATION AND SNOWPACK CONDITIONS 2.

Presentación del tema: "CBRFC/NRCS DISCUSSION CRFS March 26, 2015 1. WATER YEAR 2015 PRECIPITATION AND SNOWPACK CONDITIONS 2."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 CBRFC/NRCS DISCUSSION CRFS March 26, 2015 1

2 WATER YEAR 2015 PRECIPITATION AND SNOWPACK CONDITIONS 2

3 FALL CONDITIONS CBRFC Model Soil Moisture November 15, 2014 3

4 WINTER PRECIPITATION 4

5 MARCH PRECIPITATION 5

6 WINTER TEMPERATURES 6

7 SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT MARCH 4, 2015MARCH 25, 2015 7

8 MARCH FLOWS 14-day Average Streamflow Compared to Historical Streamflow 8

9 WATER YEAR 2015 WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS 9

10 WEATHER FORECASTS 10 7 Day QPF Issued 3/26 Days 1-5 Mean Max Temperature Anomaly Issued 3/26 Days 3-7 Mean Max Temperature Anomaly Issued 3/26

11 WEATHER FORECASTS 11

12 ENSO EVOLUTION El Niño La Niña Neutral Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 17 March 2015). 50-60% chance of El Nino through most of 2015 12

13 13

14 CLIMATE OUTLOOKS 14

15 CLIMATE OUTLOOKS 15

16 WATER YEAR 2015 WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS 16

17 CBRFC WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS MARCH 1, 2015 OFFICIAL FORECASTS MARCH 24, 2015 RAW ESP FORECASTS 17

18 ESP CHANGE IN %AVG MARCH 1 VS. MARCH 24 18

19 19 101% 88%

20 Mar 1Mar 24 NRCS- Daily 677610 NRCS- Statistical 590/ 635r NRCS FINAL 650 90% 20 Mar 1Mar 16Mar 24 CBRFC- SWS 650 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 0) 714656606 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 5) 710611614 CBRFC FINAL 710 98% 640 88%

21 21 Mar 1Mar 16Mar 24 CBRFC- SWS 953 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 0) 840771714 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 5) 823711713 CBRFC FINAL 825 84% 730 74% Mar 1Mar 24 NRCS- Daily 790684 NRCS- Statistical 710r NRCS FINAL 780 80%

22 22 56% 72%

23 23 Mar 1Mar 24 CBRFC- SWS 209 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 0) 205178 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 5) 221162 CBRFC FINAL 210 61% 3/1: 193 / 56%

24 24 Mar 1Mar 24 CBRFC- SWS 776 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 0) 689574 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 5) 801562 CBRFC FINAL 725 78% 3/1: 715 / 76%

25 25 55%

26 26 Mar 1Mar 24 CBRFC- SWS 69 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 0) 7570 CBRFC- ESP (QPF 5) 7766 CBRFC FINAL 72 67% 3/1: 69 / 64%

27 27 88% COLORADO - CAMEO APRIL – JULY VOLUME 19871800 KAF / 76% 19901500 KAF / 64% 19992157 KAF / 91% 2012 900 KAF / 38%

28 Mar 1Mar 24 CBRFC-SWS2300 CBRFC-ESP (QPF 0) 21161898 80% CBRFC-ESP (QPF 5) 22861883 CBRFC FINAL 2110 89% 28 Mar 1Mar 24 NRCS- Daily 19251660 NRCS- Statistical 2080r NRCS FINAL 2180 92%

29 84% 29

30 30 Mar 1Mar 16Mar 24 CBRFC-SWS578 CBRFC-ESP (No QPF) 599595548 CBRFC-ESP (QPF) 543575526 CBRFC FINAL 600 89% 590 87% Mar 1Mar 24 NRCS- Daily 556464 NRCS- Statistical 520/ 590r NRCS FINAL 590 87%

31 CBRFC: 88 / 89% 3/1 NRCS: 92 / 93% CBRFC: 91 / 90% 3/1 NRCS: 95 / 94% CBRFC: 210 / 71% 3/1 NRCS: 210 / 71% Mid Month Forecast Values

32 32 67%

33 33 Mar 1Mar 24 NRCS- Daily 493409 NRCS- Statistical 445r NRCS FINAL 480 65% Mar 1Mar 16Mar 24 CBRFC-SWS398 CBRFC-ESP (No QPF) 430398358 CBRFC-ESP (QPF) 460387331 CBRFC FINAL 415 56% 400 54%

34 Mid-Month CBRFC: 33 / 60% Mid-Month CBRFC: 140 / 72% 3/1 NRCS: 38 / 69% 3/1 NRCS: 145 / 75%

35 35 74%

36 3/1: CBRFC: 2140 / 72% NRCS: 1940 / 66% 3/1: CBRFC: 3650 / 82% NRCS: 3520 / 82% NRCS: 665/ 60% 3/1: CBRFC: 630/ 57% Green – Green River, UT Colorado – Cisco, nr San Juan – Bluff, nr Mar 1Mar 16Mar 24 NRCS- Statistical 4150r NRCS FINAL 4900 68% Mar 1Mar 16Mar 24 CBRFC- SWS 5420/5078r CBRFC-ESP (QPF 0) 513048704350 61% CBRFC-ESP (QPF 5) 582046854075 57% CBRFC FINAL 5100 71% 4850 68% 36 Colorado – Lake Powell Inflow

37 Virgin and Lower Colorado 37

38 Lake Mead Intervening Flow Forecast issued 3/16/2015 March:80 KAF / 73% April:55 KAF / 52% May:50 KAF / 66% April - July: 185 KAF / 67% 3/1: 28 / 48% 3/24: 23 / 40% 55% 38 Virgin - Virgin 3/1: 28 / 48%

39 3/1: Mar-May forecast: 135 / 56% med Jan-May forecast: 205 / 66% med Jan-Feb obs: 70 kaf 39 Salt – Roosevelt, nr 3/1: Mar-May forecast: 117 / 109% med Jan-May forecast: 158 / 101% med Jan-Feb obs: 41 kaf Verde – Tangle Ck, blo