Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies

Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Rafael Popper – PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research, University of Manchester

Guides & Handbooks The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (2008) Practical Guide to Research Infrastructure Foresight (2007) Global Foresight Outlook (2007) The Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (translated into EU languages) UNIDO Technology Foresight Training Manual

Process A The EUFORIA case 3

Work plan http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/euforia
Here it is important to highlight that the diagram on the right represents better the interconnection between all the activities in purple (deliverables and reports), in gray (internal meetings at PREST) and in black (workshops and conferences). ON the left it is worth to stop a bit more and explain how was the methodological interconnections among the different activities previous to the Delphi. We should also raise the issue of time limitation that forced the project partners to work on the scenario workshops before the final Delphi report. However, preliminary results of the first round may have contributed in the scenario design. 4

Process B The SCOPE case 5

Validation of desk studies Validation & Prioritisation
Methodology Scanning & Desk studies (national reports sub-contracted) Validation of desk studies (May-June 2005) Drivers & trends (May-June 2005) Scenarios (June-July 2005) Validation & Prioritisation (August-September 2005) Recommendations (December 2005 – January 2006) 6

Process C The iKnow case 7

Example of Work Plan / Logic Chart
8

Workplan The iKnow case 9

A Foresight Process… Example of Work Plan / Timeline
10

A Foresight Process… Example of Work Plan / Logic Chart
Knowledge Generation 11

A Foresight Process… Example of Work Packages (tasks & deliverables)
Work package number 5 Start date or starting event: 10 Work package title Wild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys (at national and regional levels in four countries) Activity Type RTD Participant number 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 Person-months per participant: 2.50 1.50 1.75 0.20 Objectives To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted interviews. To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ). To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions. Description of work Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels. Task5.1: Survey preparation: In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself. Task 5.2: Sampling and identification of respondents: A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes: (i) higher education institutions (HEI); (ii) public sector research performers other than HEI; (iii) research funding organisations; (iv) governmental bodies; (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations; (vi) commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees; (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees; (viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below). Task 5.3: Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, based): As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means are not sufficient. Task 5.4: Country and cross-country analysis: Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports. Task 5.5: Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools Deliverables D5.1: Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery: month 15 D5.2: Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery: month 15 D5.3: Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery: month 15 D5.4: Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery: month 15 D5.5: Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery: month 15 D5.6: Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery: month 16 D5.7: Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery: month 17 Objectives Tasks Deliverables 12

Building a Research Process (RP) Diamond
9 methods 8 methods 7 methods 8 methods vs. 6 methods ?

The Foresight Process Quite often foresight is understood as a process with various complementary phases. Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Miles (2002), Popper (2008) 14

The Foresight Process (R. Popper, 2008)
Pre-Foresight Rationales Sponsor(s) Objectives Orientation Resources Core team * Time Money Infrastructure Cultural Political Approaches Time horizon Methodology Workplan Activities Tasks Deliverables Scope - Context Coverage Recruitment Project team * - skills Partners Sub-contractors Steering Group Experts - Thematic Sectoral - Regional National International Champions Thematic … Panels Methodologists Facilitators Rapporteurs Generation Existing knowledge is amalgamated, analysed and synthesised Tacit knowledge is codified New knowledge is generated (such as the elucidation of emerging issues, creation of new visions and images of the future, etc.) Action Advising - Strategies - Policy Options - Recommendations - … Transforming - Networking - Policy-making - Decision-making Renewal Learning - Process - Products Evaluation Impacts Efficiency Appropriateness Dissemination - Shared Visions - Foresight Culture - … Step 5: evaluating KNOWLEDGE Step 4: shaping the future through strategic planning Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues

How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Objectives and Rationales To map existing strengths/weaknesses and explore complementarities/overlaps of the networking centres/organisations To identify future S&T and socio-economic opportunities and threats that should be addressed To illustrate the unsustainability of the old management and business models and to demonstrate the ‘need’ for international collaboration or cluster formation To function as a forum for involvement and participation of stakeholders in different countries To build a strong vision that the participants of the network/cluster can sign up to To strengthen the strategic capacity of managers of the national centres, as well as national policy makers

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Selection criteria (if applicable!) Futures Require looking ahead at least 10 years, in areas where the outcomes are uncertain. This typically occurs where the future direction of change is rapid, current trends are uncertain or different trends may converge; S&T Have science and technology as the main drivers of change or are capable of impacting substantially on future scenarios; Value-added: Impact Have outcomes that can be influenced, to an extent that is significant for one or more of the economy, society and the environment; Value added: Existing work Are not covered by work carried on elsewhere. However, they must build from areas of active research; Networks Require an inter-disciplinary approach to the science, and bring together groups from academia, business and government. They must not be capable of resolution by a single group; and Buy-in Command the support of the groups most likely to be able to influence the future and be owned by a lead government department.

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Expected outcomes An efficiently functioning network/cluster of upgraded facilities, better placed to: respond to emerging scientific developments and growing multi-disciplinarity meet the demands for new and diverse services ensure better access to unique equipment and data bases attract young researchers, and improve harvesting and exploitation of existing knowledge.

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Sponsors The exercise is promoted by national agencies (e.g. SENA, Colciencias, etc.). In addition, the international sponsors could be considered (e.g. CAB, CAF, etc.). Project team The exercise is organised and managed by a mix of strategic planners from SENA and an national/international consultancy specialising in 3D and Foresight. Duration Given the complicated nature of the issues and institutional landscape, the exercise has 18-month duration. Time horizon 7, 10, 15 years (dependent on the issue under consideration, e.g. platforms, markets).

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Participation Its distributed nature – which is required for local knowledge and embeddedness – has the need for: regular face-to-face meetings and special attention to be paid to communication processes. Steering group In addition, a national/regional steering group is built of: facility/company directors and national policy makers …together with several small national working parties of: leading scientists and trainers research managers.

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Panels / Working groups National working groups are set up around each of the existing centres – in order to: collect and process national data make sense of foresight results in a localised context. There is a great deal of overlap in membership between all of these groups to ensure communication, while the working language of the transnational groups is English. Experts / Members Members are drawn mostly from: research centres, national ministries, and other interested stakeholders, including: business representatives and branch associations.

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting Stage The exercise begins with an extensive programme of deskwork involving: the preparation of ‘future outlooks’ on several of the sub-fields that constitute the area, the mapping of existing strengths and weaknesses, the exploration of complementarities and overlaps across the current national centres, and an international benchmarking exercise 1 2 3 4 5

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting Stage Starting a little later but also working in parallel, a survey is carried out with scientists, industrialists, and public policy makers in order to: capture the likely S&T needs of user communities (the ‘application’ sector) identify key technologies Following this, national and international working groups brainstorm around the emerging results of the exercise with the purpose of: generating topic statements for an (inter)national online Delphi 1 2 3 4 5

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting Stage Delphi is a means of consulting more widely around issues of uncertainty and likely importance. 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 Statement 1 Statement 2 Statement 3 Statement n

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting Stage Delphi is also used as a prioritisation tool, for example, identifying IST application areas contributing to EU goals 1 2 3 4 5 TOP 5 AREAS Education and learning Social welfare/ public services Government Work organisation Cultural diversity

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting Stage Drawing upon the results of earlier steps, the project team draft several scenarios that portray the region’s scientific and industrial profiles in different worlds, depending upon: the level of collaboration between stakeholders, and the governance and renewal of the national centres. These are used to: illustrate to a wide audience the unsustainability of ‘business as usual’, and demonstrate the ‘need’ for (inter)national collaboration 1 2 3 4 5

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Combining methods to: Improve existing knowledge Literature review Benchmarking Gather tacit knowledge Surveys Brainstorming sessions Delphi Create new knowledge Scenario writing Scenario workshops Backcasting Stage The desk-scenarios are used in a scenario workshop to: generate a strong future vision (in the form of a ‘success scenario’) that the national ministries, national centres, and national communities can sign up to, and lead to the proposal of concrete recommendations for moving forward through a backcasting exercise 1 2 3 4 5

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal However, the elaboration of the success scenario on the future network/cluster requires the development of actions under several important topics, such as: design of common research agendas for applied and advanced research; opportunities for acquiring and sharing equipment, knowledge and skills; new access schemes to national centres’ resources; new collaboration modes and diversification of services; increase in multidisciplinarity of research fields; gaining pan-European significance; optimisation of knowledge exploitation and innovation processes; communication across the network of facilities; and design of the infrastructure of the networked facility or cluster (for example, centralized with sub-nodes, virtual, etc.), determined by its function.

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Once (a) the results have been generated and (b) recommendations articulated, the national and international structures put in place are transformed into implementation bodies. In this phase, an important challenge is: to attract the necessary funding – from national governments and the EC – to carry through the recommendations. But with clear plans based upon extensive research and consultation, it is much easier to convince funding bodies of the merits of the network. Product benefits Foresight has created a codified output that is useful for follow-up action Process benefits Foresight has also provided a forum for the involvement and participation of stakeholders in different countries. The strategic dialogue space afforded by foresight has aided communication, understanding and collaboration across geographical and organisational boundaries that would otherwise have been difficult to bridge.

Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Since the network/cluster could become a large facility even with pan-European significance, regular strategic thinking exercises should be conducted for: the identification of major breakthroughs in related fields that might require adjustments of the network/cluster’s vision. This could be done by: launching successive rounds of foresight establishing a permanent horizon scanning unit organising regular monitoring, evaluation and knowledge dissemination forums Etc.

A Foresight Process… Selecting methods
Most Foresight methods are NOT different from those used in other disciplines. Foresighters use to borrow and adapt methods from management, planning and social sciences. The uniqueness of “foresight methods” is the combination of: futures thinking; networking; and policy-making. There are plenty of methods that can be used in Foresight Processes… From methods you think you know... …to methods you think you don’t know… …to methods you don’t know you don’t know…

There are, of course, many other methods that can be used… 33 methods classified by Type of Technique Qualitative Quantitative Semi-quantitative Methods providing meaning to events and perceptions. Such interpretations tend to be based on subjectivity or creativity often difficult to corroborate (e.g. brainstorming, interviews) Methods measuring variables and apply statistical analyses, using or generating (hopefully) reliable and valid data (e.g. economic indicators) Methods which apply mathematical principles to quantify subjectivity, rational judgements and viewpoints of experts and commentators (i.e. weighting opinions) Backcasting Brainstorming Citizens panels Conferences/workshops Essays /Scenario writing Expert panels Genius forecasting Interviews Literature review Morphological analysis Relevance trees /logic charts Role play / Acting Scanning Scenario /Scenario workshops Science fictioning (SF) Simulation gaming Surveys SWOT analysis Weak signals /Wildcards Benchmarking Bibliometrics Indicators / time series analysis Modelling Patent analysis Trend extrapolation / impact analysis Cross-impact / structural analysis Delphi Key / Critical technologies Multi-criteria analysis Polling / Voting Quantitative scenarios / SMIC Roadmapping Stakeholder analysis Source: R. Popper (2008)

The Foresight Diamond (methods by type of knowledge source)
Strongly influenced by imagination FLACSO 2008 Focus on Scenarios Strongly influenced by experiences and knowledge sharing Strongly influenced by discussions and knowledge exchange Strongly influenced by facts & data 34

Building a Research Process (RP) Diamond
9 methods 8 methods 7 methods 8 methods vs. 6 methods ?

Methodology X (Forward)
Evidence + Broad Expertise Wild Creativity Interaction Local Expertise Strategic Creativity Methodology X (Forward) Wild cards Scanning Citizen Panel Delphi SWOT Wild Cards Delphi Expert Panel Citizen panel Large-scale exploratory study assessing the likeliness of occurrence and possible impacts of main issues highlighted by the scanning activity. Workshop-type activity aimed at identifying possible events which may challenge the occurrence of ‘highly probable’ situations. Internal activity (possibly desk-work) aimed at synthesising outcomes in terms of current strengths and weaknesses as well as future opportunities and threats. Conference-type activity aimed at identifying major public concerns on critical issues. Expert panel Reduced group of key stakeholders looking at future implications of main findings. Detailed analysis of main issues around a particular sector/theme of study (sub-contracted). SWOT Scanning 36

Methodology X (Backward)
Strategic Creativity + Local Expertise Interaction Wild Creativity Broad Expertise Evidence Methodology X (Backward) Wild cards SWOT Delphi Expert panels Expert Panels SWOT Citizen panels Citizen Panels Scanning Wild Cards Internal activity aimed at identifying the success or failure of similar policy recommendations being implemented in comparable contexts, and better informing decision-making. Regional task forces contextualising main issues and evaluating public acceptance. Groups of experts looking at future implications of SWOT findings and clustering main issues into broader dimensions, such as social, technological, economic, etc. Large-scale normative study aimed at formulating policy recommendations. Delphi internal activity aimed at identifying disruptive events and situations. Scanning Large-scale activity (e.g. workshop) aimed at identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats related to a sector / theme / technology / etc. 37

EU-LA COOPERATION SCOPE 2015 Scenarios for Research and technology development cooperation with Europe

Project context and objectives
Scenarios of future science and technology developments in developing countries 2015 Project supported by DG Research Directorate K-2 Science and Technology Foresight Objectives To produce scenarios for the year 2015 focused on contextualised S&T developments in selected regions of developing countries; To analyse the consequences of the scenarios for Europe and European RTD policy; To use the above to provide advice to the European Union in the field for RTD policies in relation to developing countries.

Regions and selected countries
Sub-Saharan Africa Botswana Ghana Kenya Nigeria Senegal Latin America Argentina Chile Colombia Venezuela Commonwealth of Independent States Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Ukraine Maghreb and Mashreq (Egypt) Jordan Morocco Tunisia

Regional Cooperation SCOPE 2015 LA countries (Argentina, Colombia, Chile and Venezuela) prepared a common scenario for the future cooperation on Foresight activities under the framework of LARA (Latin American Research Area) 2015

Thematic Areas for Latin America
Biotechnology on agro, health and clothing – e.g. genomic, proteomic ICT – software, services, applications, cultural and artistic content, Communication, Informatics Microelectronics, bioinformatics Natural resources and environmental sciences – e.g. environmental certification of agro-processes, Biodiversity Health Agro-science and agriculture - Food engineering and technology, Food security Energy and gas, nuclear technology Material Sciences - metals, polymers, nanotechnology Natural products – leather, textiles and wood Aquaculture and fishing Space technology Clean technologies – for bio-products and bio-processes Mining Transport Fine chemistry Process engineering Electronics EU Priority Themes Health Food, agro & biotechnology ICT Nanotech. Energy Environment Transport Socio-economic Security and space

Socio-economic Themes for LA
Regional and territorial integration problems Internal exclusion problems learning from EU experiences with NMS Social inclusion Social innovation Economy & sociology of technological change Work and employment Entrepreneurship

Cooperation Drivers 1. GOVERNANCE AND GLOBALI-SATION
2. EDUCATION AND HUMAN RESOURCES 3. SUSTAINABILITY 4. GLOBALISATION, ECO. & IND. LANSCAPE 5. REGIONAL INTEGRATION 6. RTDI EFFORTS PUBLIC & PRIV. SECTOR 7. PRIVATE SEC. & THE LOCAL TECH. CAP. 8. RTDI AND REGIONAL NEEDS 9. DONOR STRATEGY 10. LINKS WITH RTD COOPERATION

Forms of cooperation Strengthening the SMEs especially building capacities (creativity, innovation, design) of human resources Technological transfer Building research capabilities mobility programmes Building capabilities of primary education educators Recognising labs and certificates of the countries Creating a joint observatory for S&T and funds Creating markets and investments

Actions that needs to be taken
Targeting society’s needs Reaching society Mapping and exploiting regional needs and commonalities Strengthening the SMEs Technological transfer Recognising labs and certificates of the countries Creating a joint observatory for S&T and funds Creating markets and investments Creating content and information in Spanish to build Web- based knowledge pool

Cooperación en Prospectiva Euro-latina Flacso – Ciudad de México
ESCENARIOS 2020 Cooperación en Prospectiva Euro-latina Octubre 23, 2008 Flacso – Ciudad de México

Agenda 12:30 Construcción de grupos y dinámica del seminario-taller (5 minutos) 12:35 Ejes para la construcción de escenarios de articulación y cooperación entre la UE y ALC (10 minutos) 12:45 Primera Parte: Elaboración de Escenarios de éxito (60 minutos) Priorización y pertinencia de factores retardadores y aceleradores del cambio (30 minutos) Diseño de Indicadores de logro y estrategias (45 minutos). 16:30 Segunda parte: Presentación de resultados en plenaria

ROLES Each group should appoint a chair and a rapporteur. Either or both of these people may be responsible for writing notes onto whiteboards and flip charts, etc. Chair’s role: to keep the break-out groups to their task; to ensure that all participants have a say and that people are not being excluded due to other people’s forcefulness or superior status, to defuse conflicts. Rapporteur’s role: to keep notes on the process and decisions, and be prepared to report these back to the workshop. Please make brief presentations – 5 minutes at the absolute maximum. Discussion at this point should be mainly a matter of clarification and points of information. Everybody’s role: Remember that you are being asked to participate as an individual, not a representative of an organisation. Please talk on the basis of your views, your knowledge. One ground-rule of Foresight work is that remarks are not attributed to individuals, and people should be free to express their views (and argue about each other’s views, in the spirit of constructive dialogue!). Of course, due attribution and thanks should be provided (unless requested otherwise) for work carried out, data provided, statistical analysis, etc.

Instrucciones 1. Cada grupo elaborará un escenario de éxito dentro de la situación establecida. En cada uno de ellos deberá indicar: (15 min) actores (15 min) mecanismos de cooperación y organización (15 min) temas y focos de trabajo (15 min) factores direccionadores del escenario (LA; EU; EU-LA) (15 min) implicaciones y grandes preguntas. 2. Luego cada grupo deberá generar estrategias para el desarrollo de una serie de factores claves en la gestión de la cooperación: limitantes (frenos) y aceleradores del cambio (motores). Las estrategias deberán disminuir la influencia de los factores limitantes y potenciar la influencia de los factores aceleradores. Los grupos podrán escoger factores pertinentes al caso mexicano dentro de la lista suministrada a modo de ejemplo, o podrán incluir sus propios factores.

Grado de Integración Tipo de Cooperación amplia:
ESCENARIOS FLACSO-EULAKS Tipo de Cooperación amplia: Entrenamiento y capacidades; asesoría y apoyo Investigación conjunta y construcción de plataformas Integración Informal Integración Formal Grado de Integración Tipo de Cooperación focalizada: Entrenamiento y capacidades; asesoría y apoyo

Sustainable Partnership
Type of Cooperation Knowledge Transfer Advice / Support Process Design Methodology support Process Management Training / Capacities Basic Intermediate Advanced Post-graduate Sustainable Partnership Joint Research LA funded EU funded EU-LA funded Shared Platforms Knowledge base Infrastructures Instruments

Type of Integration Formal informal Convenios y Contratos
Desarrollo de instituciones Creación de fondos, Programas de Formación avanzada, Movilidad, programas y proyectos de investigación informal Uniones temporales Eventos científicos Puntuales u ocasio- nales, contactos Personales Servicios de asesoría y consultoría

A B C D Grado de Integración Tipo de Cooperación amplia:
ESCENARIOS FLACSO-EULAKS Tipo de Cooperación amplia: Transferencia de conocimiento; asesoría y apoyo Investigación conjunta y construcción de plataformas A B Integración Informal Integración Formal Grado de Integración C D Tipo de Cooperación focalizada: Transferencia de conocimiento; asesoría y apoyo

1. Taller de Desarrollo de los escenarios (15 minutos para cada factor)
1. a) Actores principales (públicos, privados, académicos, sociales) 1. b) Mecanismos de cooperación prospectiva (y porqué) Mexicanos Nivel nacional Nivel regional Nivel sectorial Internacionales Asesoría y apoyo Entrenamiento y desarrollo de capacidades Investigación conjunta Desarrollo de plataformas de aprendizaje

1. Factores para los escenarios
1. c) Temas y focos 1. d) Factores direccionadores (drivers) Contenido Mecanismos de selección de los temas y focos Latinos (e.g. FLACSO) Europeos (e.g. FP8) Euro-Latinos (e.g. EULAKS)

1. Factores para los escenarios
1. e) Implicaciones y grandes preguntas Política Pública Desarrollo académico Desarrollo socioeconómico Desarrollo territorial

Oportunidades de Cooperación
Convocatoria Comisión Europea FP7 Activity 8.3. Major trends in society and their implications Area Societal trends and lifestyles - SSH Social platform on research for families and family policies – EUR 1.5M (support action) Activity 8.4. Europe in the world Area Interactions and interdependences between world regions and their implications - SSH Geopolitics and the role of Europe in a changing world – EUR 3M (coordinating action) Convocatorias con fondos latinoamericanos Actividades

Reglas de juego de la Comisión Europea
Coordination and support actions (coordinating actions) At least 3 independent legal entities, each of which is established in a MS or AC, and no two of which are established in the same MS or AC. Coordination and support actions (support actions) At least 1 legal entity Reglas de juego desde la cooperación latinoamericana

2. Taller de Estrategias de Cooperación
Los grupos seleccionarán tres factores aceleradores y tres factores retardadores del cambio, según su pertinencia y relevancia en el escenario (30 minutos). Los grupos discutirán la lista suministrada de factores. Podrán añadir factores por consenso si lo consideran necesario (15 minutos) Cada participante dentro del grupo tendrá derecho a 3 votos para elegir los factores aceleradores y retardadores. La votación se realizará individualmente, luego se consolidarán los resultados de acuerdo con el número de votos y se construye un consenso. (15 minutos) Una vez seleccionados los factores aceleradores y retardadores, los grupos construirán los indicadores de logro y las estrategias para cada factor (1 hora)

Factores retardadores del cambio
Comunicación. Necesidad de presupuesto para traducción, sobrecarga la coordinación y debilita la interacción. Demandas presupuestarias emergentes. El proyecto tomó un auge demasiado elevado en relación al proyecto original, requiriendo un mayor presupuesto para su ejecución. La asimetría de condiciones institucionales y capacidades de los miembros dificultan la asimilación de contenidos y la fluidez de los procesos organizativos. La inexperiencia de algunas instituciones, coordinadores y miembros de la red en la gestión de redes de conocimiento de amplia escala multicultural y en la gestión de las pasantitas). La falta de referentes comunes para la gestión de redes de conocimiento multiculturales y complejas. Muchas dificultades podrían anticiparse y resolverse fácilmente si se contara con información previa de como se pueden poner en marcha redes complejas. Disparidad en mecanismos de control de las instituciones y desconocimiento de los mismos. El costo de vida de Europa afecta los recursos para las movilidades provenientes de América Latina. La escasez de tiempo de los coordinadores locales debido a sus compromisos institucionales dificulta la óptima atención a los pasantes. Apoyo Institucional. Usualmente las instituciones participantes cargan al personal con numerosas actividades que disminuyen el tiempo disponible para las actividades de la red. Falta de Incentivos. El tiempo de dedicación de la coordinación no es compensado con el porcentaje asignado. Problemas de visa de AL-UE, especialmente movilidades desde Perú. Se requirieron 4 meses para activar la movilidad Perú España; negada visa de Perú a Hungría; al menos 2 meses para lograr una visa ocasiona dificultades de permiso otorgado por la institución para la realización del tránsito. Perfil Idóneo y Competencias Claves. Dificultades personales de concursantes seleccionados (que implicaron la selección de un nuevo candidato y, por ende, un nuevo plan de trabajo), fueron las principales causas del corrimiento del plan de movilidades.

Factores aceleradores del cambio
Gestión especializada de la red. La conformación de un Comité Científico y de Gestión de apoyo a la articulación de actividades de la Red. Visión compartida de futuro. Identidad de los Coordinadores de la Red con la misión a ser alcanzada, así como la necesidad de involucrar a otros actores y promover la cultura del pensamiento a largo plazo como estrategia de desarrollo social. Compromiso. Dedicación de los miembros de la Red y los Coordinadores. Dinamismo y desarrollo de puentes. Liderazgo institucional y acceso a contactos claves. Respaldo y credibilidad. Apoyo de organizaciones que confían en la seriedad de las academias involucradas. Elevada curva de experiencia. La experiencia internacional de instituciones líderes en la organización de procesos colaborativos complejos facilito la orientación del proceso. Aprovechamiento de la diversidad. La variedad de contextos culturales introduce riqueza de contenidos, metodologías, percepciones y formas de ver las situaciones. Enfoque en el aprendizaje colectivo. El enfoque de la red orientado al desarrollo de capacidades motiva a las personas e instituciones a asumir comportamientos proactivos. Las personas y las instituciones perciben beneficios tangibles a corto, mediano y largo plazo. Contacto cercano preexistente. Grado de Confianza y Conocimiento previo entre los miembros facilita el establecimiento de contactos. Integración social. El tiempo dedicado a las actividades sociales facilito el establecimiento de lazos personales entre los miembros, lo cual a su vez contribuyo a la gestión de las soluciones de dificultades. Visibilidad. El desarrollo de actividades con resultados visibles promueve la cooperación y maximiza las oportunidades colectivas. Aprovechamiento de dinámicas emergentes. Durante el transcurso de las actividades de la red surgen oportunidades no previstas que pueden conducir a resultados de alto impacto y prolongan la vida de la red.

ESCENARIOS DE ÉXITO: CAMINO AL FUTURO DESEADO
Estrategia Indicadores de Logro Factor crítico de éxito

ESCENARIOS DE ÉXITO: CAMINO AL FUTURO DESEADO
Estrategia Indicadores de Logro Factor crítico de éxito Número de idiomas en las que se traducen de las publicaciones de la red Número de artículos en revistas indexadas Resaltar logros en revistas, reportes, publicaciones Reconocimiento Valor Agregado Movilizar network personales y ofertar productos atractivos y de alta calidad Número de invitaciones y participaciones en eventos centrales de prospectiva Priorizar ingreso de nuevos miembros en términos de prestigio y trabajo en el campo Número de solicitudes de ingreso Número de vinculaciones con organismos relevantes (CYT, internacionales, etc)

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Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies

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