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Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos El Niño-Tropical Cyclones/Hurricanes.

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Presentación del tema: "Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos El Niño-Tropical Cyclones/Hurricanes."— Transcripción de la presentación:

1 Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos El Niño-Tropical Cyclones/Hurricanes and Extreme weather

2 Trends in tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes

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10 Frequency and Strength of Hurricanes over the North Atlantic During the last century an increase in frequency and strength of tropical storms could not be proven. Number of hurricanes and tropical stroms in the North Atlantic basin Source: Climate Assessment 1998, BAMS, 1999.

11 Strength ( V max 2 / 10 5 ) of hurricanes and tropical stroms in the North Atlantic. Source: Climate Assessment 1999, BAMS, 2000.

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19 Atlantic accumulated hurricane energy August to October in different ENSO events,

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21 Tracks Density of Atlantic Hurricanes August to October, for El Niño years (top pannel) and La Niña years (bottom pannel).

22 Tracks of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific in two contrasting years. Top: 1975/76 season, cold phase of ENSO (La Niña). Bottom: 1976/77 season, warm phase of ENSO (El Niño).

23 Comparison of hurricane tracks for wet versus dry years based on Gulf of Guinea rainfall. (A) The 10 wettest years and all hurricanes; (B) 10 driest years and all hurricanes; (C) 10 wettest years and tropical-only hurricanes; (D) 10 driest years and tropical-only hurricanes. Number of hurricanes for each category are shown in the upper-right corner of each panel (from Hess et al. 1995).

24 Location of meteorological and oceanographic parameters used in the Atlantic seasonal forecasts by Gray et al. 101 See text for details. 101

25 Annual number of tropical storms in the Northwest Pacific Basin from Two second-order polynomials are fit to the time series shown in the dashed ( ) and dash-dotted ( ) lines.

26 Annual number of tropical and subtropical storms over the Atlantic basin for the period of reliable record. The best fit linear trend is superimposed on the time series. (Figure adapted from Landsea et al. 1996).

27 Annual number of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin for the period of reliable record. Data from have been revised downward to reflect the overestimation of intensities during these years. See Landsea (1993) for details. (Figure adapted from Landsea et al. 1996).

28 Annual number of intense hurricanes that have made landfall along the US East Coast, which has been subdivided into the Florida peninsula (black) and the Upper Atlantic (from Georgia to New England in blue) for the period of reliable records. Figure updated from Landsea (1993).

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30 Extreme rainfall events: Venezuela December 1999

31 Mar Caribe N Caracas DF Cerro El Avila 3-D Projection of Caracas and Coastal line of Venezuela La Guaira Maiquetia Region affected by intense rainfall, landslides, and floods N

32 PLUMAS DE SEDIMENTACIÓN LITORAL CONOIDES DE DEYECCIÓN REACTIVADOS, SEDIMENTACIÓN E INUNDACIÓN VIOLENTA CAUCES Y TORRENTES DE MONTAÑA POR DONDE TRANSITARON LAS AVALANCHAS ÁREAS CON DESLIZAMIENTOS, EROSIÓN INTENSA, ALUDES CARACAS LA GUAIRA MAIQUETÍA EL ÁVILA LOS EFECTOS DE LA GEODINÁMICA EXTERNA, COSTA CENTRAL DE VENEZUELA, DICIEMBRE, 1999 (Mapa esquemático basado en información periodística -prensa, televisión- e información facilitada por R. Sancio y D. Salcedo)

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36 Other extreme rainfall events in Venezuela

37 Another intense rainfal episode: February 1951 Mapa Sinóptico 17/02/51 (CNMH)

38 Rainfall estimated by satellite in Venezuela December 1999

39 Forecast of rainfall (accumulated 24 hours) for 15 December –Global and regional models MGC CPTEC/COLA T126 (100 km) Modelo regional Eta/ (24 horas) Modelo regional Eta/ (60 horas) MGC CPTEC/COLA T062 (200 km)

40 El Niño-regional impacts and variability

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42 Fact: Once developed, El Niño and La Niña "events" are known to shift seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns in many different regions of the world. In several parts of the tropics, and some areas outside of the tropics, these seasonal shifts are fairly consistent from one El Niño and La Niña event to the next. It is important to remember, however, that no two El Niño or La Niña events are identical and that the seasonal shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns associated with them can vary from one event to the next. Thus, when an El Niño or La Niña develops, it does not guarantee that regions which are typically affected by them will be affected, only that there is enhanced probability that this will be the case.

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44 Defficient rain Abundant rain Rainfall anomalies During El Niño and La Niña

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51 SECTORS AFFECTED BY EL NIÑO IN MESOAMERICA Agriculture Forestry Fishery Natural Disasters (drought) Agriculture Forestry Fishery Natural disasters (drought) Health Agriculture Forestry Natural Disasters (droughts and floods) Agriculture Forestry Natural disasters (drought) Agricultura Generación de Energía Desastres Naturales (sequías) Agriculture Health Communications Electricity generation

52 ¿ How muchc did El Niño cost in Mexico? In other countries: (millions of dollars) Bolivia 527 Colombia 564 Ecuador 2882 Perú 3498 Venezuela 72 Costa Rica 82 Argentina 2500 Source: CEPAL, CAF Fuente: Magaña et. al. 1999

53 Summers during El Niño featured severe droughts in most of Mexico Summers during La Niña, back to Normal or aboe normal rain El Niño La Niña Rains in NW Mexico show little Association with EL Nino (lower Predictability).

54 Summers of El Niño Drought in large part of Mexico % Superficie siniestrada Rainfall anomalies during Summer of El Niño Impacts in the agriculture in 1997

55 Rainfall summer of 1982 Very wet, wet, normal, dry, very dry

56 Rainfall Summer of 1997 Very wet, wet, normal, dry, very dry

57 Rainfall in Summer 1986 Very wet, wet, normal, dry, very dry

58 Rainfall in summer 1991 Very wet, wet, normal, dry, very dry

59 Forecast for summer 2002 Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre Very wet, wet, normal, dry, very dry

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65 Impacto en clima/hidrológia Sub región o paísReferencia Sequías severas en años recientes MéxicoMagaña et al. (1999) Sequías severasNordeste de Brasil Hastenrath y Heller (1977), Hastenrath and Greischar (1883), Nobre y Shukla (1996), Silva Dias y Marengo (1999) Disminución de precipitación América Central;- Cuenca del Pacífico Magaña et al. (1999) Aumento de precipitación América Central;- Cuenca del Atlántico Magaña et al. (1999), Carvajal et al. (1999) Disminción de precipitación y descargas de ríos ColombiaPoveda y Mesa (1997) Aumento de precipitación y descargas de ríos Noroeste de Peru- Ecuador Cornejo et al. (1986), Marengo et al. (1998a), SENAMHI (1999), Peñaherrera (1999) Disminución e precipitación, sequias y aumento de riesgo de incendios forestales Norte de Amazonia Marengo (1992), Aceituno (1988), Richey et al. (1999), Nepstad et al. (1999), Meggers et al. (1994) Aumento de precipitación (Nov-Ene) Región de Pampas Argentinas Tanco y Berri (1996), Barros et al. (1996), Nagrin et al. (1998) Aumento de precipitación (Nov-Ene) Uruguay Bidegain y Cafera (1989), Pisciotano et al. (1994) Aumento de descargas Chile y centro oeste de Argentina (Compganucci (2000), Compagnucci y Vargas (1998) SequíasAltiplano Peru-BoliviaAceituno (1988), SENAMHI ( )

66 Impacto en clima/hidrológia Sub región o paísReferencia Precipitaciones abudantes e inundaciones ColombiaCarvajal et al Disminución de precipitación, sequias Uruguay Bidegain y Cafera (1989), Pisciotano et al. (1994) Sequias severasSur de BrasilGrimm et al. (1996, 2000) Disminución de precipitación (Oct-Dic) Pampas Argentinas Tanco y Berri (1996), Barros et al. (1996), Magrin net al. (1998) Disminción de precipitación y descargas de ríos ColombiaPoveda y Mesa (1997) Incremento de precipitacion y descargas Nordeste de Brasil, Norte de Amazonia de Peru y Brasil Marengo (1992), Aceituno (1988), Meggers et al. (1884), Marengo et al. (1998b), Trebejo y Diaz (1998) Disminución de precipitación Chile y Centro oeste de Argentina Compagnucci 20000) Tendencias a sequiasNorte de PeruMarengo et al. (1998a), Aceituno (1988)

67 Climate Trends

68 Patterns of Global Temperature Change °C Temperature anomalies from the period

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72 Climate Trends and extreme events

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80 Observed (20th century) linear trends in total seasonal precipitation and frequency of heavy precipitation events for various region. From Easterling et al., BAMS, 81, 2000,

81 Climate Change and human health

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83 Distribution of Aedes aegypti (shaded areas) in the Americas in 1970, at the end of the mosquito eradication program, and in 1995.

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