NEW ROLES NEW POLICIES Marcelo M. Giugale Director Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Africa Region The World Bank.

Presentación del tema: "NEW ROLES NEW POLICIES Marcelo M. Giugale Director Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Africa Region The World Bank."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 NEW ROLES NEW POLICIES Marcelo M. Giugale Director Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Africa Region The World Bank

2 A “Switchover” in Global Growth 1. Cleaner Balance Sheets 2. Learning 3. Growing Middle Classes 4. South-South Trade 5. Pricey Commodities

3 How Will Development Policy Change? Three Examples 3. A New Commercial Order 1. The Beginning of the End of Poverty 2. Better Governments

4 The Regional Headlines 1. Africa: Take-Off Time Approaching 2. East Asia: A “New Normal” 3. East Europe and Central Asia: Heavy Legacy 4. Latin-America: A New Maturity 5. Middle East and North Africa: One More Chance 6. South Asia: An Opportunity to Transform

5 Thank You! For free downloading of the book, please visit: http://go.worldbank.org/TPPWANWXR0 It can also be read online and purchased at: http://publications.worldbank.org/18498 You can read and comment on it through the on-going blog series at: HuffingtonPost.com and search words “Marcelo Giugale”

6 Source: World Bank calculations on IMF data General Government Debt, Real and Projected

7 Learning from the World Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2010

8 Growing Middle Class Source: World Bank

9 South-South Trade Source: United Nations COMTRADE

10 Sub-Sahara Africa Trade Source : United Nations COMTRADE 91% 3%

11 Source: EIU y Global Financial Data Pricey Commodities

12 Source: EIU y Global Financial Data Pricey Commodities

13 Source: World Bank. Poverty Trends in SSA Share of people living on US$ 1 a day

14 Conditional Cash Transfers Source: World Bank

15 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Human Opportunity Index Chile Uruguay Argentina Costa Rica Venezuela Mexico Jamaica Colombia Ecuador Brazil Dominican Rep. Paraguay Bolivia Peru Panama El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua 92 91 88 87 86 81 79 76 73 71 69 53 51 48 46 Doing Business Mexico Peru Colombia Chile Panama Jamaica El Salvador Dominican Rep. Guatemala Paraguay Argentina Nicaragua Uruguay Costa Rica Brazil Ecuador Honduras Bolivia Venezuela Human Development Index Chile Argentina Uruguay Panama Mexico Costa Rica Peru Brazil Venezuela Ecuador Colombia Jamaica Dominican Rep. El Salvador Bolivia Paraguay Honduras Nicaragua Guatemala

16 Source: World Bank Number of Countries with Fiscal Rules

17 Sovereign Wealth Funds Number of countries and number of funds Source: World Bank staff calculations on SWF Institute data

18 Source: Worldwide Government Indicators, World Bank. More Effective Governments Government Effectiveness: Regional Average Rankings

19 Source: Worldwide Government Indicators, World Bank. More Effective Governments Government Effectiveness: Regional Average Rankings

20 Source: Worldwide Government Indicators, World Bank. More Effective Governments Government Effectiveness: Regional Average Rankings

21 Source: Otaviano Canuto Recoupling and Switchover Developing Countries (growth rates) A ---> B: Reverse coupling B ---> C: Locomotive switchover Developed Countries (growth rates) A B C AC 0AC 1 DC 1 DC 0